How Ironic

**sideloaded** · 10-30-10, 04:28 AM

What you posted is not ironic. You sure you know what that word means?

**Indecent** · 10-30-10, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by Firefox14

We live in a society where people pay to learn information. People attend college to attain a degree, master their field of expertise, and then use that experience in the work-force. However, with sports betting, many on this site simply say, "You're on your own, Figure it Out, Develop your own thinking". It's a shame there isn't a step by step process to becoming a good capper, much like in college when you're taking progressive classes to more readily acquire knowledge in a sequential manner. No wonder why no one chooses to do this for a living! And with crazy math calculations that often bewilders the average individual, the churn rate seems astronomical. So this is for some of the more successful bettors out there. I ask, "If I was a child, a protege, and you had to give me a crash course in handicapping, and it was your job to teach me all the skills to be successful, could you do that? Is their a system, a teaching methodology that will create undoubted success?

It was my experience that no one holds your hand and helps you at every step in college either. Sometimes I got a direct answer, but most of the time I was given a little bit of information to get me past the point where I was stuck. I had the "ah-ha" moment myself and understood the material/process better as a result.

Sports betting is like anything else, you get out of it what you put in. If you rely on others to further your own education you'll end up exactly where you are now. Don't get me wrong, there are countless people here who will point you in the right direction if you are stuck and need general advice, but no one will tell you how to make money for no reason. Why would they?

**xyz** · 10-30-10, 12:01 PM

There is no alpha in teaching anyone to make money in sports betting, unless they are paying a very large fee. That one dollar you make could very well be the one dollar I fail to make because I was too late. I don't want more people getting in front of me to that dollar.

**Firefox14** · 10-30-10, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

What you posted is not ironic. You sure you know what that word means?

Yes, I thought about that. I think I was thinking more of hypocritical.

**Firefox14** · 10-30-10, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by Indecent

It was my experience that no one holds your hand and helps you at every step in college either. Sometimes I got a direct answer, but most of the time I was given a little bit of information to get me past the point where I was stuck. I had the "ah-ha" moment myself and understood the material/process better as a result.

Sports betting is like anything else, you get out of it what you put in. If you rely on others to further your own education you'll end up exactly where you are now. Don't get me wrong, there are countless people here who will point you in the right direction if you are stuck and need general advice, but no one will tell you how to make money for no reason. Why would they?

I'm not asking anyone to "hold my hand", but I am being realistic. The math guys advocate analyzing numbers, and finding an edge through arbing, vig, etc., but in all reality, most people don't have the mathematical skills to understand the complexities of sports betting. And if you're like me, you need some sort of tutor on hand that can answer multiple questions at once in relation to a problem, in order for you to comprehend the solution. I can't remember how many times in school (especially math) where a professor would introduce a problem, show the solution, and the vast majority of the class had a puzzled look on their face as he re-introduced and re-introduced it again and again, with the same redundant response. Let's not kid ourselves; this is the 21st century. People want to figure out the best and most efficient way of doing things; and what I am simply contending, is that with no guidance or direction, browsing around websites and/or articles that one is unsure is reputable or not, equals inefficiency. What people need is a direction, and when that direction is taken, another direction must be given to speed up the process to becoming successful, whether the direction giver was given the direction or not. There have only been a handful of people on this site that have given me that direction, and while I step down from my soap box, I am thankful for those people, including but not limited to: Justin7, Data, and others in which I will have to recheck my threads to list.

**sharpcat** · 10-30-10, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Firefox14

I'm not asking anyone to "hold my hand", but I am being realistic. The math guys advocate analyzing numbers, and finding an edge through arbing, vig, etc., but in all reality, most people don't have the mathematical skills to understand the complexities of sports betting. And if you're like me, you need some sort of tutor on hand that can answer multiple questions at once in relation to a problem, in order for you to comprehend the solution. I can't remember how many times in school (especially math) where a professor would introduce a problem, show the solution, and the vast majority of the class had a puzzled look on their face as he re-introduced and re-introduced it again and again, with the same redundant response. Let's not kid ourselves; this is the 21st century. People want to figure out the best and most efficient way of doing things; and what I am simply contending, is that with no guidance or direction, browsing around websites and/or articles that one is unsure is reputable or not, equals inefficiency. What people need is a direction, and when that direction is taken, another direction must be given to speed up the process to becoming successful, whether the direction giver was given the direction or not. There have only been a handful of people on this site that have given me that direction, and while I step down from my soap box, I am thankful for those people, including but not limited to: Justin7, Data, and others in which I will have to recheck my threads to list.

I think the misunderstanding here is that you think people want everybody to learn to be a successful handicapper and this is not the case.

Successful handicappers realize that the higher amount of successful handicappers in the game the less opportunities one will have to find profit. This is not the same as the computer technology field where there are millions of positions to be filled this is a cut throat industry. If someone was to show you how they profit from gambling they would eventually wake one morning to find that the person they taught is now beating them to the lines, moving the line and taking away the value before they could bet it.

Basically I would not expect anybody who does not know anything about you to take you under their wing, especially on a public chat forum.

If you have questions about a math equation or about the significance of a particular set of data or anything along those lines many here a more than willing to give you advice but nobody is going to give you a goose that lays golden eggs.

**Pancho sanza** · 10-30-10, 01:17 PM

Why should sportsbetting be different from any other venture?

Those who invest the time/$$ should be rewarded.

You expect regular businesses with valuable info to just give it away to the competition?

**Firefox14** · 10-30-10, 02:11 PM

I now better understand the concept, but if this is the case, why help anyone at all in this dog-eat-dog world?

**pedro803** · 10-30-10, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by Firefox14

I now better understand the concept, but if this is the case, why help anyone at all in this dog-eat-dog world?

my guess is that it is a mutually benefecial situation here where most of the participants are gaining something from their interaction -- there is a lot of 'food for thought' -- if you will -- it keeps everybody's creative juices flowing

and also as another poster alluded to above, folks will more readily give technical assistance, but you can't expect people to give their secret recipes away (apparently those secret recipes also change and evolve over time so its not like someone could give you something that would be guaranteed to work year after year anyway).

My advice is to be patient and keep checking in, there is a lot of help here really, but you have to work up your own winning formula -- and if you do you will better understand how to adapt it going forward.

Again, be patient anything worth having is worth working for, and if you stick around long enough and contribute as best you can, and build some relationships -- you just might find yourself a

**pedro803** · 10-30-10, 05:13 PM

Also, you might consider looking in other subject areas besides sports gambling for the kind of help that I think you are talking about, it is a question of using statistics to predict future outcomes, there are lots of places where they do this besides sports gambling (I don't have something or someplace in mind that I think you can go, this is just a general suggestion) I am just saying there a lot of other people besides sports bettors that are trying to model real life events with statistics -- and these alternate approaches could potentially be fruitful for the very fact that they are from outside the beaten path and whatever edge they provide is a different particular edge than the one that other sharps are winning with -- and therefore your success would be more independent of what other winners are enjoying -- and this would be a good thing!

**Peregrine Stoop** · 10-31-10, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by Firefox14

We live in a society where people pay to learn information. People attend college to attain a degree, master their field of expertise, and then use that experience in the work-force. However, with sports betting, many on this site simply say, "You're on your own, Figure it Out, Develop your own thinking". It's a shame there isn't a step by step process to becoming a good capper, much like in college when you're taking progressive classes to more readily acquire knowledge in a sequential manner. No wonder why no one chooses to do this for a living! And with crazy math calculations that often bewilders the average individual, the churn rate seems astronomical. So this is for some of the more successful bettors out there. I ask, "If I was a child, a protege, and you had to give me a crash course in handicapping, and it was your job to teach me all the skills to be successful, could you do that? Is their a system, a teaching methodology that will create undoubted success?

me thinks you need to learn how to learn
the lecture method is meh
step-by-step printouts are bah

learn to think first

**CrimsonQueen** · 10-31-10, 10:33 PM

Firefox- I like your idea, of having classes to become a better capper. While I think that would be fun and informative, every time a class graduated from said "class," the ideas taught in that class would then become worthless because everyone knows the same 'secrets.' Eventually those ideas would be overused.

I do think, however, that a "basics in sports betting" class would be a great idea. Problem is, no one wants to become a better capper, everyone just wants that one (non-existent) secret to win 100% of their bets. No one wants to pay $500 for a class, and then pour in hours and hours of work to learn how to consistently win at a 53% rate year after year.

**theredd** · 10-31-10, 10:36 PM

I think I understand what you are saying, Firefox. What you are describing is a mentor, someone to not necessarily give you the answers , but to give you a framework of what you need to learn. In other words, someone who isnt going to tell you what choices to make, but rather will teach you how to make your own choices.

That would require someone with not only a lot of technical knowledge, but with the patience and time to guide you. Im guessing that anyone with the knowledge to do that job is going to be too busy making money to advise lesser mortals

**MonkeyF0cker** · 10-31-10, 11:18 PM

If you can't put in the time and dedication or don't have the capability of comprehending fairly elementary statistical analysis yourself, you're not going to make it handicapping anyway.

**PRC** · 10-31-10, 11:18 PM

It's not us against the books. It's us against each other.

**pedro803** · 11-01-10, 04:30 PM

Good purnt PRC -- to the extent that books even out action on both sides of the line it is us against each other!

**Johnny 55** · 11-01-10, 05:09 PM

What Julian said. Also, you dont need to know anything about handicapping games to make money betting sports. You also dont need more than sixth grade math skills to make money betting sports. There is a lot of low hanging fruit out there if you can find the right trees.

**Pokerjoe** · 11-04-10, 11:35 PM

Nobody can give everybody an edge. If you give an edge to everybody, it disappears because the line adjusts to it. Hence, no giving of edges to everybody. It isn't even possible. You understand? It isn't even POSSIBLE to give edges out to the capping world.

**Pokerjoe** · 11-04-10, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by Firefox14

We live in a society where people pay to learn information. People attend college to attain a degree, master their field of expertise, and then use that experience in the work-force. However, with sports betting, many on this site simply say, "You're on your own, Figure it Out, Develop your own thinking". It's a shame there isn't a step by step process to becoming a good capper, much like in college when you're taking progressive classes to more readily acquire knowledge in a sequential manner. No wonder why no one chooses to do this for a living! And with crazy math calculations that often bewilders the average individual, the churn rate seems astronomical. So this is for some of the more successful bettors out there. I ask, "If I was a child, a protege, and you had to give me a crash course in handicapping, and it was your job to teach me all the skills to be successful, could you do that? Is their a system, a teaching methodology that will create undoubted success?

It isn't "a shame there isn't a step by step process to becoming a good capper." It's an impossibility for there to be a public process like that.

"No wonder why no one chooses to do this for a living!" What does that even mean? Obviously some do choose to do it for a living. Do you mean that no one can just sign up for courses and do it? See above.

"And with crazy math calculations that often bewilders the average individual, the churn rate seems astronomical." If a calculation is crazy, it isn't math. If it bewilders the average individual, it joins a long list of good things. And as for the churn rate of prospective professional handicappers being high: yes. Why would you expect otherwise? Do you know of places where easy money is just laying around? Why would you expect it to be like that here?

You came on to this forum asking questions without even putting thought into them. And, not surprisingly, your questions haven't been interesting. That you think you thought tells us all you've not before been held to a high standard of thinking. But this market quickly punishes those who indulge themselves in low intellectual standards. That's a good thing.

When you won't even put work into your questions, no one much wants to put work into their answers.

**uva3021** · 11-04-10, 11:52 PM

you pay to go to college and teachers are paid to teach you

nothing of the sort exist in this capacity

**jgilmartin** · 11-04-10, 11:56 PM

Top marks, Joe.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 11-05-10, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by uva3021

you pay to go to college and teachers are paid to teach you nothing of the sort exist in this capacity

disagree
there is plenty of stuff to learn from
if you aren't capable of putting it together, you don't deserve it

**wrongturn** · 11-05-10, 08:33 AM

If there is a public course that teaches everybody to be a winner, then where are you going to find the losers that take your bets? This will be the IRONIC.

**Firefox14** · 11-07-10, 04:30 AM

Originally posted by Pokerjoe

It isn't "a shame there isn't a step by step process to becoming a good capper." It's an impossibility for there to be a public process like that.

"No wonder why no one chooses to do this for a living!" What does that even mean? Obviously some do choose to do it for a living. Do you mean that no one can just sign up for courses and do it? See above.

"And with crazy math calculations that often bewilders the average individual, the churn rate seems astronomical." If a calculation is crazy, it isn't math. If it bewilders the average individual, it joins a long list of good things. And as for the churn rate of prospective professional handicappers being high: yes. Why would you expect otherwise? Do you know of places where easy money is just laying around? Why would you expect it to be like that here?

You came on to this forum asking questions without even putting thought into them. And, not surprisingly, your questions haven't been interesting. That you think you thought tells us all you've not before been held to a high standard of thinking. But this market quickly punishes those who indulge themselves in low intellectual standards. That's a good thing.

When you won't even put work into your questions, no one much wants to put work into their answers.

PokerJoe,

Your response makes a lot of sense and is very helpful. Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. The only part I disagree with is the subtle insults, i.e. the quality of my questions and my thinking level, as if you are familiar with my background, and actually have any idea as to what standard level of thinking I've been held accountable to; a false assumption. Again, I appreciate the response, but there's a better way to prove a point, without feeling the need to ridicule others, no matter what your beliefs.

**RickySteve** · 11-07-10, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by Firefox14

Yes, I thought about that. I think I was thinking more of hypocritical.

It's not hypocritical either. Any other words you don't know the meaning of you'd like to try?

**hotspotwager** · 11-07-10, 05:08 PM

i find this one of the best threads i have read...it truly exposes/bares the essence of what i'm sure many here think on some level.
There are so many questions and points brought up here, this thread could be a site of it's own.
one bit of advice that i can articulate is to try and be as dispassionate as possible. Look at comments shared as not personal, but merely more data with which to form a larger picture.
good luck, whatever that means!

**Firefox14** · 11-07-10, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by RickySteve

It's not hypocritical either. Any other words you don't know the meaning of you'd like to try?

Please explain, and I'll give you points for proving me wrong.

**Firefox14** · 11-07-10, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by hotspotwager

i find this one of the best threads i have read...it truly exposes/bares the essence of what i'm sure many here think on some level.
There are so many questions and points brought up here, this thread could be a site of it's own.
one bit of advice that i can articulate is to try and be as dispassionate as possible. Look at comments shared as not personal, but merely more data with which to form a larger picture.
good luck, whatever that means!

Thank you Hotspot; My point exactly. I'm beginning to think that even if I spent the time and effort figuring out a mathematical edge, I wouldn't be nearly half as skilled as some of the bettors on here, with some extremely high level thinking, while I consider myself slightly above average.

**Michaelmakesit** · 11-07-10, 09:16 PM

people dont bet for a living because its gambling and your letting people in jerseys with a ball determine if you make $ or lose $

stocks however your $ is determined second by second basis by electronic board and the market

people dont like balls....they like women....get that straight...cant make a living betting sports when theres balls

**Firefox14** · 11-08-10, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by Michaelmakesit

people dont bet for a living because its gambling and your letting people in jerseys with a ball determine if you make $ or lose $

stocks however your $ is determined second by second basis by electronic board and the market

people dont like balls....they like women....get that straight...cant make a living betting sports when theres balls

Funny

**JustinBieber** · 11-08-10, 10:30 AM

lol what a terrible post.

**wrongturn** · 11-08-10, 03:22 PM

In an extremely inappropriate comparison, winning sports betting is like successfully robbing banks without getting caught (see Justin7's signature). So you expect the expert robbers to publicly tell you the trade?

**Dark Horse** · 11-08-10, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by Firefox14

We live in a society where people pay to learn information. People attend college to attain a degree, master their field of expertise, and then use that experience in the work-force. However, with sports betting, many on this site simply say, "You're on your own, Figure it Out, Develop your own thinking".

How is that ironic? People take years to pay off college debts. A sports bettor who publicly shares his edge weakens that edge. He would pay for his generosity.

Originally posted by Firefox14

It's a shame there isn't a step by step process to becoming a good capper, much like in college when you're taking progressive classes to more readily acquire knowledge in a sequential manner. No wonder why no one chooses to do this for a living!

You want a smooth asphalt pavement. A ready made package. Meanwhile, there are those who cut their way through the dense jungle with machetes.

Originally posted by Firefox14

And with crazy math calculations that often bewilders the average individual, the churn rate seems astronomical. So this is for some of the more successful bettors out there. I ask, "If I was a child, a protege, and you had to give me a crash course in handicapping, and it was your job to teach me all the skills to be successful, could you do that? Is their a system, a teaching methodology that will create undoubted success?

The exclusivity of this type of knowledge makes it much more expensive than a college education. The best models may redefine probability theory, and yet they are hidden, because if they were published the bookmakers would know as well. My advice, if you want it, is to learn and master the successive steps to success in a much simpler field than sports betting. Then move up to a somewhat more challenging field. This will create a history of success (upon which you can fall back), as well as an understanding of the universal steps to success. If you can master one thing, you can master another, once you understand the underlying process. One thing is certain. As long as you don't know how to educate yourself, you're wasting your time in sports betting.

**Firefox14** · 11-08-10, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

How is that ironic? People take years to pay off college debts. A sports bettor who publicly shares his edge weakens that edge. He would pay for his generosity.

You want a smooth asphalt pavement. A ready made package. Meanwhile, there are those who cut their way through the dense jungle with machetes.

The exclusivity of this type of knowledge makes it much more expensive than a college education. The best models may redefine probability theory, and yet they are hidden, because if they were published the bookmakers would know as well. My advice, if you want it, is to learn and master the successive steps to success in a much simpler field than sports betting. Then move up to a somewhat more challenging field. This will create a history of success (upon which you can fall back), as well as an understanding of the universal steps to success. If you can master one thing, you can master another, once you understand the underlying process. One thing is certain. As long as you don't know how to educate yourself, you're wasting your time in sports betting.

I'm pretty well educated, but thanks. In this field however, I admit, I am not. And once again, never did I state I wanted the easy way out. Easier access, spending less time finding THE useful information...That seems a better, more efficient way to research, i.e. reading encyclopedias opposed to browsing the internet...a world of difference. And I believe there may be a general overreaction in the capping community in regards to giving out helpful information. There seems to be this belief that if the lines makers find out my edge, I will no longer be successful. This means I'll have to re-work my edge to gain a more profitable edge to beat the books. My argument: If this in fact did happen, there would be another way, another loophole to jump through to gain an edge, and this would have happened already! In fact, it has happened already, and people adjust. IMO, this sounds amateurish, as a seasoned capper has endured the highs and lows of the various adjustments made throughout the years in the lines, and does not worry. This reminds me of high school when my less-intelligent friend wanted to cheat off my paper. Just because I would give him the answers from time to time, this didn't necessarily mean it would cause him to know more information than me, and literally steal my edge? Don't worry fellow cappers. Your edge is fine, and will be fine. No one will find out! In fact, many times I would envision that your picks match the same picks that are given by others for free on this site; and has that affected the lines? Regardless, I'm simply venting. I would love to stop this thread now, because, quite frankly, my fingers are tired; Oh, that's right, I better go learn how to type without my fingers tiring so quickly. Maybe I should research on how to type without going numb. But no one will probably assist me in this field, because they'll give away an edge, which would lead me to being the world's fastest typer, thus outdoing my mentors. World domination would incur! "Yes! I've beat them! I've won! The world is mine for the taking! Serenity now! Fellow typists beware! I have the knowledge! I have the power! Nothing will ever stop the power of my furiously fast fingers! Yes!"