Fading the public - March madness

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-22-08, 01:51 AM

1st day results
3-4
friday results
W ky Win
MDBC LOSS
S Bama LOSS
American WIN
Boise LOSS
San Diego WIN
Austin Peay Loss
3-4 again today

Given that traditionally first round of the tourney is a time to load up on faves, not a bad start. Will be better suited after the weekend to put an analysis on this.

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-23-08, 01:43 AM

First round
6-8
Second round day 1
Mich St W(outright)
Marq W
Texas A&M W

3-0
Good day for this trend.
9-8 overall(52%)

I see ALOT more of the same tomorrow, heres whats on the watch list
SD +5.5
Davidson +4.5(definitely a play. PUblic % too high with more bets on this than any other game).
Arkansas (definitely a play.)
Miami
Oklahoma(definitely a play).

I am going out on a limb here, but i see at least 3 wins here. This is a make/break day for the trend I feel.

**WestsidePete** · 03-23-08, 01:49 AM

BOT,

you mean with the spreads??

Ark +11
Davidson +4.5
Miami +6.5

I can see these covering ....

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-23-08, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by WestsidePete

BOT,

you mean with the spreads??

Ark +11
Davidson +4.5
Miami +6.5

I can see these covering ....

Yes with the points. Outright games i havent been able to put a number on(a lot more variables).
Not saying im playing all of them yet either, other than the couple i noted as being a definite play.
But i really see a 4-1 day at worst.

**SexyMit** · 03-23-08, 08:47 AM

I had some thing like this for college football. All the money going one way right before game time and the line moving in the opposite direction. It would only be a night where there was one game not multiple games. I don't have the exact percentage of win to loss but I know that I made some serious cash off of them. I will be watching these games if you could before game time please put up the ones that you think will work. I also noticed alot of money on PITT last night and the line was not moving. I had MS ML also and they won.

**Ganchrow** · 03-23-08, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans

Only went back four years. Thats about 500 games.

Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans

I could not get the public numbers of anything before 4 years, thus why its only at a 4 year sample.

I was wondering if you could possibly post your sample data here. I'd love to check it out.

**SexyMit** · 03-23-08, 09:45 AM

Ganchrow... where can you find 2nd half lines on NBA games from mths back to see how many have covered? I know you are a stat freak and very well with them could you please help?

**Ganchrow** · 03-23-08, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by SexyMit

Ganchrow... where can you find 2nd half lines on NBA games from mths back to see how many have covered? I know you are a stat freak and very well with them could you please help?

You can get this data as a subscriber to the Don Best "Real-Time Odds" package.

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-23-08, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by Ganchrow

I was wondering if you could possibly post your sample data here. I'd love to check it out.

Ganch, after the games tonight I will post what i have left of my sample.

As for the games before tip, heres the late games following the trend:

Ark +11
Miss st +9.5
Oklahoma +7.5

Earlier plays were:
davidson +5(covered)
Miami +6.5(covered)

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-23-08, 04:02 PM

2-0 so far today
11-8 in the tournament.
I said today would be a big day for this trend, and it looks like i was correct.

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-23-08, 11:28 PM

Ark +11 Loss
Miss st +9.5 WIN
Oklahoma +7.5 Loss
3-2 today

12-10 (54.5%)

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-27-08, 02:21 AM

12-10 (54.5%)

Possible plays and welcome back to the tourney folks

Tennessee +3
W KY +12
WSU is tentative upon line movement.
UT looks like strongest plat ATM.

**imgv94** · 03-27-08, 02:58 AM

Curious to know if your planning on betting Davidson? Nice avi

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-27-08, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

Curious to know if your planning on betting Davidson? Nice avi

IMGV,
Davidson fits this trend better than any other game.
But on the flipside, Wisc is 2-0 against this trend(beatingIllini and in beating Kansas St. Granted, they were within a few points of 4.5 which is the current davidson line, but clearly not as good as davidson...)
I liked wisky at first but if you look at the purdue games, in which they lost twice this year, purdue played much like davidson is playing now.

With davidson fitting this trend and the fact that they will use the same gameplan as purdue, I gotta go against the chalk.

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-27-08, 03:26 PM

Todays plays(may add if numbers change significantly)
Wsu +8.5
Tennessee +3

W. Ky is now a heavy public play, so we wont include them at the moment..

As for tomorrow, early watches are as follows:

Davidson(Definitely a play)
Stanford
Nova(slight chance)

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-29-08, 03:12 AM

fridays plays were
Davidson +5

13-12

**BrUno0** · 03-30-08, 05:56 AM

Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans

Regularguy,

The number moving is always due to money. Lines drop to attract attention to the favorite bettor. Lines raise to attract to the dog bettor. So if the lines move in favor of the side that is heavily favored it is due to money. Although they are 80% faves, it does not mean they are 80% of the money. You are not supposed to be able to have that knowledge of where the most money is, but if you see a 80% fave with the line DROPPING, you know the money is on the other side(known as the sharp side). Being as Joe public is a chronic loser, and joe sharp is not, thats the side you want to be on, for the most part.

The best way to follow this trend is wait until about 30 mins before tip, when the dog money should come in. If it still comes out at 65%+ and with little to no line movement, it is a trend play.

BOT, i'm curious as to where you find out the betting trends, what site is most accurate on this? I heard sportsbook is off, and wagerline isn't to be quite exact either. So yeah, if you could tell me the most accurate site to see where the publics at, that would be great.

**LT Profits** · 03-30-08, 06:36 AM

BrUnoO,

Sports Insights (sportsinsights.com)

Thye also have a lot of interesting articles on this subject.

**BrUno0** · 03-30-08, 06:56 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

BrUnoO,

Sports Insights (sportsinsights.com)

Thye also have a lot of interesting articles on this subject.

Thank you, check that out right now, i was told bet tracker was good as well, do you agree?

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-30-08, 03:14 PM

Sportsinsights is the best IMO.

Davidson+10 is a trendplay, only one of the elite eight

**BrUno0** · 03-30-08, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans

Sportsinsights is the best IMO.

Davidson+10 is a trendplay, only one of the elite eight

what were the % on that game? And all i saw in line change was .5 early in the morning, and it went back up to 9.5, bettracker showed only like 55% of pbublic on one side

**BigOrangeTitans** · 03-30-08, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by BrUno0

what were the % on that game? And all i saw in line change was .5 early in the morning, and it went back up to 9.5, bettracker showed only like 55% of pbublic on one side

Line closed at 57% fave, but at time of posted play it was 65%. Lotta late bets on davidson when the line went to 10.

**austintx05** · 03-31-08, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans

Sportsinsights is the best IMO.

Davidson+10 is a trendplay, only one of the elite eight

of course it is, they sell you on their service.

**austintx05** · 03-31-08, 12:33 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

Everyone in this thread is EXTREMELY public.. Myself included.

haha, ain't that the truth. Most of your faders think they are underground and what they know is top secret...

gotta love it man

**BigOrangeTitans** · 04-05-08, 12:43 PM

13-12 ytd
This is the best round for this trend over the last four years, going pretty large with KU +3.

24%public = kansas
76% - UNC

Anything under 30% is 5/6 over the last 6 tourney games where the dog was at such a public dislike.

**BrUno0** · 04-05-08, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans

13-12 ytd
This is the best round for this trend over the last four years, going pretty large with KU +3.

24%public = kansas
76% - UNC

Anything under 30% is 5/6 over the last 6 tourney games where the dog was at such a public dislike.

This doesn't exactly fit this type of trend play though, right? Or am i missing something

**BigOrangeTitans** · 04-05-08, 02:37 PM

It matches better than any in a while actually, as pub % continues to rise. You want to play the dog to public favorite over 65%(optimally, 75%). Also, you want this to be a national game aka televised(max public exposure), and what bigger exposure than the final four?

**BigOrangeTitans** · 04-05-08, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans

13-12 ytd
This is the best round for this trend over the last four years, going pretty large with KU +3.

24%public = kansas
76% - UNC

Anything under 30% is 5/6 over the last 6 tourney games where the dog was at such a public dislike.

14 - 12 YTD (53%)

So i proved that it does work, and if you tweak it and add more filters (public favored teams, ie N car, duke, kentucky, etc.) You can easily hit at a winning mark as you can see, and considering faves were roughly 70% this tourney, and we only bet on dogs in this thread, we picked almost EVERY dog winner.