Is motivation the biggest bs factor in sports?

**TomG** · 10-12-10, 06:08 PM

1) Motivation is difficult to quantify numerically and thus a potential source of value in which most lines are simply power rating generated by machines.

2) Motivation is less important in "finesse" supports such as baseball, more important in "physical" sports such as football.

3) The importance of motivation is waaaaay overstated and most analysts that cite motivation are full of BS.

**Dark Horse** · 10-13-10, 05:36 AM

Motivation is crucial. But you have to pick your spots carefully, and not assume that you already know how to recognize it based on two or three guidelines somebody once wrote (common mistake). For a crash course in motivation, watch every single game of your local NBA team this season. Chances are you'll start seeing things you never considered before. In my opinion NBA is best for this, because of two elements:

1) clear high/low motivational fluctuations during season, as well as in-game; NBA season is much too long to be 'up' every night (forget college basketball, where non-motivated players are immediately benched).
2) lots of scoring; more opportunity for motivation, and motivational fluctuations, to translate into scoreline.

Do not listen to 'math geniuses' in the think tank for this stuff. It's not the same side of the brain. Instead, listen to Magic Johnson, and other former basketball players (not named Charles Barkley) that comment on games. Suns commentator Eddie Johnson is very good for the inside scoop.

**Wrecktangle** · 10-13-10, 06:18 AM

I have to agree with DH. In the NBA last year, I was struck by the teams transmogrifying from so-so play the last several months of reg. season games to the post season zeal where every game counted.

**Sawyer** · 10-13-10, 06:47 AM

Motivation is important but team that should be motivated don't always win. Motivation factor is usually overrated by betting public.

**gman2114** · 10-13-10, 08:57 AM

Motivation is the biggest factor in sports. Pro athletes don't make the bigs by just being in cruise control. They bust their ass and are motivatied to prove themselves. Sometimes the grind gets to them for a period of time. But if you can't factor in motivation to your handicapping. Then the bookies will be sending you that limo again, once your cheque clears.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 10-13-10, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by gman2114

Motivation is the biggest factor in sports. Pro athletes don't make the bigs by just being in cruise control. They bust their ass and are motivatied to prove themselves. Sometimes the grind gets to them for a period of time. But if you can't factor in motivation to your handicapping. Then the bookies will be sending you that limo again, once your cheque clears.

the problem with this is assuming one team's motivation is that much different from another

I can see it coming up in NBA on rare occasions.

I think it's hogwash for the NFL where nearly everu guy in the league will clearly be 'up' for every game in a 16 week one game a week format

**Dark Horse** · 10-13-10, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop

I think it's hogwash for the NFL where nearly everu guy in the league will clearly be 'up' for every game in a 16 week one game a week format

The NFL is very reactionary; particularly with regard to the previous week. Chargers are an example of a team with uneven motivation. The loss in Seattle focused them. They next destroyed the Cards. And relaxed again... Up and down, like a yoyo. About that home game against Arizona. The Cards had just come off a last second missed FG win over Oakland. Betting on an angry team versus a celebrating team is often a good idea; twice the motivational dose. (Next thing you know, the humiliated Cardinals beat the Superbowl champion... lol)

And if something sticks out in the previous week, like a terrible rushing record, you can bet your ass the coaching staff will focus on it. I consider that motivational as well, but at a coaching level.

**southie** · 10-13-10, 04:24 PM

"should win" or "have to win" situations are often go-against. How often do people mention this in their writing, and more often than not the team not only doesn't cover but loses outright. Definitely over-rated, and more often than not fade potential.

**Salamander** · 10-14-10, 03:53 AM

Sport dependent I would think, no? Motivation in individual sports like golf, tennis, darts, etc... more volatile than team sports one would think. Besides, in team sports motivation lasts for about the first 3 minutes of the game, and then the two teams can tell who is the dominant one, much like two animals in the wild fighting each other for the right to mate. Plenty of motivation there, but they know quickly who's da boss, and all the motivation ain't gonna change that. Man, I am writing like the prick now.

**hagi1984** · 10-14-10, 04:39 AM

not the biggest

**MadTiger** · 10-14-10, 05:24 AM

BS? - no.

Undervalued? - Yes
Overvalued? - Uh, yes.

Motivation can't be easily quantified, as was already stated, but it should never be ignored. Traditional rivalry can strengthen resolve to prevail, for example, and reversing a losing trend in those match-ups can take a team over the hump, so to speak. If the teams are very close in power rankings, and one team has lost the last three match-ups, the motivation for the other team to reverse that trend is strong.

**That Foreign Guy** · 10-14-10, 06:43 AM

The problem with motivation is that it is mostly visible in hindsight. You can find a good reason for anything, especially when you introduce the sports psych concept of over-arousal (basically being too UP can cause poor performance).

"Oh they've lost three in a row they want to turn it around" vs "Oh they lost three in a row so they're demoralised" both are plausible.

**Wrecktangle** · 10-14-10, 06:53 AM

In the NFL last year you had several games at the end of the season that were clear "de-motivation" games: Indy and New Orleans stick out in their last 3 reg. season games. The market clearly recognized it, too.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 10-14-10, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

The NFL is very reactionary; particularly with regard to the previous week. Chargers are an example of a team with uneven motivation. The loss in Seattle focused them. They next destroyed the Cards. And relaxed again... Up and down, like a yoyo. About that home game against Arizona. The Cards had just come off a last second missed FG win over Oakland. Betting on an angry team versus a celebrating team is often a good idea; twice the motivational dose. (Next thing you know, the humiliated Cardinals beat the Superbowl champion... lol) And if something sticks out in the previous week, like a terrible rushing record, you can bet your ass the coaching staff will focus on it. I consider that motivational as well, but at a coaching level.

or, you're just watching variance/dice rolls and attaching some false narrative to what you are seeing.
I'd say the Chargers are the prime example of that. 2 punt blocks and an unfortunate close call not going their way in the last minute weighed in pretty heavily to the Oakland result.
The game against the Seahawks also had lots of 'odd' bounces not go the Chargers way.
Now, let's get to the Cards over the Saints. Do you know the Cards scored 30 points without a rush or pass for a TD? Every single bounce and deflection in the game went the Cards way. The Saints only had 2.4 ypp more over the Cards.

IMO, you would benefit greatly from realizing that you are mainly watching dice rolls. Quit trying to explain the results by constructing some narrative. Realize it's mainly variance.

**wrongturn** · 10-14-10, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Motivation is crucial. But you have to pick your spots carefully, and not assume that you already know how to recognize it based on two or three guidelines somebody once wrote (common mistake). For a crash course in motivation, watch every single game of your local NBA team this season. Chances are you'll start seeing things you never considered before. In my opinion NBA is best for this, because of two elements:

1) clear high/low motivational fluctuations during season, as well as in-game; NBA season is much too long to be 'up' every night (forget college basketball, where non-motivated players are immediately benched).
2) lots of scoring; more opportunity for motivation, and motivational fluctuations, to translate into scoreline.

Do not listen to 'math geniuses' in the think tank for this stuff. It's not the same side of the brain. Instead, listen to Magic Johnson, and other former basketball players (not named Charles Barkley) that comment on games. Suns commentator Eddie Johnson is very good for the inside scoop.

Very good information.

Fading Barkley is normally good because he has gambling thinking mixed in, I guess.

**Dark Horse** · 10-14-10, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop

IMO, you would benefit greatly from realizing that you are mainly watching dice rolls. Quit trying to explain the results by constructing some narrative. Realize it's mainly variance.

lol

It's all just dice rolling. Einstein, that devious pattern recognizer, would disagree with you; but he was on the train of people who questioned everything, rather than already knew it all. Personally, I like nothing better than to pulverize to fine dust what I think I know. And so far, five weeks into the NFL season, the resulting models work just fine (37-22-1 ATS on record at SBR). So while I appreciate your kind advice, I think I'll stick with total destruction.

**statictheory** · 10-15-10, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by dynamite140

I always hear people or commentators say that a team is in a must win situation or they are going to be motivated to win the game. Or something along the lines of they got beaten by that team last time and will make sure they play harder this time. Is it more or does anyone think this is bs talk. How the heck do you know this team is going to be motivated? For little you know, many members of a team might be thinking about something else like their vacation or whatnot and they just gaved up. How do you know the other team will lookahead to the following week because the team they play is much worst than them. They might actually be more pumped up the game than the other team. Hell, they might not give the best effort but still win easily against the other team. Does anyone think like this? I know REVENGE is a factor but really do most sport athletes really care that much? All pro athletes get paid anyways as long as they don't show really poor performance, they won't get cut from a team. College sports though is a bit different however but still it is not that big of a factor. Better athleticism usually wins.

But does anyone else feel motivation is just bs talk? The thing i cannot stand the most on TV when in a NFL or NBA game is when this guy gets the ball over the other guy and the announcers say he just wanted it more... Oh really, how about he is just faster and quicker than the other guy. Or maybe he is actually slower than the other guy and got lucky because the other player ran but the other guy just gave a speed burst like he never had in his career. The guy can be slower and still want it more yet he still lose to the other guy who cares less but is just quicker than him. I honestly think this motivation and want it more is just TV BS talk.

Does anyone else agree with me or am i completely wrong here?

There is a difference between a team being motivated and a tv commentator trying to be interesting.
Motivation is not bs. If you think athletes are there solely for the money and dont care about winning youd be wrong. There is a class of bettors that are trying to get info from teams directly(via inside contacts etc) to weigh that type of information , and they very well could be the smartest money. You cant get it from the stats

**statictheory** · 10-15-10, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

lol

It's all just dice rolling. Einstein, that devious pattern recognizer, would disagree with you; but he was on the train of people who questioned everything, rather than already knew it all. Personally, I like nothing better than to pulverize to fine dust what I think I know. And so far, five weeks into the NFL season, the resulting models work just fine (37-22-1 ATS on record at SBR). So while I appreciate your kind advice, I think I'll stick with total destruction.

where are your picks dh?

**Dark Horse** · 10-15-10, 04:51 PM

I'll pm you the link. Superstitious. lol

In reality, most weeks feel like skating on thin ice. Week 6 is no exception.

**statictheory** · 10-15-10, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

I'll pm you the link. Superstitious. lol

In reality, most weeks feel like skating on thin ice. Week 6 is no exception.

thx again and good luck

**PRC** · 10-15-10, 10:35 PM

In my opinion, yes it is. In 99% of games, the players have a (often financial) reason to play their best.

**Glitch** · 10-18-10, 07:37 AM

Many great academic schools perform poorly athletically. Some automatically attribute this to the narrowing of the prospect choices by the high scholastic requirements. Maybe part of it is the fact that they know they're getting a degree from Vanderbilt or UPenn, most likely won't make the Pros and dont REALLY care that much.

Also, how many teams play better in a revenge spot or even a bounce-back one. It does seem like a lot. This motivation is hard to measure or quantify but it exists. I imagine an NFL team that needs to win their last two games to make the playoffs is way more trust-worthy than they were 5 weeks prior to finding themselves in this situation.