Sportsbook treatment of the following move

**Indecent** · 01-20-11, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by specialronnie29

suppose book has you labeled as sharp so that even a small bet will lead them to move their line a half pt or a pt or whatever

suppose they have a decently juicy number and you want to make it juicier. you bet the wrong side small so they move the line then you come back on the other side for a much larger amount

how will books treat you here? and what if you have a bonus? i dont care if neither bet counts towards rollover but some will say you are abusing their rules by trying to meet roll faster.

thoughts?

I'd worry about getting labeled a sharp first, before you try to figure out how to exploit it.

**sharpcat** · 01-20-11, 12:03 PM

It would take more than 1 person to move a line enough to create enough value on the other side to overcome what you are paying in juice.

**Paintdog1rst** · 01-20-11, 03:53 PM

To pay that it would be just better to find the better game !

**illfuuptn** · 01-20-11, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

It would take more than 1 person to move a line enough to create enough value on the other side to overcome what you are paying in juice.

False. It is entirely dependent on the size of your second bet. Best thing you could hope to do is pound one side on a market-setting book and then once all other shops adjust their line to match the market-setting book you hit the correct side for max limits at various books.

**ForgetWallStreet** · 01-20-11, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by specialronnie29

suppose book has you labeled as sharp so that even a small bet will lead them to move their line a half pt or a pt or whatever

suppose they have a decently juicy number and you want to make it juicier. you bet the wrong side small so they move the line then you come back on the other side for a much larger amount

how will books treat you here? and what if you have a bonus? i dont care if neither bet counts towards rollover but some will say you are abusing their rules by trying to meet roll faster.

thoughts?

Originally posted by sharpcat

It would take more than 1 person to move a line enough to create enough value on the other side to overcome what you are paying in juice.

Reading is fun. .

I've actually seen books do this. The problem is that they usually cut your limits before/the same time as they start auto-adjusting to you.

**saratoga1927** · 01-20-11, 05:25 PM

This is called the Think Tank! So how does this help anyone or anything other than feed the daydreams of OP?

**ForgetWallStreet** · 01-20-11, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by saratoga1927

This is called the Think Tank! So how does this help anyone or anything other than feed the daydreams of OP?

You're right. This sub forum needs more threads on how the Kelly Criterion sucks and fewer dealing with player vs. book meta-game.

Originally posted by ForgetWallStreet

I've actually seen books do this. The problem is that they usually cut your limits before/the same time as they start auto-adjusting to you.

I should also mention that you are going to be done at the book (at best) when they catch on, so it's not worth it unless this is the only way you can beat them.

**specialronnie29** · 01-20-11, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by saratoga1927

This is called the Think Tank! So how does this help anyone or anything other than feed the daydreams of OP?

sharpcat as someone said it depends how much you have to bet to move the line and how much more you can bet on the new line. for almost all sports you cant flatbet and make money doing this except in NFL, but hard to get a book to move off the 3.

saratoga, the only people who do this are people who have some idea of the true line. and these people are in this subforum. and really it is a think tank question as i am asking whether betting small on the wrong side +ev when factoring in the probability a book will react and if so with what ferocity

**specialronnie29** · 01-20-11, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by ForgetWallStreet

You're right. This sub forum needs more threads on how the Kelly Criterion sucks and fewer dealing with player vs. book meta-game.

I should also mention that you are going to be done at the book (at best) when they catch on, so it's not worth it unless this is the only way you can beat them.

some guys just can't understand the difference between theory and practice

**sharpcat** · 01-20-11, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by specialronnie29

sharpcat as someone said it depends how much you have to bet to move the line and how much more you can bet on the new line. for almost all sports you cant flatbet and make money doing this except in NFL, but hard to get a book to move off the 3.

saratoga, the only people who do this are people who have some idea of the true line. and these people are in this subforum. and really it is a think tank question as i am asking whether betting small on the wrong side +ev when factoring in the probability a book will react and if so with what ferocity

The problem is that if you max bet at a sharp book who will move the line you will have to bet more than 2 times the max on the opposite side in order to overcome the negative value you are picking up on the original bet by getting double juiced.

Apparently you and illfuuptn watched the 60 min. special on Billy Walters

One player alone would have a very hard time moving the line enough to create value on the opposite end, sharp books are much smarter than this. Billy is the dispatcher for a large syndicate and has the ability to have 3-4 players (beards/runners) max bet a line in order to move it enough to create enough value to make the play profitable enough to overcome the double juice.

**frankthetank** · 01-20-11, 07:55 PM

one guy aint moving the whole board, especially if he is limited on action. and if this was the case, you are playing at a mickey mouse operation and I would run!

**specialronnie29** · 01-20-11, 08:37 PM

last two posts are very naive

my original post never said to move line you need to max bet

if book respects your action they may move on a bet that is 1/5th the limit, but may not move if a square bets a line for the limit. i play at a couple of books like this where sometimes they will move line on a bet 1/10th the limit

obviously this is not pinnacle or cris

my br is not at the level where to get reasonable growth i need to try and beat pinn lines, 'micky mouse' books that take 2-5k bets are fine for me and there are 100s of em

**sharpcat** · 01-20-11, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by specialronnie29

last two posts are very naive

my original post never said to move line you need to max bet

if book respects your action they may move on a bet that is 1/5th the limit, but may not move if a square bets a line for the limit. i play at a couple of books like this where sometimes they will move line on a bet 1/10th the limit

obviously this is not pinnacle or cris

my br is not at the level where to get reasonable growth i need to try and beat pinn lines, 'micky mouse' books that take 2-5k bets are fine for me and there are 100s of em

The questions you need to ask yourself is:
- how much does the mickey mouse book move the line?
- how much do you need the line to move to increase your EV after you have paid juice on your first bet?
- how much will you now be able to get down on this bet?

I seriously doubt a book would move a NCAABK spread a half point because you bet 1/5th of their max bet limit and if they did I would say it would be worth looking into.

**specialronnie29** · 01-20-11, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

The questionS you need to ask yourself is:
- how much does the mickey mouse book move the line?
- how much do you need the line to move to increase your EV after you have paid juice on your first bet?
- how much will you now be able to get down on this bet?

I seriously doubt a book would move a NCAABK spread a half point because you bet 1/5th of their max bet limit and if they did I would say it would be worth looking into.

cat

i already know the answers to all these, and for your last point i dont care what your doubts are as it is a fact

the question i care about is how the bookmaker is likely to respond to this over time. it seems you have no experience with this so you do not know.

billy walters has nothing to do with this. justin7 already taloked about this in pinn thread, it depends how youre labeled by the book

im labeled sharp by this book for betting an entirely different sport

**sharpcat** · 01-20-11, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by specialronnie29

cat

i already know the answers to all these, and for your last point i dont care what your doubts are as it is a fact

the question i care about is how the bookmaker is likely to respond to this over time. it seems you have no experience with this so you do not know.

billy walters has nothing to do with this. justin7 already taloked about this in pinn thread, it depends how youre labeled by the book

im labeled sharp by this book for betting an entirely different sport

Well I suppose nobody assits you with your questions because you get a crappy attitude with everybody who adds input to your threads.

Find out for yourself

obviously if the book is moving the line this much on such a small bet amount they are a rec book anyhow and probably will not let you win much before giving you the boot no matter what you bet on.

**specialronnie29** · 01-20-11, 10:55 PM

no one answered with personal experience, but some good hypotheses. meanwhile others say stupid shit or just insult the thread for no reason. cat all your stuff is true but wasnt the question.

**prop** · 01-20-11, 11:33 PM

Are we talking German basketball or something similar here?

?

**sharpcat** · 01-20-11, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by specialronnie29

no one answered with personal experience, but some good hypotheses. meanwhile others say stupid shit or just insult the thread for no reason. cat all your stuff is true but wasnt the question.

I know I got a little off of the specifics of your topic I was mainly responding to what illfuuptn responded.

**specialronnie29** · 01-21-11, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by prop

Are we talking German basketball or something similar here?

?

this kind of reply is what im talking about

what a dumbass

just like any thread where someone says they have a few dimes on a game no one believes them.. unmbelievable

**Inspirited** · 01-21-11, 05:32 PM

We all bow down to you great one, ruler of the betting universe, most intelligent being to ever have graced our presence. Your ways are incomprehensible. You are magnificent. You are most blessed among betters.

**specialronnie29** · 01-21-11, 09:37 PM

now that is a good post inspirited

cmon boys you guys are better than this

lets hit the bookies harder

no hedging futures

no hedging parlays

no hedging teasers

i love beating bookies

**underthe total** · 01-22-11, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by specialronnie29

suppose book has you labeled as sharp so that even a small bet will lead them to move their line a half pt or a pt or whatever suppose they have a decently juicy number and you want to make it juicier. you bet the wrong side small so they move the line then you come back on the other side for a much larger amount how will books treat you here? and what if you have a bonus? i dont care if neither bet counts towards rollover but some will say you are abusing their rules by trying to meet roll faster. thoughts?

if they know your acct number they will not allow that. and if you try another acct they will know your ip. and if you do it with buddies they will figure it out and dosconecct your acct.

this is not smart to do as it will cost you places to play.

but what you can do is bet into the bigger places like cris with max plays and move there number and as others follow cris you can go back and hit the locals or smaller shops with bigger bets or a bigger total.

this happens

**underthe total** · 01-22-11, 01:23 AM

however the shop could determine that you are no longer taking sharp numbers, so it want last.

**underthe total** · 01-22-11, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by illfuuptn

False. It is entirely dependent on the size of your second bet. Best thing you could hope to do is pound one side on a market-setting book and then once all other shops adjust their line to match the market-setting book you hit the correct side for max limits at various books.

i missed this post , he said same thing

**underthe total** · 01-22-11, 01:33 AM

sharp if you bet the max at the cris on 2 accts the line will move in every sport. especially if you are labelled as sharp with them. then you will be able to go back and bet 20x's that amount at various books, locals, and other offshore accts act the better numbers. this is something that happens.

**Tomahawk** · 01-22-11, 01:53 AM

I'm a sharp, since I made 19.13% profit in 2010, but they only move the line 30% of the time I place a bet, I just make a bet and a minute after the line is changed even if I place a 5 dollar bet. But this is only at the sportsbook I play at, the others won't follow the linemovement.

If you are a sharp with a bonus it is not advisable to generate line movement with a bonus, since that's called bonus abuse and they can take it away with no question asked.