Beating Pinny closer is not as profitable as it used to be.

**subs** · 01-02-11, 01:13 AM

post em baby

**Winner_13** · 01-02-11, 01:25 AM

its guna take like 20 mins 4 me to type the plays
I don't want to put how much i bet so cant simply copy and paste.

Also I'm worried that some people here are going to get angry that I am revealing too much and I can understand y they would say that.
However they will probably not be supportive at all, probably even counter productive!

**subs** · 01-02-11, 01:40 AM

fair enough

..... can't blame a brother for trying to get a sneak peak - lolz

**TomG** · 01-02-11, 02:18 AM

Ignoring your results over your last 50 plays, why do you think beating Pinny closer might not be as profitable as it used to be?

**Winner_13** · 01-02-11, 06:45 AM

its about 4 months worth of plays....im not sharp enough to answer that question however
I assume the markets are just tougher to beat less recreational $ ...books getting smarter...squares getting sharper...

**subs** · 01-02-11, 07:15 AM

do you mind me asking, for 4 months you been beating pinny closers fairly consistently and losing money?

damn

are you beating them by a small margin? i mean if you were fading your plays would you still lose money? because it seems like you have a subset that you can use to predict... scalps.

just curious.

**MadTiger** · 01-02-11, 07:45 AM

Edit out the $ amounts.

Post them. Inquiring minds want to know.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 01-02-11, 10:09 AM

I agree. I have a slow moving book for soccer and played them against Pinny's line all year with no luck.

(Only playing leagues with higher limits)

**durito** · 01-02-11, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by Winner_13

its about 4 months worth of plays....im not sharp enough to answer that question however
I assume the markets are just tougher to beat less recreational $ ...books getting smarter...squares getting sharper...

If the markets are getting sharper, beating the closing line should be more profitable than previously.

**durito** · 01-02-11, 11:28 AM

50 bets is nothing, that should be one day not 4 months.

**cadillac pete** · 01-02-11, 12:03 PM

Very interested to see the data you have.

**TomG** · 01-02-11, 12:07 PM

The data should be the least interesting part of the discussion (which is saying something). It demonstrates nothing.

**Thremp** · 01-02-11, 12:49 PM

So this is what you folks have been doing instead of working?

**magynuck** · 01-02-11, 12:51 PM

disagree
50 plays on w/e = slow morning
worst record keeper in the world is me but nov/dec = +100k....above average

**Winner_13** · 01-02-11, 01:09 PM

i have not been beating the no vig - line...the regular line
ex TCU yesterday i got -3 at -110 odds it closes at -3.5 at pinny(-3 -119) on about a 12 cent line the other side was +107 or +108 at +3 i think

**necro** · 01-02-11, 01:11 PM

what means 'beating pinny closer'' ?

**durito** · 01-02-11, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by Winner_13

i have not been beating the no vig - line...the regular line
ex TCU yesterday i got -3 at -110 odds it closes at -3.5 at pinny(-3 -119) on about a 12 cent line the other side was +107 or +108 at +3 i think

that's a <1% edge (at best). for you to be losing or break even after 50 of those is hardly unusual

**Monte** · 01-02-11, 03:56 PM

How can you define "Pinny closer" exactly anyway?
On bigger games, the line usually moves a lot in the last 30 minutes.
So which line are you gonna take as the closer? If they move towards and arb with other sharp books like Greek in the last minutes, does that tell anything about what the no-vig line was? I do not think so, for me beating the closer is on a significant move that happens much earlier.

**Winner_13** · 01-02-11, 04:08 PM

so durito are you suggesting i have to beat the no vig-closing line?

**Winner_13** · 01-02-11, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by Monte

How can you define "Pinny closer" exactly anyway?
On bigger games, the line usually moves a lot in the last 30 minutes.
So which line are you gonna take as the closer? If they move towards and arb with other sharp books like Greek in the last minutes, does that tell anything about what the no-vig line was? I do not think so, for me beating the closer is on a significant move that happens much earlier.

I mean the last second b4 tip close.
Ex tennesse closes +10-138 at pinny other side +124

I have tennesse +10 -120!!!

I don't want to break down there no vig line and then calculate my edge, but on a play like this I believe it is obvious that I have the best of it.
After 4 months of doing this the results aren't quite as good as I hoped a little negative.

**durito** · 01-02-11, 04:38 PM

Give it 5,000 plays. You should be there in 30 years or so.

**Winner_13** · 01-02-11, 04:50 PM

its been a lot more than 50 plays probably around 600 since start of nfl

**durito** · 01-02-11, 07:35 PM

600 still isn't anything. I basically broke even over my first 3,000 bets this year. The next 4,000 ran at over 6%.

**Thremp** · 01-02-11, 09:59 PM

To one up durito I was down in 09 after around 6000 plays. Finished the year out with a robust <1% ROI. And look at me now. I'm a professional poster lying on the internet about my results.

**Monte** · 01-02-11, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by Winner_13

I mean the last second b4 tip close.
Ex tennesse closes +10-138 at pinny other side +124

Well you are wrong, the last line is never the sharpest. Iam no prophet but Pinny will prolly just move the line there to balance things out and take whatever bets come in, also often the blue circles are removed close to game time...what does that tell you?

**prop** · 01-03-11, 05:42 AM

Clearly you're just running bad, next life you'll run fine. Don't pass up on any chances at clearly +EV early exist.

To clarify what I mean:

Suicide sucks, but its okay when jumping on a grenade to save others lives.

next life u run good.

**Sawyer** · 01-03-11, 10:04 AM

Pinnacle's odds (reduced juice) is good but they change odds so fast. Many times, I see much better odds at Exchange or other asian books.

**Duff85** · 01-03-11, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by Winner_13

I can go through the trouble of posting my last like 50 plays

Sick sample bro. Stop trying to beat the Pinny closer and pick them on gut feel please.

**magynuck** · 01-03-11, 01:52 PM

Yes going with your gut is an excellent way to ensure long term profitability. The difficulty
comes in determining which region of the gut represents a play with value and which region
is merely indigestion.

**jgilmartin** · 01-03-11, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by magynuck

Yes going with your gut is an excellent way to ensure long term profitability. The difficulty
comes in determining which region of the gut represents a play with value and which region
is merely indigestion.

**wrongturn** · 01-03-11, 03:45 PM

Not as profitable as before but still profitable, right? For 50 bets, that is not too bad.

**FourLengthsClear** · 01-03-11, 04:02 PM

I am not really interested in the plays themselves but the statement in the thread title is quite a bold one.

In simple terms:

1) What is your average edge per bet over the 600?
2) What is your profit/loss to date?

**impper** · 01-03-11, 04:54 PM

I feel like Pinnacle's misled me sometimes but then again I'm still profitable on the year. I don't really get this thread. Why would it be less profitable? Noone's given a solid reason yet. The only one that would make sense is Pinnacle is losing their edge. Is anyone going to argue that?

**Winner_13** · 01-03-11, 05:56 PM

i have a much bigger sample size than 50 plays.
I said I will post those AS AN EXAMPLE TO SHOW U THAT I AM BEATING THE LINE or to ask If I am doing it right!! I didn't say anything about how I have just done it for 50 plays.
Its been 4 months.