Acceptable Strike Rates/Sample Sizes

[The Real Betman]

Hi All

I'm new here so if I have posted this in the wrong place then I apologize.

I've just taken my first, very tentative steps into looking for ATS angles. What I was wondering is what would you consider to be an acceptable/good/great strike rate? (for ATS bets)

I put the average implied percentage of ATS odds at just under 51.5%. I'd have considered 60% (ROI/Yield: ~17%) to be a really great strike, but not sure how high I need my strike rate to be considered acceptable. Looking at the ROIs, 57% strike rate translates into a ~11% ROI, whilst 54% equates to a ~5% ROI. The latter (54%) is what I was wanting to aim for but was wondering if this was too low or not?

On a similar note, how large a sample size do you think I need for these strike rates to bare any significance?

Thanks in advance.

[Toples]

54% is achievable with daily bets (up to 1000 per year), 60% not if are not extremely picky, probably under 50 per year...

i would rather go with 55% and more bets, it will get you more profit

[GoIrish682]

i think another variable is the amount of wager in relation to the 'strenth' the pick, right?

[u21c3f6]

Hi All

I'm new here so if I have posted this in the wrong place then I apologize.

I've just taken my first, very tentative steps into looking for ATS angles. What I was wondering is what would you consider to be an acceptable/good/great strike rate? (for ATS bets)

I put the average implied percentage of ATS odds at just under 51.5%. I'd have considered 60% (ROI/Yield: ~17%) to be a really great strike, but not sure how high I need my strike rate to be considered acceptable. Looking at the ROIs, 57% strike rate translates into a ~11% ROI, whilst 54% equates to a ~5% ROI. The latter (54%) is what I was wanting to aim for but was wondering if this was too low or not?

On a similar note, how large a sample size do you think I need for these strike rates to bare any significance?

Thanks in advance.

Here is how I look at this.

First I don't start by saying I want to "shoot" for any particular win rate ATS. I collect various data, compare that data to each other in various combinations and "see" if there are any combinations that creates a bell curve of subsets. I rarely go back more than one season. If I go back more than one season it is because there were not enough events to get a valid sample size. Once I find a combination that gives me what I am looking for, I then test it forward (and always with real money although relatively small money in the testing phase. Paper trading is not as valid). The win rate is determined by one of the subsets that the market will give up, not by what I want.

Going forward, it will either be profitable or it won't. As I go forward I keep checking for validity (profitable or not) using the following method. For ATS wagers, I assume that the random win rate is 50%. I then calculate the SD for the number of wagers based on a 50% win rate (sq rt of (# wagers*.5*.5)). I then compare the # of winners to how many SDs it is away from 50%.

The sample size for validity will be dictated by the win %. I don't call anything valid until I am at least 2 SDs away from 50%. If it is valid, it shouldn't be long before the results fall outside 2.5 SDs and with more events, a valid "method" will usually fall outside 3 SDs.

Hope that made sense.

Joe.