Football Money Lines (Bookmaker)

[Sean81]

I very rarely play money lines in football but noticed the spreads on these are very tight at bookmaker. For instance its:

Arizona St. +145
Oregon St. -165

This has a theoretical hold of ~2.9%, or 35% less than the -110 spread pricing.

Is it safe to say you would lose less money in the long run (per $1 bet) by randomly betting money lines over point spreads at these levels, or am I missing something?

I am sure the money management equation becomes very complicated if only playing ML's, but does anyone have experience playing these primarily and would like to share any pros/cons.

Thanks

[Justin7]

If you play MLB, you play a lot of moneylines. You're right though -- in general, the lower the hold the better. You should check the MLs at Pinnacle, and Matchbook an hour before the game goes.

[Shonner]

If you play MLB, you play a lot of moneylines. You're right though -- in general, the lower the hold the better. You should check the MLs at Pinnacle, and Matchbook an hour before the game goes.

Justin, is there a tool that allows you to calculate the true odds of a moneyline (0 vig)?

So basically, if the line is -110 / -110, the 0 vig line is 100 / 100

is there a took to calculate it for the example given -165 / +145??

[clarkacal]

It seems like figuring true odds of a moneyline would be much more inexact than a pointspread. Especially with 3 and 7 in football there are wide ranges of moneylines across different games.

[Shonner]

I could have sworn I have see it before. Maybe I'm wrong.

[jgilmartin]

Justin, is there a tool that allows you to calculate the true odds of a moneyline (0 vig)?

So basically, if the line is -110 / -110, the 0 vig line is 100 / 100

is there a took to calculate it for the example given -165 / +145??

If you have Excel, you can do it with Ganchrow's Functions:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/29621-simple-vba-sports-betting-functions-template-excel.html

Or check this thread:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/327630-how-do-you-calculate-no-vig-line-mls.html

[Shonner]

If you have Excel, you can do it with Ganchrow's Functions:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/29621-simple-vba-sports-betting-functions-template-excel.html

Thanks.

[xyz]

Is it safe to say you would lose less money in the long run (per $1 bet) by randomly betting money lines over point spreads at these levels, or am I missing something?

The goal is to make money. Losing less money over the long run can still cost you alot of money.

[Sean81]

The goal is to make money. Losing less money over the long run can still cost you alot of money.

Thats not the point I was trying to make, notice I said randomly betting money lines.