Opening vs Closing line - Which one is sharper?

**roasthawg** · 09-19-10, 02:58 PM

Even if the market is inefficient the books still have more info to go off of the closer you get to gametime... no matter how you slice it the closer is more accurate than the opener.

**the shadow** · 09-19-10, 03:28 PM

I'll be standing in line to get those openers!

**Shonner** · 09-19-10, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by roasthawg

Even if the market is inefficient the books still have more info to go off of the closer you get to gametime... no matter how you slice it the closer is more accurate than the opener.

Thx for the info.

I just see huge line movements and it amazes me

**VegasVixen** · 09-19-10, 10:29 PM

Today was a good example of this (I think?). I bet Phil -3. when the line opened. After the Vick start was confirmed it moved all the way to -6/-7 at various books. I wasn't surprised to see the Eagles win by 3...

**Halifax** · 09-19-10, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by VegasVixen

Today was a good example of this (I think?). I bet Phil -3. when the line opened. After the Vick start was confirmed it moved all the way to -6/-7 at various books. I wasn't surprised to see the Eagles win by 3...

In your other post you said you took Philadelphia at -3.5 :

I also got it at -3.5, I got it at 5dimes late Monday night, booked @ 12:35 am.

Make up your mind.

**That Foreign Guy** · 09-20-10, 04:51 PM

I am pretty sure all the evidence out there suggests closers are more accurate than openers.

There's just more info available especially including smart money - which books definitely listen to.

**ssuperstar** · 09-21-10, 08:01 PM

The first line movement means the most, asses why the line moved. See if you can tell if its misleading or sharp

**subs** · 09-21-10, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by ssuperstar

The first line movement means the most, asses why the line moved. See if you can tell if its misleading or sharp

i have show me the odds (although i don't really use it enough) - if the % public goes down with a line move in your opinion is this then a sharp move? just wondering.

thanks

**HoulihansTX** · 09-22-10, 01:07 AM

total rook question

**subs** · 09-22-10, 08:48 PM

can't blame a brother for trying.....

**Dank_Fire** · 09-22-10, 10:07 PM

By far the closing line, Sharps and public have swayed the number in a more stable direction as game time nears

**andybord** · 09-22-10, 10:39 PM

May be a rookie question, but he is on to something here...at least judging by last year's NCAA results compared to the 5dimes openers and closers. I started tracking a lot of this stuff last year:

In NCAA Football, Out of 719 games (full season excluding bowl weeks), the final game margin swayed from the opening line 247 points and 629 points from the close line. The direction of the sway was towards the road team.

In other words, game 1 was NC State and South Carolina. The opening line was NC State (home team) -1.5 and closer was -5. Final game score was SC 7-3. Margin of +4, sway margin of +5.5 on the opener and +9 on the closer.

The same holds true for totals.

Sway margin on the opener was +25.9 and on the closer it was -100.5

In the NFL, through 15 weeks last year (I gave up tracking it around the holidays), the sway margin is +111.5 on the opening line and 77 on the closer.

For totals in the NFL, sway margin is +21.5 on the opener and +66.5 on the closer.

So for one season in 3 out of the 4 major buckets in football, the opening lines on 5dimes were actually more accurate than the closers.

I have all the raw data if people are interested. I sure hope this isn't being used as much of a handicapping tool however.

**Shonner** · 09-23-10, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by andybord

May be a rookie question, but he is on to something here...at least judging by last year's NCAA results compared to the 5dimes openers and closers. I started tracking a lot of this stuff last year:

In NCAA Football, Out of 719 games (full season excluding bowl weeks), the final game margin swayed from the opening line 247 points and 629 points from the close line. The direction of the sway was towards the road team.

In other words, game 1 was NC State and South Carolina. The opening line was NC State (home team) -1.5 and closer was -5. Final game score was SC 7-3. Margin of +4, sway margin of +5.5 on the opener and +9 on the closer.

The same holds true for totals.

Sway margin on the opener was +25.9 and on the closer it was -100.5

In the NFL, through 15 weeks last year (I gave up tracking it around the holidays), the sway margin is +111.5 on the opening line and 77 on the closer.

For totals in the NFL, sway margin is +21.5 on the opener and +66.5 on the closer.

So for one season in 3 out of the 4 major buckets in football, the opening lines on 5dimes were actually more accurate than the closers.

I have all the raw data if people are interested. I sure hope this isn't being used as much of a handicapping tool however.

thanks, that is helpful information.

i love how a bunch of these guys sit here and just call others rookies but have no evidence or anything to back it up.

of course if there's a major event (injury, suspension) the line would shift and in those cases the closer would be sharper.

i'm just sick of hearing that closing lines are more accurate, but ive never seen proof.

**Shonner** · 09-23-10, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

total rook question

shut the fukk up and keep your god damn mouth shut if you aren't going to provide useful info, you are a real cool SBR internet tough guy for calling that dude a rookie.

not everyone is as smart as you,

show me some fukken numbers or shut the fukk up

**trixtrix** · 09-23-10, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by Shonner

not everyone is as smart as you,

show me some fukken numbers or shut the fukk up