does it work?
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Of course. If any donk's going to take -111 at Pinnacle when there are tons of other books offering -110 and Pinnacle doesn't want that exposure, Pinnacle can simply lay it off somewhere at -110 and ensure themselves a small profit.Comment -
is grass green?Comment -
There are often issues more important to a player than the penny, especially availability of funds, but it's certainly going to cut down on any -111 money. Of course, there are doubtless people who read that as "stopper, they don't want the wager, so I should give it to them!"Comment -
sa/ny game today: -5-111
cris and greek were at -5-110Comment -
pinnys stopper was 4-0 last nightComment -
What´s a "Pinny stopper"? Are they taking more juice at specific bets to avoid action?Comment -
esample: if the market price on a game is -5-110 and pinny moves to -5-111 and stays there for a long time then that is the right side for the gameComment -
OK, I understand. To say it´s that easy to pick the right side seems to me like taking that information a bit far though. But that´s just my opinion.Comment -
Not always, sometimes it's yellow or even brown - guess who hasn't been getting enough rain recently? If you lay chalk or paint on it it could appear white or blue or red.
It is a semi-plausible theory. Why wouldn't they juice it further though if they think that is the right side?Comment -
If Pinny offers -111/+101 as a stopper, they get almost no bets at -111. They do get some at +101.
If they offered -112/+102, they would still get almost nothing at-112. The same chumps that lay -111 will lay -112 when -110 is everywhere... but Pinnacle's chump ratio is less than others. They would get almost the same volume on both sides at -112/+102 as at -111/+102.
The side they are offering +101/+102, they will get much more action.
Consider this position:
At an average price of -107/+103, Pinny takes 100k on fav -107, 50k on dog +103. They don't want a 50k naked position on a game where they have no opinion. The price crept up, and they put up the stopper: -111/+101 when most of the market is -110/-110. If the fav wins, they are down 50k. If the dog wins, they win 52k.
2 hours to post: In the next hour, they take at 10k at -111 and 40k at +101. On this 1 hour of bets, their (1-hour) position is fav: win 30k; dog: lose 29.3k. The new net position (1 hour before post) is: Fav wins: -20k; dog: win 22.7k. In the last 10 minutes, they might take effective 0-juice positions to lower the volatility to as close to 0 as they choose...
The stopper doesn't prevent all bets at that price, but it drastically slows the flow of money on that side. And, they could usually lay off as much as they want at the market price of -110. Offering -112/+102 instead of -111/+101 means they pay a higher premium to reduce risk, with no real added benefit.Comment -
How come whenever I bet at Pinny the line moves? Where are these lines they put up and never adjust? Maybe Pinny just taking such small volume.Comment -
You're right. That is why the boards lights up like crazy right before events start. All the manual movement.
Thanks again J7.Comment -
I love the inside information. Thanks J7!Comment -
You're right. I hate money as well. How about a 50k bet to settle this?
I'm a poor man. So lets just check a random NCAABB ML/Side/Total on my account in the last hour. Different games for each. Selected via RNG for roto number for each bet type in the last hour. You ship all three the money is yours.
Or are you suggesting that they only manually move NFL/CFB/NBA. In which case, I'd need to get more robusto, but we can test this as well on a regular limit (or blue circle game), maybe I can get some backers (since I don't bet and all).Comment -
Try this test:
Put in a limit bet on an on an NCAAB side in the morning. Say, a 2k bet at 10am. How much does it move on a 10-cent line? 7 cents? If it moves seven, they respect you. If it moves less, they think you're a chump. If the game goes off-line, they really respect you. It is all formula driven, usually with no human intervention.
Put in a limit bet 20 minutes before post in NCAAB. It doesn't move 7 cents anymore does it? Even though you are betting 5k? It will still move (or it may not, depending on their position and the market), but it probably isn't moving on a formula like it is early.
You might see it go on auto-pilot defense on the last 5 minutes if you have a crazy market... but almost all prices in the last hour are manually adjusted for major markets.Comment -
I'll enumerate my points:
1) I can only assume that you hate money as you are refusing to take my money and you wrote a book. Two strong data points. I'm unsure why you do this line of work (giving away other people's lunch while starving), but I have my theories.
2) My account is still marked from the Pinnacle US days are an arbitrageur. I like it like that. Why would I ever want to be "respected"? It means less action at worse prices. Perhaps you think this is a badge of honor, but I personally think it sucks a lot of horse cock.
3) We all (meaning actual professionals) know that Pinnacle profiles. Same reason why some people have 7/5ths limits and others don't. (Though I don't really know why this works like this.)
4) You then claim the line will move, but will move less. That would be an auto move, no? Making your prior posts (13 and 15) completely full of shit.
Its amazing how you cower and backtrack when someone wants to hand a big pile of money to you for simply backing up your statements. (For a company you "worked" for.)Comment -
Thremp wrote:
1) I can only assume that you hate money as you are refusing to take my money and you wrote a book. Two strong data points. I'm unsure why you do this line of work (giving away other people's lunch while starving), but I have my theories.
2 concerns. Have things changed since I worked there? A possibility. Second, the logistics of taking your money. If I am correct, you'll try to verify your claims, and refuse to close the deal if you can't verify. You get a freeroll if I blindly accept.
2) My account is still marked from the Pinnacle US days are an arbitrageur. I like it like that. Why would I ever want to be "respected"? It means less action at worse prices. Perhaps you think this is a badge of honor, but I personally think it sucks a lot of horse cock.
If you are profiled as an ultra-chump, less than limit bets might never move the price, regardless of when you bet. I don't know any big winners profiled this way, but it is possible. It is a losing scenario for me.
3) We all (meaning actual professionals) know that Pinnacle profiles. Same reason why some people have 7/5ths limits and others don't. (Though I don't really know why this works like this.)
The initial limits have nothing to do with how you are profiled. If you don't know how this works, ... Talk to me at the next SBR bash.
4) You then claim the line will move, but will move less. That would be an auto move, no? Making your prior posts (13 and 15) completely full of shit.
No, in the last hour, it is not usually an auto-move. A human looks at the bet. A human looks at the position. A human looks at the market price. A human makes a decision to move the price. This takes about 2-4 seconds. There are geniuses much, much smarter than me watching the markets in that time period. Automove takes about 1/4 second. If you're curious whether automove is on, open up two browsers. Confirm a bet on one, and immediately refresh (about 1 second later) on the other. If it has the same price, you are seeing a manual adjustment.
Its amazing how you cower and backtrack when someone wants to hand a big pile of money to you for simply backing up your statements. (For a company you "worked" for.)
I never paid as much attention to the smaller markets. Would you make this offer on NFL? Do you contend that NFL is on automove for the full hour before the game starts?Comment -
1) Anyone who's placed an arb on a major (or minor) sport with Pinnacle has "verified" this. Congrats. Some people actually bet here.
2) I wasn't aware "arbitrageur" and "ultra-chump" had the same meaning. Regardless, your response is devoid of actual content. Being profiled as a super square is the best possible scenario for any professional. If this is a "losing scenario", you're (anyone who believes this) a ******* idiot.
3) I'd never actually speak with someone like you. I know virtually everyone from SBR I want to know. Considering the dubious nature of Ganchrow's disappearance, I'm not terribly keen on getting more involved. (Aside from the shilling/robbing of GRUMPERZ/etc)
4) Lets rephrase your statement: "The largest single market on Pinnacle is on manual move for an hour game start. The hundreds of smaller markets are not." Is that what you're claiming now? I just wanna be certain before you make another outlandish claim you backtrack on.
Could you offer me a count of how many markets are bigger than NCAAB? MLB/NBA/CFB/NFL/Some soccer. Whoops. Answered my own question.Comment -
Ok Thremp. I want your position clear. According to your 1) in the previous post, lots of players have "verified" this. What did they verify? Are you claiming that a limit NFL bet 30 minutes before post will move the line as much as 10 minutes after the lines first go up?Comment -
so there is no pinny stopper or lean?Comment -
Pre UIGEA I almost never moved a line at Pinny. Now I move them with very small bets. Liquidity issue as i doubt they view my action as anything sharp or square. Now for smaller places like Skybook--I swear i was an unpaid employee of theirs for like 2 years. I am still waiting for my severance package.Comment -
And J7 asks obfuscating questions to skirt his original (incorrect) point.
Again, you show no interest other than to mislead everyone with pseudo-expertise (I WORKED THERE. I MUST BE CORRECT!!!!), yet when push comes to shove you have no money, no confidence, and your original comments suddenly become something markedly different (Pinny moves on auto-pilot less).
My work here is done.Comment -
Thremp stopperComment -
Well that was .....eye opening.
So does Pinny move manually or automatically in the last hour...? What did we decide?
Can't someone just call Pinny and ask?
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I want one of Chappelle's travel stenographers to take the notes of that phone call. Hilarity would surely ensue.Comment -
All of the above.Comment -
^^ explain?Comment -
Bizarre thread...i don't know what Thremp wants from Justin, hell i don't understand half of the stuff you write. But what is so complicated about all this? Sometimes it is automated, and when they have an opinion it might be not.
Sometimes i bet (usually an arb at Pinny) and the automated line change occures. Then it switches back pretty fast to the price before my bet, which tells me something like this happens:
a human looks at the bet, checks the bettor, iam marked as arber, he moves the line back to get more arb money in.
So of course the "stopper" works...if it is a stopper...and not their opinion on the game, they might just want to get lots of action on the team with + odds, for example if they know or think the line will move.Comment -
It's not that complicated. Pinny (or any book) has two major objectives when moving lines:
1) Sharpen the line so that both sides will offer a -EV proposition
2) Attempt to balance action to manage risk in accordance with the book's policy
When a line first opens, limits are low and the objective is mainly (1). It's pretty simple to create a set of rules to automove the line based upon incoming wagers. Closer to game time, the priority shifts from mostly (1) to a mix between (1) and (2). Thus the need for discretion on the part of the line manager on duty.Comment
