Free throw multiplier in the Posessions equation

[tool21]

What do you use for NCAAB and NBA?

I've seen mostly .475 for NCAAB and .44(.436) for NBA. Anybody have others they like to use?

[Arnold]

Here it says .44 for NBA:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APBR

[tool21]

[Actually, Oliver uses 0.4 as the multiplier for FTs. Ken Pomeroy has discovered that 0.475 works better for the college game. Oliver works with NBA data.]

[tool21]

Thanks Arnold, seems like your the only one that can post around here. Seriously, thanks.

I've been using .436 in NBA i'm trying to figure out a good number for College.

[Arnold]

No problem. Just something that I can help with.

[tool21]

That Wiki page is a good read. A lot of soild info for beginners and vets to make sure they got things right. So it looks like .44 for NBA and .475 for NCAAB

[turnip]

I cap NCAA rather than NBA, so Pomeroy is like a demi-god to me and I would go with his number, .475 as Arnold says.

It might be worth pointing out that Pomeroy used to use .42 until he discovered .475 worked better. This doesn't matter if you're calculating it yourself, but some sites with possession data, like bbstate.com, still use .42

[Justin7]

Oliver's book "Basketball on Paper" is fantastic... I'd read that if you are modeling.

[tool21]

I allready have a pretty accurate model without reading any books. I'm just working on tweaking it.

[20Four7]

Justin is a fairly knowledgeable capper, if he recommends something I'd be inclined to listen, tweaking or not.

[turnip]

Justin is a fairly knowledgeable capper, if he recommends something I'd be inclined to listen, tweaking or not.

Indeed, Oliver's book is the bible of statistical basketball research

[tool21]

Thank you for the information

I'm really not into reading statistical books though. I've played the sports i bet on and i think (atleast in my head) i know how they work enough to make a model. My math backround is better than average as well.

[BrUno0]

WHat's the book called?

[turnip]

Basketball on Paper