How often do you see Arbitrage Opportunies in the NFL?

**dynamite140** · 09-20-10, 05:28 PM

How often do you see Arbitrage Opportunies in the NFL?

Someone posted this earlier

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/681133-sia-has-6-point-line-mnf-game.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

It had San Francisco +6 (+100) on SIA. Fishhead came and pointed out that you could get New Orleans -5.5 (+107) on Matchbook at that time.

He said

-5.5 +107 matchbook 1000-1070
+6 ev sia 1000-1000

three scenarios

1. Make 70
2. Breakeven
3, make 1070

Basically, this is a risk free bet and you are essentially freerolling for $1070 if New Orleans wins by exactly 6. You could even scalp this bet and win around $34 no matter which side you bet on if you use a scalpulator instead of doing the method shown above which would make you $70 Saints win by 7 or more but if they win by 5 or less or lose the game, you breakeven.

I know in order to scalp games, you need to have matchbook and SIA or bodog for football because of their underdog lines. But does anyone know how often these situations come up per year in the NFL? I know SIA limits or boots you and bodog might limit you though i rarely heard that happen. They just give dual lines. But i noticed that many NFL games like yesterday you could have gotten Jets +3 (+105) on Bodog and gotten Patriots -3 on Matchbook for (+109). I know that is not a lot but if you bet $1000, it would help your rollover or you can make very small profits. The only negative thing i see about this is that its HARD to get money in matchbook so i rather win my bet on matchbook and lose on bodog.

I also noticed that in many 2nd Half NFL games, bodog gives some opportunities to scalp especially with the O/U lines. You might see Under 24 (+115) on bodog and Over 24 (+110) on matchbook but i notice this only happens on Sunday night or Monday night games.

Does anyone know how often these opportunities happen in the NFL? Using the Saints-49ers example, someone could have basically freerolled for $1070 in that bet if Saints win by exactly 6 but now those lines are gone. I'm not sure what is the most you can bet at bodog or SIA but pretty sure $1000 would be no problem.

**Fishhead** · 09-20-10, 05:31 PM

Everyday there is an NFL game.......

Tonight, I will have no less then 15 PROPS scalped/middled at various books.

Now remember, I have a semi-large bankroll, which is key to making this worthwhile........but even small bankrolls can profit quite well, especially with bonues thrown into the mix.

**Flight** · 09-20-10, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Tonight, I will have no less then 15 PROPS scalped/middled at various books.

And I thought I did well with THREE props tonight...

**dynamite140** · 09-20-10, 05:47 PM

Fishhead, i know you have tons of outs. But i really like to know how do you deposit money into all those books You mention you have a semi-large bankroll. I would estimate that is at least $100,000 or so or is that number too low? But how do you get this money into these books? I mean if you use ** the limit is around $2500 once every 7 days and ** is $1500 every 8 days or so. Do you get friends to help you send deposits since you the sender can send once every 7-8 days only?? Do you use bank wires because that method you can deposit $5,000 , $20000, $50000 pretty easily or so as i heard. How do you deposit into matchbook?? I know you say book to book transfers but that would require you to put a lot of money into thegreek, 5dimes, betjamaica etc and the limits they have are at most $2500 per transaction per 7 days if you are the sender.

Are you saying that if you find at LEAST 1 scalp per NFL Sunday with matchbook, SIA and bodog? Can you tell us what books do scalped/middled? 15 PROPS IN???? Or is that information secret???

Also, you say the KEY HEREis to lose the SIA SIDE in these kind of bets like with the Saints and the 49ers. But how do YOU deposit into SIA? I checked their deposit options and it seems horrible there. Can you deposit at least $5000 at a time easily there for you to make these arbs worthwhile? Do you get friends to help you send money to load into your account?

**Boner_18** · 09-20-10, 06:01 PM

Props are the best places to find true scalps in NFL. Spreads and totals are pretty efficient. Liquidity is a pain in the ass too so unless you can tie up a lot at various books it's not "worth it." I do it just for the thrill of the hunt tho.

**yisman** · 09-20-10, 06:07 PM

There are several every weekend.

You get this in NCAAF and NFL moreso than in other sports.

**forsberg21** · 09-20-10, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by dynamite140

Fishhead, i know you have tons of outs. But i really like to know how do you deposit money into all those books You mention you have a semi-large bankroll. I would estimate that is at least $100,000 or so or is that number too low? But how do you get this money into these books? I mean if you use ** the limit is around $2500 once every 7 days and ** is $1500 every 8 days or so. Do you get friends to help you send deposits since you the sender can send once every 7-8 days only?? Do you use bank wires because that method you can deposit $5,000 , $20000, $50000 pretty easily or so as i heard. How do you deposit into matchbook?? I know you say book to book transfers but that would require you to put a lot of money into thegreek, 5dimes, betjamaica etc and the limits they have are at most $2500 per transaction per 7 days if you are the sender. Are you saying that if you find at LEAST 1 scalp per NFL Sunday with matchbook, SIA and bodog? Can you tell us what books do scalped/middled? 15 PROPS IN???? Or is that information secret??? Also, you say the KEY HEREis to lose the SIA SIDE in these kind of bets like with the Saints and the 49ers. But how do YOU deposit into SIA? I checked their deposit options and it seems horrible there. Can you deposit at least $5000 at a time easily there for you to make these arbs worthwhile? Do you get friends to help you send money to load into your account?

Moneybookers makes this process a lot less painful... it's too bad the Yanks can't use it

**durito** · 09-20-10, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Everyday there is an NFL game.......

Tonight, I will have no less then 15 PROPS scalped/middled at various books.

Now remember, I have a semi-large bankroll, which is key to making this worthwhile........but even small bankrolls can profit quite well, especially with bonues thrown into the mix.

**durito** · 09-20-10, 06:29 PM

lol at losing the sia side

**OmgUrMom** · 09-20-10, 06:31 PM

explain what you mean durito, ive heard your one of the best!

why are you banging your head at fishheads post?

**donjuan** · 09-20-10, 07:55 PM

If you have full limits, SIA has a max bet of 2200 (risked) on NFL sides and Bodog max is 2k (to win/risk like most books). And Fishhead is a moron. Making it so you only win if the -EV side wins is idiotic, but then again so is arbing unless you're a huge pussy or have a micro-bankroll (see Kelly criterion and expected growth). You're much better off just betting the soft side of the arb the vast majority of the time.

**mathdotcom** · 09-20-10, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

If you have full limits, SIA has a max bet of 2200 (risked) on NFL sides and Bodog max is 2k (to win/risk like most books). And Fishhead is a moron. Making it so you only win if the -EV side wins is idiotic, but then again so is arbing unless you're a huge pussy or have a micro-bankroll (see Kelly criterion and expected growth). You're much better off just betting the soft side of the arb the vast majority of the time.

Originally posted by Fishhead

-5.5 +107 matchbook 1000-1070
+6 ev sia 1000-1000

three scenarios

1. Make 70
2. Breakeven
3, make 1070

THIS IS BUT ONE POSSIBLE WAYS TO ATTACK THIS

Plenty of guys on this forum making 6 figure incomes bonus whoring. Waking up whenever you want and working 1-2 hours a day is really a lifestyle worth mocking....

**donjuan** · 09-20-10, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Plenty of guys on this forum making 6 figure incomes bonus whoring. Waking up whenever you want and working 1-2 hours a day is really a lifestyle worth mocking....

LOL, you're better than this Mathy.

**LegitBet** · 09-20-10, 08:18 PM

what would you do in a case where you can get SF +6 -110, and the Saints -4 -110?
In other words an arb with more ponts, but you must lay juice on both/one sides?

**mathdotcom** · 09-20-10, 08:26 PM

And what would you do if you got SF +5.5 +200 and Saints -6.5 +200?

**yisman** · 09-20-10, 08:27 PM

^^ if one is clearly the soft side, then just let it ride on that side, like don was saying.

If fair value is actually, say, +5 (-110), then you should try for a middle.

1100 on both sides, and then hope the game lands from 4-6, which is a legitimate possibility.

**THE HITMAN** · 09-20-10, 08:40 PM

Sometimes when I have time & get bored, I go hunting. Takes a lotta bookwork or an autistic memory. I don't have the huge bankroll to make it super profitable (I just can't trust the houses, even the top tier ones, with all that much of my $$)
But, when I do find a nice one, I pull the trigger on it. I usually do halfsies, 1/2 bet on the most favorable or my favorite one. Then come back with the opposite half. Then do it over again. This eliminates most of the risk of one house pulling or changing the vig, etc. and sticking me with the whole one sided bet.

**yisman** · 09-20-10, 08:51 PM

hitman, instead of half, just try the minimum at each place to verify that you can bet it.

Then come back with the rest.

**JohnGalt2341** · 09-20-10, 09:31 PM

I'm fairly new to Scalping/Middling. I mostly use 5Dimes and Bodog for props in general. What are the top 3 to 5 Books for Props?

**charto911** · 09-20-10, 09:45 PM

thats what is called a value bet it rarely shows up on a weekly basis but if your like me and spend hundreds of hours going through this stuff you can always find an arbitrage opportunity just like this and profit form it. Keep up the good work and expect to see about 5 more of these this football season.

**donjuan** · 09-20-10, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

And what would you do if you got SF +5.5 +200 and Saints -6.5 +200?

Bet both obv. Don't be obtuse.

**yisman** · 09-20-10, 10:16 PM

I assumed mathy was joking. That's just too easy.

I wish there were opportunities like that. Max both and one will win a huge percentage of the time.

**durito** · 09-20-10, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by charto911

thats what is called a value bet it rarely shows up on a weekly basis but if your like me and spend hundreds of hours going through this stuff you can always find an arbitrage opportunity just like this and profit form it. Keep up the good work and expect to see about 5 more of these this football season.

Yes with hundreds of hours of work you will surely find 5 more arbs this year.

**JohnGalt2341** · 09-20-10, 11:41 PM

Does Matchbook have Prop bets? If so... where are they?

**aggieshawn** · 09-21-10, 12:01 AM

Betfair has some crazy numbers but never is the a real arbitage.

**dynamite140** · 09-21-10, 01:43 AM

Fishhead, i reallly like to know how you fund all your books. I mean you mentioned you have at least $2000 in every single book you use and use at least 15 books. Do you just get your friends to help you send with ** and **??

**pleasegod** · 09-21-10, 02:31 AM

nice value. nothing tastes better than value

**subs** · 09-22-10, 12:07 AM

hi

just a quick question do subscription arb sites work? i tried 2 but the line had moved almost every time i got there. any1 like a particular 1?

do the pro's build their own or just scan manually from multiple screens.
all the best fellas

**LVHerbie** · 09-23-10, 01:09 AM

You aren't limited to just scalping out the bet completely or letting the bet on the bad number ride... I'm going to assume (given what you are inquiring about and have posted) that you bankroll is somewhere between 0 and the point where you can let thousand dollar bets go unprotected so (in your example above) you are probably better off looking at a smaller percentage of the bet to scalp then you suggested but a greater percentage then zero (as others have suggested)...

But,as others have also alluded to (and you addressed in your own posts,) IMO there are other bigger problems then simply calculating the math of the scalp in your scenario and, honestly, I think if you get the answers here those giving them to you are making mistakes (for both you and themselves)... BOL

**RonPaul2008** · 09-24-10, 08:18 AM

Wow Fish, and one of the sides of these arbs was arbable when you took it or most of them you took one side when it wasn't yet an arb and waited until it was? Are any of these prop arbs between 2 major >b books?
At what time of week did you find these?

Much thanks Fish

Originally posted by Fishhead

Everyday there is an NFL game.......

Tonight, I will have no less then 15 PROPS scalped/middled at various books.

Now remember, I have a semi-large bankroll, which is key to making this worthwhile........but even small bankrolls can profit quite well, especially with bonues thrown into the mix.

**RonPaul2008** · 09-24-10, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by LegitBet

what would you do in a case where you can get SF +6 -110, and the Saints -4 -110?
In other words an arb with more ponts, but you must lay juice on both/one sides?

That is not worh 20 cents. Don't pay more then 16 cents for that.

**Fishhead** · 09-24-10, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by RonPaul2008

Wow Fish, and one of the sides of these arbs was arbable when you took it or most of them you took one side when it wasn't yet an arb and waited until it was? Are any of these prop arbs between 2 major >b books?
At what time of week did you find these?

Much thanks Fish

Most all are "instant"...........yes.

I would estimate that about 50% of these are done between what most would consider top 15 books..........the others not and something I would not like to disclose here on the forum.

**mathdotcom** · 09-24-10, 09:05 AM

Fish if you're scalping props (with max $1000 limits, most likely $500) you are throwing so much money away it's not funny.

**Fishhead** · 09-24-10, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Fish if you're scalping props (with max $1000 limits, most likely $500) you are throwing so much money away it's not funny.

First off, my limits range from $100-$5000 on various NFL PROPS..............

Secondly, because of certain situiations, scalping(or taking back a percentage ranging from 40-90%) works best for what I do...........

Been doing this for upteen years this works AS WELL or BETTER for my personal situation...........having said that, trust me, I know why you would state such and for many punters your statement rings very true.

As the old saying goes, THERE IS A METHOD TO MY MADNESS.........