Is this method of capping nonsense?

[brumbies]

I came across a tout's writeup which was something like this:

Say the total is 200 and Team A(home team) is playing Team B. You look at all the games Team A has played and saw that only 2 out of 40 games had gone over 200. Out of 20 home games played by Team A, only one had gone over 200. Do the same for Team B and you saw that only 4 out of 40 games had gone over 200. Out of 20 road games played by Team A, only two had gone over 200.

So you play the under 200.

I am pretty sure this is a nonsense way to cap, just like trends. Anyone agree with me? What's bizarre is that this tout has a ytd record of 34-13 using this style of 'capping'. I know, small sample size but still..

[YorkHunt]

Not extremely nonsense...theres a lot more to it than that.

[jgilmartin]

I am pretty sure this is a nonsense way to cap, just like trends. Anyone agree with me?

Yes

[Data]

I came across a tout's writeup which was something like this:

Say the total is 200 and Team A(home team) is playing Team B. You look at all the games Team A has played and saw that only 2 out of 40 games had gone over 200. Out of 20 home games played by Team A, only one had gone over 200. Do the same for Team B and you saw that only 4 out of 40 games had gone over 200. Out of 20 road games played by Team A, only two had gone over 200.

So you play the under 200.

I am pretty sure this is a nonsense way to cap, just like trends. Anyone agree with me? What's bizarre is that this tout has a ytd record of 34-13 using this style of 'capping'. I know, small sample size but still..

The closer 200 to the league's average total, the more this makes sense, and vice versa.

[Stocks]

Write ups are garbage usually whats in the write up is not why they made the pick.

[Pokerjoe]

It's hard to imagine why the total would be 200 between the two teams hypothesized here, but it if is, there's a reason.

[That Foreign Guy]

One assumes in this specific example the rest of the teams in the league play at a significantly slower tempo than A and B?

More generally Data's advice seems right.