factoring in past ATS for teasers?

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  • subs
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 1412

    #1
    factoring in past ATS for teasers?
    hi

    what u guys think?

    say historically a subset ( say line =-1) was 45% ATS would u factor this in to your break even calculations?

    100 - ATS + cumulative push% - break even = edge doesn't look right in some spots
    so something like (100 - 45 + 20 - 72 = 3)

    or 50% + cumulative push% - break even = edge doesn't look right in some spots
    or something like (50 + 20 - 72 = -2)

    or something very clever in between?

    much appreciated indeed
    Last edited by subs; 01-16-11, 11:17 AM.
  • subs
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 1412

    #2
    did i ask a stupid question? or just a boring 1?
    Comment
    • bztips
      SBR Sharp
      • 06-03-10
      • 283

      #3
      In this forum it's uninteresting because it's just a mechanical system that probably relies on a mined subset of data.
      Comment
      • subs
        SBR MVP
        • 04-30-10
        • 1412

        #4
        Originally posted by bztips
        In this forum it's uninteresting because it's just a mechanical system that probably relies on a mined subset of data.
        my bad should have explained much better. there r no mines bro - just straight lines (eg line = -1) that is it. not even home away split. the numbers r hypothetical. just trying to estimate my edge as tightly as possible...

        as u know the margins r tight. kelly kelly kelly needs an accurate edge.
        if u were me would u trust the answers in PT?

        ps edited 1st post to make it clear.
        Last edited by subs; 01-16-11, 11:17 AM.
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