Following line movement... does it work?

[shroomysoup]

I'm pretty new to the handicapping scene. I started following line movement for college football this week, but I didn't bet the games. If I picked the games that I thought would be good according to line movement I would have made money rather than lose money this weekend. The question is, is following line movement a good way to go when it comes to college football and the NFL?

[frankthetank]

it's hit or miss. somedays line movement you will cash and others you will not. last minute huge plays from wise guys can move a line big and this is referred to as a "steam play". some people swear by them but the key is getting it before it moves two points, two minutes til kickoff. good luck!

[Shonner]

it's hit or miss. somedays line movement you will cash and others you will not. last minute huge plays from wise guys can move a line big and this is referred to as a "steam play". some people swear by them but the key is getting it before it moves two points, two minutes til kickoff. good luck!

I love that the general handicapping public consider a play "steam" or "smart" because it has big $. As if the more you bet, the better you are...this is considered general knowledge in the sports betting world and I disagree with it 100%.

smart money has nothing to do with big money in reality...

[Justin7]

smart money has nothing to do with big money in reality...

Huh?

If you win, your bankroll grows. Smart, small money becomes smart big money.

If you're not a winning player, you lose. Big dumb money becomes smaller. A few independently wealthy people are immune to this.

Evolution turns smart money into big money.

[Shonner]

Huh?

If you win, your bankroll grows. Smart, small money becomes smart big money.

If you're not a winning player, you lose. Big dumb money becomes smaller. A few independently wealthy people are immune to this.

Evolution turns smart money into big money.

I understand the theory, logic and understanding that it's considered 'fact' in this industry, but respectfully disagree to a point.

The problem with that theory in my opinion is that people who bet big are doing so because they have a steady income (e.g., own their own profitable business, are wall street bankers). Maybe this is incorrect and biased because of the industry work in and the stuff I see on an every day basis.

[steve227]

nuff said

[sharpcat]

I understand the theory, logic and understanding that it's considered 'fact' in this industry, but respectfully disagree to a point.

The problem with that theory in my opinion is that people who bet big are doing so because they have a steady income (e.g., own their own profitable business, are wall street bankers). Maybe this is incorrect and biased because of the industry work in and the stuff I see on an every day basis.

Although some large wagers come from wealthy squares, a much larger majority of it comes from sharp money.

Where a whale may max bet a game that he likes 1 time wiseguys may max bet the line at several books each time the line moves until it no longer has any value

[gangeriver]

I'm pretty new to the handicapping scene. I started following line movement for college football this week, but I didn't bet the games. If I picked the games that I thought would be good according to line movement I would have made money rather than lose money this weekend. The question is, is following line movement a good way to go when it comes to college football and the NFL?

unfortunately you will take bad lines. while sharps win, you will lose sometimes.

[JustinBieber]

it's hit or miss. somedays line movement you will cash and others you will not. last minute huge plays from wise guys can move a line big and this is referred to as a "steam play". some people swear by them but the key is getting it before it moves two points, two minutes til kickoff. good luck!

Please provide an nfl game which has moved 2 points 2 minutes before kickoff.

[frankthetank]

Usually Over/Unders will move more on a steam play in the NFL. College lines are more apt to move more.
One year in the bowl games, I did nothing but play steam lines and went something like 12-2. Hope this helps. PS - Cleveland this last week went from +3 to +1 at most books Sunday morn. And guess what, Cleveland won. And guess what, so did I.

Please provide an nfl game which has moved 2 points 2 minutes before kickoff.

[Flight]

If I picked the games that I thought would be good according to line movement

The problem is you are still guessing at the line movement. Do this enough times and you will realize it's just a guess, just like how people guess at the side or guess at the stock market. Those that do well deem themselves clairvoyant; those that lose 'had some bad luck'.

What you need is to predict it before it moves. Just like picking a stock price before it changes.

It's harder than it sounds. I'm just trying to caution you to not guess on line movement; it's no different than guessing on the side.

[frankthetank]

Nail on the head Flight. Exactly.

[TakeIt]

i've seen no evidence that following line moves works. some days it does, some days it doesn't. the bookie wins again.

[donjuan]

i've seen no evidence that following line moves works. some days it does, some days it doesn't. the bookie wins again.

Cool story, bro. Books just cut limits and ban for fun when you do it.

[TakeIt]

Cool story, bro. Books just cut limits and ban for fun when you do it.

if the line moves from -4 to -7 and i bet the -7, the bookie is going to cut my limits or ban me?

i think not. he'll probably send a limo.

[donjuan]

if the line moves from -4 to -7 and i bet the -7, the bookie is going to cut my limits or ban me?

i think not. he'll probably send a limo.

I'm talking about betting it at it's old price.

[roasthawg]

I'm talking about betting it at it's old price.

That's steam chasing... not what is being discussed here I don't think.

[JayTrotter]

line moves are important in context. without context line moves are pretty much chasing ghosts.

In my opinion the casinos make money based on taking advantage of gambler psychology, more than anything else. I would say the line moves for the most part are arbitrary. if a line goes from -12.5 to -10.5, or -6.5 to -3.5, realistically very little has changed in terms of outcome probability...

If you can put the line movement together in such a way as to determine that vegas is looking for bets on one side, then you have something. By themselves line movements are meaningless..

[JayTrotter]

on the note of being banned.

If the casino evaluates that you are offering too much risk, they will ban you or cut your limits. online they have a lot more right to refusal.. very seldom will vegas take large bets from unknown money. Vegas is not in the business of gambling. which is kind of funny.

[djiddish98]

I would say the line moves for the most part are arbitrary. if a line goes from -12.5 to -10.5, or -6.5 to -3.5, realistically very little has changed in terms of outcome probability...

If that was true:

A) you'd be a fool not to take any alternate line for longer odds
or
B) alternate line bets would be priced the same as the main spread and you could buy points for free.

But this obviously isn't the case.

[jgilmartin]

If that was true:

A) you'd be a fool not to take any alternate line for longer odds
or
B) alternate line bets would be priced the same as the main spread and you could buy points for free.

But this obviously isn't the case.

This.

[jojo85]

it would be true if by very little he meant a lot...

[Flight]

JayTrotter, you need to understand that line points are worth percentage points of win probability, and therefore directly related to a handicapper's success.

Many will reject this hypothesis. Then go on to bet the number regardless of whether it's -6.5 or -7, simply because "The Packers Rule" or "Bama dominates". They may win or lose the game and the number didn't matter for that particular instance, but if you continue to gamble (most do), that last 2.5-5% of value you are squeezing out by always getting the best number is quite significant and makes the difference between winning and losing (or losing and pushing).

If one rejects this hypothesis, then they are most likely a novice gambler, or an experienced gambler that is a long term loser.

[wildbill044]

I prefer to go against the squares that move the line. Opening lines that move 3 points, but in half point increments, over a few days is one way to go. Sometimes you hit that game 5-6 hours before it goes off, then you see the sharps jump in there and move it back down a couple points in an hour. That might be something to look at when trying to "guess" which way the sharps are going to bet. If it comes back toward the open by a point in a matter of a half hour, better jump on it before it goes even more. You might not get the best value, but still value nontheless.

[gman2114]

Best handicapping method. Set your own lines before they post or you view them. The wager proportionally on the differences. +3 units is bet heavier than a 0 (same prediction as Vegas). This puts the whole responsibility of you to handicap. If you don't like it mark it as fun. Track your precentage. See how you do.

[ripit4me]

line moves are important in context. without context line moves are pretty much chasing ghosts.

In my opinion the casinos make money based on taking advantage of gambler psychology, more than anything else. I would say the line moves for the most part are arbitrary. if a line goes from -12.5 to -10.5, or -6.5 to -3.5, realistically very little has changed in terms of outcome probability...

If you can put the line movement together in such a way as to determine that vegas is looking for bets on one side, then you have something. By themselves line movements are meaningless..

how do you interpret these, line movements this weekend)
jacksonville vs buffalo +1 to -2; buffalo lost
new orleans (-3 to -7 overnight) vs arizona, new orleans lost
stanford (-6 to -10) vs USC, stanford didn't cover
syracuse vs fsu (-11 to -8) syracuse wins 13 to 9
M-OH vs Cincinatti(-14 to -17) cincinatti wins big
utah (-7.5 to -6) vs iowa st, utah wins big

[Thremp]

Selection bias.

[JustinBieber]

Usually Over/Unders will move more on a steam play in the NFL. College lines are more apt to move more.
One year in the bowl games, I did nothing but play steam lines and went something like 12-2. Hope this helps. PS - Cleveland this last week went from +3 to +1 at most books Sunday morn. And guess what, Cleveland won. And guess what, so did I.

I also had Cleveland but when I check the archived odds they closed at +2.5/+3. I can't find a single book which closed at +1. Im not disputing that you didn't go 12-2 on steam but you're fabricating bullshit about 2 pt line moves minutes before kickoff, especially on NFL spreads.

[RonPaul2008]

I prefer to go against the squares that move the line. Opening lines that move 3 points, but in half point increments, over a few days is one way to go. Sometimes you hit that game 5-6 hours before it goes off, then you see the sharps jump in there and move it back down a couple points in an hour. That might be something to look at when trying to "guess" which way the sharps are going to bet. If it comes back toward the open by a point in a matter of a half hour, better jump on it before it goes even more. You might not get the best value, but still value nontheless.

In this case, your bet and the original line may both be +EV.

[wildbill044]

It's all just too time consuming. shopping lines and staying on it 24/7. punching numbers into the kelly calc for 30+ games. I prefer to find one system that spits out 3-5 games a day and ride it. Here's the key to line movement: Get a great system, then make so much money that YOU move the line.

[durito]

new orleans (-3 to -7 overnight) vs arizona, new orleans lost

Cris Line History

New Orleans / Arizona
10/10/10 11:23:21am
429
New Orleans
-6½-10
Arizona
+6½-10
10/10/10 11:22:55am
429
New Orleans
-7-10
Arizona
+7-10
10/09/10 11:59:01am
429
New Orleans
-6½-10
Arizona
+6½-10
10/08/10 07:11:52pm
429
New Orleans
-7-10
Arizona
+7-10
10/08/10 11:16:41am
429
New Orleans
-6½-10
Arizona
+6½-10
10/08/10 11:16:39am
429
New Orleans
-6-10
Arizona
+6-10
10/08/10 10:35:31am
429
New Orleans
-7-10
Arizona
+7-10
10/05/10 03:21:08pm
429
New Orleans
-6½-10
Arizona
+6½-10
10/04/10 09:51:56am
429
New Orleans
-7-10
Arizona
+7-10
10/03/10 08:00:40pm
429
New Orleans
-6½-10
Arizona
+6½-10
10/03/10 07:47:43pm
429
New Orleans
-7-10
Arizona
+7-10
10/03/10 07:35:53pm
429
New Orleans
-6½-10
Arizona
+6½-10
10/03/10 07:33:58pm
429
New Orleans
-7-10
Arizona
+7-10
10/03/10 07:33:25pm
429
New Orleans
-7½-10
Arizona
+7½-10

[brumbies]

Do you think the players on the field give a damn whether the line moves against/for their team?

[JustinBieber]

No I dont think they do. But that doesn't matter at all does it.

[rsktkr]

Here's a ? I have. At the larger sports book places, how much money has to be laid down to move the line .5 point?

[QuantumLeap]

how do you interpret these, line movements this weekend)
jacksonville vs buffalo +1 to -2; buffalo lost
new orleans (-3 to -7 overnight) vs arizona, new orleans lost
stanford (-6 to -10) vs USC, stanford didn't cover
syracuse vs fsu (-11 to -8) syracuse wins 13 to 9
M-OH vs Cincinatti(-14 to -17) cincinatti wins big
utah (-7.5 to -6) vs iowa st, utah wins big

Lines move for different reasons. For example, Arizona started a rookie QB against New Orleans so the line went toward the Saints. The fact that the Cardinals covered was due to factors that outweighed the rookie QB.

Injuries can also cause a line to move up like tonight's game with UCLA vs. Oregon. It was announced that the starting QB for UCLA would not play so the line went from -24 to eventually -26'.

The Cincinnati line went from -14 to -17 slowly but if you were watching just before kickoff, Pinnacle moved it to -19' while other books kept it at -17. The movement from -14 to -17 doesn't necessarily mean the sharps were moving the line though. Perhaps there was news out just before kickoff that bettors at Pinnacle knew would cause Cincy to win big.