Beating Pinny's Line Guarantee Profit

[jolmscheid]

Hey guys...I have heard a lot about the Pinny Lean and closing lines...many say that if the closing line is beat, then you will profit long term. And also, if you can get a better line than Pinny, then you will profit. Is this true?

So say someone can get a line at say Bodog for 5-10 cents better than Pinny...is this +EV?

Or if someone can get .5 point or better at another book for the same odds....is this +EV?

[jolmscheid]

Open for talk here guys....just kind of confused as to how and if this works...thanks!

[Flight]

Beating the Pinnacle closer is good, but the market average is better. Add Matchbook and Bookmaker closing lines and average the 3 together for the closing line.

Yes, betting the soft side of Bodog is a good idea. You can often setup good middles in this manner, or you can just play the off market side if you don't have money at Pinn.

At least that's what I hear

[Flight]

Be careful about confusing the term +EV with guaranteed profit though.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks Flight...so basically, go off Pinny, Matchbook, and Bookmaker and look for "soft" lines....so even if I can get a game for 5 cents better or a half point better at say Bodog or somewhere else, is it smart to bet that??

[Flight]

5 cents better? Not worth it. Learn how to calculate EV and it will help you tremendously.

In NCAAFB, if you can get +5.5 -110 and the market is at +5 -110, it is not +EV
In NFL, if you can get +3.5 -110 and the market is at +3 -110, it is +EV

You need to learn how much those half points are worth in terms of percent, and the same thing for cents. Keep in mind that when you play -110 style 20 cent lines that you still need to overcome 4.5 percent -EV vigorish just to break even, so you should always shoot for greater than 5% difference to the market if you're just hunting for soft lines.

And this is all long term expectation, don't just go all in on +3.5 and call it a lock (I've seen people do this).

[jolmscheid]

Yea I get that thanks Flight...so how do I calc the no-vig line??

[Flight]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/568861-calculating-no-vig-line.html

[jolmscheid]

Thanks flight...so do you cap this way? Do you just look for no vig lines and beat em? Thanks bro