Any advice for a new guy?

[BetFULike]

Thought I already posted this. Anyway I am a math guy experienced with excel. Handicapping looks a very interesting challenge. Is there any simple models available to get me started? Any other thoughts for a newbie?
Thanks in advance.

[BetFULike]

Test reply to see if it working.

[Justin7]

Read everything you can find. Don't place a bet until you can prove to a math professor that it is a good one. This might keep you from making most bets, which is a good thing.

[subs]

have a look at kenpom for a model that still does not win... realise what ur up against. read about markets adjusting very quickly to winning models.... reach for lower hanging fruit to begin with?

ummm oh no that was just me

good luck buddy

[Kaplan]

If you're gonna do this and prosper, you will need alot of time. That's the #1 reason I can beat the odds. I bet NCAA football only. That allows me the time needed to dream up formula's, backtest them, and decide to keep or discard. 9 out of ten times, you'll be throwing away 40 hours of research after you backtest it. It is very interesting, and very gratifying when you figure out a way to beat the line. The money just becomes a by-product. Good Luck.

[Inspirited]

You might want to read Conquering Risk.

[rumple]

Dont do it gambling ruins lives.

[sideloaded]

Dont do it gambling ruins lives.

+1.

[Borat38]

Dont do it gambling ruins lives.

Says the guy who has almost 1,500 posts on a gambling forum

I use Excel myself to backtest theories, but they're mostly simple formulas for placing halftime wagers, my bread and butter.

[DeeVeeOSs]

Learn about yourself first. Learn self-control, discipline, temper-control and all those types of things.
It's hard enough getting burned in a 3 point SO comeback, to have just flat out STUPID/CARELESS choice making hindering the bucks as well.

Learn the line between "scared money never wins" and being conservative as you can.


This is all about harnessing as much control as possible. We beg on psychology, we beg on math. But the first piece of EVERY wager you make, starts with YOU. Again, this can be good news, or it can be bad news.

Make sure that YOU have no holes first and foremost, and then move on to other pockets that might have holes like your study, or like your bet allocation. (4 in 7 does nobody any good if you bet on the 3/7 that lost.)

Aside from that? Take this very seriously.
The same function that that dude warned you about "lack of self control in gambling ruins lives", is the same function that ultimately is the starting point for making money, "a solid foundation in self control will make this a worthwhile enjoyable endeavour."

Lastly, as the other dude said, make the enjoyment of this your #1 goal. Doing this to make money, (which can easily translate to "doing this to earn back the money you lost yesterday), is NOT a good premise.
You can see how it might interfere with rule #1 which is CHECK YOURSELF FIRST.

G'Luck Unless You Fade Me!

[BetFULike]

Thanks to all for the advice. You obviously take this stuff very serious. It soiunds like I have a lot of work ahead of me. Thanks again, love the passion.

[sneak-a-peak]

You can start by becoming "Pro" here at SBR.

1. Send $200 to Bookmaker (solid) or any other A+ book here . You will get a little bonus also.

2. Post something (hopefully useful) on the forum everyday.

3. Play the "Pro" trivia.

3. For posting you'll get 12 points a day, 84 a week and over 4,300 in a year.

4. I'm thinkin most people can squeeze out over a extra 1300 points in trivia and other things around here to get you to a total of 5600 points in a year.

5. As you go along you can cash those points in for $500 in Bookmaker "cash" by the end of the year at the current rates.

6. Most importantly read and learn as much as you can here. There is a ton of good info here and you can really learn some great angles that will help you pick winners with the right mindset, mathematical skills and approach.

Whats stated above is worth just penny's but the info on this forum is very valuable and the point I was making with it all is- start with something, do work, learn and find certain ways to turn a little into a little more.

GL

[caesarelgrande]

Read everything you can find. Don't place a bet until you can prove to a math professor that it is a good one. This might keep you from making most bets, which is a good thing.

Can't agree with you more.

[Jhaug98]

my advice, go with your first instinct. I've had numerous times when I seen something that I liked and I stayed away from it. You're first instinct is usually the more accurate one and correct one. Don't stray from it!

[wrongturn]

Use Matchbook for real betting, and when you feel the urge to chase, use SBR points only. Thank me later.

[moneymaker521]

my advice, go with your first instinct. I've had numerous times when I seen something that I liked and I stayed away from it. You're first instinct is usually the more accurate one and correct one. Don't stray from it!

definitely, and don't let some handicapper change your opinion on a pick, for the most part they are average at best

[DeeVeeOSs]

definitely, and don't let some handicapper change your opinion on a pick, for the most part they are average at best

That's exactly true because if you change to a capper with the opposite pick, 2 things can happen:

1. The capper is correct and you've just ended up setting back your progress in confidence.
ie. "aw dammit, everyone is always more right than me. I may as well just tail everyone else."

2. The capper is incorrect, you lose your bet and you cuss out the capper and yourself for being wrong and not trusting yourself.

Either way, it leads to an insecurity that we can't afford to be there.
It's all directly tied into "go with your first instinct."

The more times you ride a capper and win/lose the less that instinct will grow.

In other words if you tail cappers enough times, your first instinct will always be BOTH teams and that helps like a hole in your head.

[brandonrev777]

learn to ride hot streaks and minimize cold streaks

[Timmah2483]

new guy advice, from a newer guy

[AS4]

That's exactly true because if you change to a capper with the opposite pick, 2 things can happen:

1. The capper is correct and you've just ended up setting back your progress in confidence.
ie. "aw dammit, everyone is always more right than me. I may as well just tail everyone else."

2. The capper is incorrect, you lose your bet and you cuss out the capper and yourself for being wrong and not trusting yourself.

Either way, it leads to an insecurity that we can't afford to be there.
It's all directly tied into "go with your first instinct."

The more times you ride a capper and win/lose the less that instinct will grow.

In other words if you tail cappers enough times, your first instinct will always be BOTH teams and that helps like a hole in your head.

I just joined the forums a few days ago and have been reading over a lot of threads here trying to gain as much knowledge as possible. The few posts that I have read in this thread from you have been as great as I've read so far. Thanks for all the advice man. If I fully understood the SBR Points and system going on, I would give you some but I've just been focusing on the betting advice so far and not the whole SBR system so I'm still a little lost on that. Anyway thanks for the words of wisdom.

[DeeVeeOSs]

I just joined the forums a few days ago and have been reading over a lot of threads here trying to gain as much knowledge as possible. The few posts that I have read in this thread from you have been as great as I've read so far. Thanks for all the advice man. If I fully understood the SBR Points and system going on, I would give you some but I've just been focusing on the betting advice so far and not the whole SBR system so I'm still a little lost on that. Anyway thanks for the words of wisdom.

Real cool man. I definitely appreciate the feedback.
Glad that you got something from it.

Take care and good luck.

[TCMBob]

If you're gonna do this and prosper, you will need alot of time. That's the #1 reason I can beat the odds. I bet NCAA football only. That allows me the time needed to dream up formula's, backtest them, and decide to keep or discard. 9 out of ten times, you'll be throwing away 40 hours of research after you backtest it. It is very interesting, and very gratifying when you figure out a way to beat the line. The money just becomes a by-product. Good Luck.

What's your % over/under to keep a backtest, and when backtesting do you input weekly stats up till the back test or just season stats?

[Salmon Steak]

I would just try to beat the spread picks/totals (-110) right now. Use excel to see how you do. Make picks for a reason and don't just guess. You will need to hit at least about 54% long term to be profitable. You will also want to make as many plays as possible to have more opportunities for making money. I make a good hundred plays a week and only hit about 55% ATS right now though I trying to do better all the time. NCAA basketball might be a good sport to start with. I would not use real money till you have at least 1000 plays in a datasheet. You probably will want as many games on record as possible though. Use the same unit size on everything. Use your brain... if you don't have a good one I would just buy bonds. Good luck

[dbDan]

learn data mining.

[Buried_PIRATE]

learn data mining.

Data mining is hard stuff

where is the SBR tutorial on neural networks

[Kaplan]

What's your % over/under to keep a backtest, and when backtesting do you input weekly stats up till the back test or just season stats?

Season stats are worthless, atleast to my way of handicapping. As far as %, I assume you are asking what kind of winning % I like to find before I incorporate a certain formula into my capping. I look for 60%. Only betting one sport limits the amount of games I have to invest in. I need a very strong ROI to make it worth the countless hours I spend doing this. A guy who bets year round can make a nice profit with a lower winning percentage due to thelarge amount of wagers. On the other side, I need a big return in a short season.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Read everything you can find. Don't place a bet until you can prove to a math professor that it is a good one. This might keep you from making most bets, which is a good thing.

Disagree.

OP, skip the losing ideas.
That leaves you with reading about 1% of what is written about sportsbetting.