Fading the public - March madness

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  • BigOrangeTitans
    SBR MVP
    • 11-23-07
    • 4504

    #36
    1st day results
    3-4
    friday results
    W ky Win
    MDBC LOSS
    S Bama LOSS
    American WIN
    Boise LOSS
    San Diego WIN
    Austin Peay Loss
    3-4 again today

    Given that traditionally first round of the tourney is a time to load up on faves, not a bad start. Will be better suited after the weekend to put an analysis on this.
    Comment
    • BigOrangeTitans
      SBR MVP
      • 11-23-07
      • 4504

      #37
      First round
      6-8
      Second round day 1
      Mich St W(outright)
      Marq W
      Texas A&M W

      3-0
      Good day for this trend.
      9-8 overall(52%)

      I see ALOT more of the same tomorrow, heres whats on the watch list
      SD +5.5
      Davidson +4.5(definitely a play. PUblic % too high with more bets on this than any other game).
      Arkansas (definitely a play.)
      Miami
      Oklahoma(definitely a play).

      I am going out on a limb here, but i see at least 3 wins here. This is a make/break day for the trend I feel.
      Comment
      • WestsidePete
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-19-07
        • 8049

        #38
        BOT,

        you mean with the spreads??

        Ark +11
        Davidson +4.5
        Miami +6.5

        I can see these covering ....
        Comment
        • BigOrangeTitans
          SBR MVP
          • 11-23-07
          • 4504

          #39
          Originally posted by WestsidePete
          BOT,

          you mean with the spreads??

          Ark +11
          Davidson +4.5
          Miami +6.5

          I can see these covering ....
          Yes with the points. Outright games i havent been able to put a number on(a lot more variables).
          Not saying im playing all of them yet either, other than the couple i noted as being a definite play.
          But i really see a 4-1 day at worst.
          Comment
          • SexyMit
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 10-12-06
            • 6139

            #40
            I had some thing like this for college football. All the money going one way right before game time and the line moving in the opposite direction. It would only be a night where there was one game not multiple games. I don't have the exact percentage of win to loss but I know that I made some serious cash off of them. I will be watching these games if you could before game time please put up the ones that you think will work. I also noticed alot of money on PITT last night and the line was not moving. I had MS ML also and they won.
            If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

            I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
            Comment
            • Ganchrow
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 08-28-05
              • 5011

              #41
              Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans
              Only went back four years. Thats about 500 games.
              Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans
              I could not get the public numbers of anything before 4 years, thus why its only at a 4 year sample.
              I was wondering if you could possibly post your sample data here. I'd love to check it out.
              Comment
              • SexyMit
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 10-12-06
                • 6139

                #42
                Ganchrow... where can you find 2nd half lines on NBA games from mths back to see how many have covered? I know you are a stat freak and very well with them could you please help?
                If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                Comment
                • Ganchrow
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-28-05
                  • 5011

                  #43
                  Originally posted by SexyMit
                  Ganchrow... where can you find 2nd half lines on NBA games from mths back to see how many have covered? I know you are a stat freak and very well with them could you please help?
                  You can get this data as a subscriber to the Don Best "Real-Time Odds" package.
                  Comment
                  • BigOrangeTitans
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-23-07
                    • 4504

                    #44
                    Originally posted by Ganchrow
                    I was wondering if you could possibly post your sample data here. I'd love to check it out.
                    Ganch, after the games tonight I will post what i have left of my sample.

                    As for the games before tip, heres the late games following the trend:

                    Ark +11
                    Miss st +9.5
                    Oklahoma +7.5

                    Earlier plays were:
                    davidson +5(covered)
                    Miami +6.5(covered)
                    Last edited by BigOrangeTitans; 03-23-08, 04:01 PM.
                    Comment
                    • BigOrangeTitans
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-23-07
                      • 4504

                      #45
                      2-0 so far today
                      11-8 in the tournament.
                      I said today would be a big day for this trend, and it looks like i was correct.
                      Comment
                      • BigOrangeTitans
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-23-07
                        • 4504

                        #46
                        Ark +11 Loss
                        Miss st +9.5 WIN
                        Oklahoma +7.5 Loss
                        3-2 today


                        12-10 (54.5%)
                        Comment
                        • BigOrangeTitans
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-23-07
                          • 4504

                          #47
                          12-10 (54.5%)

                          Possible plays and welcome back to the tourney folks

                          Tennessee +3
                          W KY +12
                          WSU is tentative upon line movement.
                          UT looks like strongest plat ATM.
                          Comment
                          • imgv94
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-16-05
                            • 17192

                            #48
                            Curious to know if your planning on betting Davidson? Nice avi
                            Comment
                            • BigOrangeTitans
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-23-07
                              • 4504

                              #49
                              Originally posted by imgv94
                              Curious to know if your planning on betting Davidson? Nice avi
                              IMGV,
                              Davidson fits this trend better than any other game.
                              But on the flipside, Wisc is 2-0 against this trend(beatingIllini and in beating Kansas St. Granted, they were within a few points of 4.5 which is the current davidson line, but clearly not as good as davidson...)
                              I liked wisky at first but if you look at the purdue games, in which they lost twice this year, purdue played much like davidson is playing now.

                              With davidson fitting this trend and the fact that they will use the same gameplan as purdue, I gotta go against the chalk.
                              Comment
                              • BigOrangeTitans
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-23-07
                                • 4504

                                #50
                                Todays plays(may add if numbers change significantly)
                                Wsu +8.5
                                Tennessee +3

                                W. Ky is now a heavy public play, so we wont include them at the moment..

                                As for tomorrow, early watches are as follows:

                                Davidson(Definitely a play)
                                Stanford
                                Nova(slight chance)
                                Comment
                                • BigOrangeTitans
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-23-07
                                  • 4504

                                  #51
                                  fridays plays were
                                  Davidson +5

                                  13-12
                                  Comment
                                  • BrUno0
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 03-30-08
                                    • 574

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans
                                    Regularguy,

                                    The number moving is always due to money. Lines drop to attract attention to the favorite bettor. Lines raise to attract to the dog bettor. So if the lines move in favor of the side that is heavily favored it is due to money. Although they are 80% faves, it does not mean they are 80% of the money. You are not supposed to be able to have that knowledge of where the most money is, but if you see a 80% fave with the line DROPPING, you know the money is on the other side(known as the sharp side). Being as Joe public is a chronic loser, and joe sharp is not, thats the side you want to be on, for the most part.

                                    The best way to follow this trend is wait until about 30 mins before tip, when the dog money should come in. If it still comes out at 65%+ and with little to no line movement, it is a trend play.
                                    BOT, i'm curious as to where you find out the betting trends, what site is most accurate on this? I heard sportsbook is off, and wagerline isn't to be quite exact either. So yeah, if you could tell me the most accurate site to see where the publics at, that would be great.
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #53
                                      BrUnoO,

                                      Sports Insights (sportsinsights.com)

                                      Thye also have a lot of interesting articles on this subject.
                                      Comment
                                      • BrUno0
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 03-30-08
                                        • 574

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                                        BrUnoO,

                                        Sports Insights (sportsinsights.com)

                                        Thye also have a lot of interesting articles on this subject.
                                        Thank you, check that out right now, i was told bet tracker was good as well, do you agree?
                                        Comment
                                        • BigOrangeTitans
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-23-07
                                          • 4504

                                          #55
                                          Sportsinsights is the best IMO.

                                          Davidson+10 is a trendplay, only one of the elite eight
                                          Comment
                                          • BrUno0
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 03-30-08
                                            • 574

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans
                                            Sportsinsights is the best IMO.

                                            Davidson+10 is a trendplay, only one of the elite eight
                                            what were the % on that game? And all i saw in line change was .5 early in the morning, and it went back up to 9.5, bettracker showed only like 55% of pbublic on one side
                                            Comment
                                            • BigOrangeTitans
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-23-07
                                              • 4504

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by BrUno0
                                              what were the % on that game? And all i saw in line change was .5 early in the morning, and it went back up to 9.5, bettracker showed only like 55% of pbublic on one side
                                              Line closed at 57% fave, but at time of posted play it was 65%. Lotta late bets on davidson when the line went to 10.
                                              Comment
                                              • austintx05
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-24-06
                                                • 3156

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans
                                                Sportsinsights is the best IMO.

                                                Davidson+10 is a trendplay, only one of the elite eight
                                                of course it is, they sell you on their service.
                                                Comment
                                                • austintx05
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-24-06
                                                  • 3156

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by imgv94
                                                  Everyone in this thread is EXTREMELY public.. Myself included.
                                                  haha, ain't that the truth. Most of your faders think they are underground and what they know is top secret...

                                                  gotta love it man
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BigOrangeTitans
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-23-07
                                                    • 4504

                                                    #60
                                                    13-12 ytd
                                                    This is the best round for this trend over the last four years, going pretty large with KU +3.

                                                    24%public = kansas
                                                    76% - UNC

                                                    Anything under 30% is 5/6 over the last 6 tourney games where the dog was at such a public dislike.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BrUno0
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 03-30-08
                                                      • 574

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans
                                                      13-12 ytd
                                                      This is the best round for this trend over the last four years, going pretty large with KU +3.

                                                      24%public = kansas
                                                      76% - UNC

                                                      Anything under 30% is 5/6 over the last 6 tourney games where the dog was at such a public dislike.
                                                      This doesn't exactly fit this type of trend play though, right? Or am i missing something
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BigOrangeTitans
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-23-07
                                                        • 4504

                                                        #62
                                                        It matches better than any in a while actually, as pub % continues to rise. You want to play the dog to public favorite over 65%(optimally, 75%). Also, you want this to be a national game aka televised(max public exposure), and what bigger exposure than the final four?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BigOrangeTitans
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-23-07
                                                          • 4504

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans
                                                          13-12 ytd
                                                          This is the best round for this trend over the last four years, going pretty large with KU +3.

                                                          24%public = kansas
                                                          76% - UNC

                                                          Anything under 30% is 5/6 over the last 6 tourney games where the dog was at such a public dislike.
                                                          14 - 12 YTD (53%)

                                                          So i proved that it does work, and if you tweak it and add more filters (public favored teams, ie N car, duke, kentucky, etc.) You can easily hit at a winning mark as you can see, and considering faves were roughly 70% this tourney, and we only bet on dogs in this thread, we picked almost EVERY dog winner.
                                                          Comment
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