Bonus whore profit maximization problem

[xyz]

The problem is about the tradeoff between the speed at meeting rollovers and the actual profit earned per deposit. Here is a specific example, Bob deposits $500 for a $200 cash bonus with rollover of $7k. He can arb (assume edge of 0%) to meet the rollover in 3 months to earn the full $200. Or he can bet with a slight negative edge of -0.5% to meet the rollover in 3 weeks, the expected profit is $200-$7k*0.5%=$165. Clearly if you can stomach the variance of betting at slight negative edge, you should choose the second option. What are your takes on this? Thanks.

[Thremp]

Yes.

[Justin7]

The best way to churn through these rollover problems is to risk both deposit + bonus on your first bet. If you lose, to avoid rollover and might get offered a re-up bonus. There are lots of ways to do this that keep risk at a reasonable level. The bigger issue then becomes how quickly you can move money around to use these various bonuses.

[xyz]

Moving money is definitely a key problem for a bonus whore's operation. The other problem is getting payout-deposit per month to a reasonable positive number to keep things going. Having too much money uncollected due to rollover offshore is a scary problem.

[Thremp]

The best way to churn through these rollover problems is to risk both deposit + bonus on your first bet. If you lose, to avoid rollover and might get offered a re-up bonus. There are lots of ways to do this that keep risk at a reasonable level. The bigger issue then becomes how quickly you can move money around to use these various bonuses.

Share a few. Three or four should be enough for a "expert" such as yourself.

[Data]

Taking $165 is the same as borrowing at 35% per year. This is fairly expensive and therefore makes sense only if the funds are limited and a cheaper credit is unavailable.

[Justin7]

Share a few. Three or four should be enough for a "expert" such as yourself.

Would you like me to write an article on this for SBR's front page? Or perhaps a short e-book with a broader approach to sportsbook whoring?

[Socrates]

Interesting.

[RickySteve]

Taking $165 is the same as borrowing at 35% per year. This is fairly expensive and therefore makes sense only if the funds are limited and a cheaper credit is unavailable.

101% APR, not 35%.

[Resler]

Would you like me to write an article on this for SBR's front page? Or perhaps a short e-book with a broader approach to sportsbook whoring?

YES!!!!!!!
Bonus whoring is how I started my poker career and accumulated a healthy bankroll by bonus whoring alone. I would love to apply that strategy to sports betting.

[Thremp]

Would you like me to write an article on this for SBR's front page? Or perhaps a short e-book with a broader approach to sportsbook whoring?

I'd like you to stop being intellectually dishonest and making statements that you cannot possibly back up.

Considering you already wrote a book about handicapping, I think your snark is a little uncalled for.

I'll sum up your ridiculous statement into a single concise rule: "Don't let one account get too big. "Big" being dependent on a host of factors among them being solvency, ease of withdrawal, and Kelly BR." For the sake of this argument we'll assume that gnoming doesn't exist as that raises a ton of additional factors that are only pertinent to the expert, and not a novice.

[Justin7]

I'd like you to stop being intellectually dishonest and making statements that you cannot possibly back up.

Considering you already wrote a book about handicapping, I think your snark is a little uncalled for.

I'll sum up your ridiculous statement into a single concise rule: "Don't let one account get too big. "Big" being dependent on a host of factors among them being solvency, ease of withdrawal, and Kelly BR." For the sake of this argument we'll assume that gnoming doesn't exist as that raises a ton of additional factors that are only pertinent to the expert, and not a novice.

And I know you don't need advice on reducing risk on bonus maximizing... So I'd call first snark on you, for asking for it.

I agree with your rule.

My risk statement was more geared towards small/medium players. If you have a 10k bank, and send out 1k deposit and get a 300 bonus, it isn't practical to take a naked position on one event for your whole deposit.

[Thremp]

Wow. Overbetting Kelly isn't good?

Thanks for your awesome insight Justin7!!!!

Think Tank is lucky to have such an esteemed writer post here.

[Justin7]

Wow. Overbetting Kelly isn't good?

Thanks for your awesome insight Justin7!!!!

Think Tank is lucky to have such an esteemed writer post here.

You are truly a master of the obvious. Of more interest are ways for a smaller player to limit his volatility while maximizing his bonus gain. But I'll save that material for the publication, which I will dedicate to you. You do occasionally prompt good ideas.

[Thremp]

I'll write the whole chapter for you in two words: deterministic arbitrage.

Put me next to TomCowley/IrishTim/Billthecop.

[Justin7]

I'll write the whole chapter for you in two words: deterministic arbitrage.

Put me next to TomCowley/IrishTim/Billthecop.

I look forward to reading this. But at risk of stating the obvious, there are other strategic considerations. do I want to get in and out quickly to maximize a bonus, or do I want to play there long-term (if their lines offer value)? What types of bets set of flags for that book, that get you tossed earlier? How would I change bets if they focus on net win/loss (like Bodog) or are more worried about BTCL (like SIA, which used to be more net win/loss)?

[Thremp]

Poseur alert.

I thought you were writing a e-book on bonus whore maximization, not writing a book about sportsbetting?

Let's take a look at the title of the thread: " Bonus whore profit maximization problem "... Bizarre. Why would consider line value for a "bonus whore"? Wouldn't evaluating lines for intrinsic value be a bit beyond their scope? Didn't I answer the prior question with "Yes"? Volume is key to making a shit ton of money as a bonus whore. The flag question is reasonable. Too bad its pointless for a novice. As this requires extensive expertise to answer and is unsuited for a bonus whore as well. If you'd like to continually update your guide to stay abreast of the risk management group at every sportsbook and consolidate that information. Go for it.

You pose a lot of questions that are of little to no concern to the bonus whore while masquerading as an expert, anyone with experience can see through this obfuscation that your attempting. You won't write an ebook. No one will care if you do. This information is freely available at dozens of spots on the internet. Stop masquerading as a know it all.

[Justin7]

Poseur alert.

I thought you were writing a e-book on bonus whore maximization, not writing a book about sportsbetting?

Let's take a look at the title of the thread: " Bonus whore profit maximization problem "... Bizarre. Why would consider line value for a "bonus whore"? Wouldn't evaluating lines for intrinsic value be a bit beyond their scope? Didn't I answer the prior question with "Yes"? Volume is key to making a shit ton of money as a bonus whore. The flag question is reasonable. Too bad its pointless for a novice. As this requires extensive expertise to answer and is unsuited for a bonus whore as well. If you'd like to continually update your guide to stay abreast of the risk management group at every sportsbook and consolidate that information. Go for it.

You pose a lot of questions that are of little to no concern to the bonus whore while masquerading as an expert, anyone with experience can see through this obfuscation that your attempting. You won't write an ebook. No one will care if you do. This information is freely available at dozens of spots on the internet. Stop masquerading as a know it all.

My apologies. I look at the big picture, not just maximizing profits through one technique. If you can routinely find 53% plays at market price, and you focus on bonus whoring, the loss of outs will cost you more than the gains. Most seasoned sports bettors would weight that, but not if you focus only on bonuses. Do you handicap? Or only grind/arbitrage (there's nothing wrong with that, but it is very different from what focus my energies).

Sure, there is plenty I don't know. I learn new things every day. I agree that volume is key for bonus whores. Low-yield volume also is of value to winning players. If you put in 100 bets hitting 60%, many books will get alarmed. If you put in 1000 bets hitting 54% (with a wide variety of crap thrown in there, like parlays and exotics), they are more likely to throw their hands up in the air, and ignore you.

[subs]

Thremp are you still pissed that you got banned again at 2+2? or is your aim to get banned everywhere? i hope bro that you don't cos...

well ur funny in a kinda horrible, trollish way. don't know why u hate justin so much, dude is helpful, polite and, contrary to what you are saying, well informed.

there are way way better people here to dis.

naaaaa screw it. ding ding round 2!

[legendmatt34]

Its really not that complex..

[wrongturn]

I think the first choice is better because 1) chance to complete rollover quicker 2) chance to lose money in 2nd choice.

[Thremp]

My apologies.

No problem. Just try to stay on topic and not post useless self-evident shit. The forum will be better for it.

[goucla]

i think that if you're good with willpower and math you could turn 100,000 into 125,000 assuming you don't get ripped off

[stefan084]

I am not an expert or even close to one so I appreciate your videos,etc Justin. It has helped me so far and I will continue to absorb the info to hopefully get a better handle on sports betting. Thanks and keep it up.( By the way, yes I would appreciate bonus whoring info) Thremp you seem like a dick but seem to know what you're talking about,write an e-book or something and I'll study that too

[Peregrine Stoop]

thremp and justin7 sitting in a tree
K I ....

[dialup_king]

The best way to churn through these rollover problems is to risk both deposit + bonus on your first bet. If you lose, to avoid rollover and might get offered a re-up bonus. There are lots of ways to do this that keep risk at a reasonable level. The bigger issue then becomes how quickly you can move money around to use these various bonuses.

i heard it's a bad idea to put you whole balance on one bet, especially if it's a rogue line.