Wagering on 1 game a day vs Several games a day ??

[paw]

I am intrested in hearing the Theory on this ??

From a % standpoint I would have to think the numerous picks a day in the long run will certainly out-perform the 1 a day pick ?

As a matter of fact most High end gamblers play upwards of 10 to 15 plays a day if not more.

What is your Method ??

paw

[mador]

i play more then one pick a day
some day parlay it depend of what you have to bet on i mostly bet on soccer

[pimike]

1-3 a day!!!!!!!!!

[stikymess]

I am intrested in hearing the Theory on this ?? From a % standpoint I would have to think the numerous picks a day in the long run will certainly out-perform the 1 a day pick ? As a matter of fact most High end gamblers play upwards of 10 to 15 plays a day if not more. What is your Method ?? paw

Not sure if that is correct when you say "High end gamblers" play that many games. I hear different thoughts on this. At the end of the day you have to pick winners, whether you play one game or 15 games. On a regular day can you really like 15 games? I mean spend the time to handicap and REALLY like 15 games? I find maybe 2-3 games a day that I like enough to put money on. There are days where I don't play anything, cause nothing sticks out to me, so I pass on some days. You have to find that middle ground that suits you.

[SolidDala]

the math guy will say play 50 games if they all have +EV, a capper will say play big on less games 1-3 that you feel more sure of, both can be winners is all about what suits one the best.. Its easier form a capping point of view to go 2-1 then to go 6-3 on the night more often it lands on 5-4, 4-5 ...

[Peregrine Stoop]

1 pick at -110 with 57% expected win pct is what estimated growth? (and a very skeptical LOL to 95%+ of people that claim they can hit that 57%)

40 picks at -105 with 52% expected win pct is what estimated growth?

[sharpcat]

I generally bet between 10-20 a day.

[pimike]

the math guy will say play 50 games if they all have +EV, a capper will say play big on less games 1-3 that you feel more sure of, both can be winners is all about what suits one the best.. Its easier form a capping point of view to go 2-1 then to go 6-3 on the night more often it lands on 5-4, 4-5 ...

[the shadow]

I look for an advantage of 5% or more over the house. By using this method I find in general, 1 out of 30 games are worth playing. Do you want quality or quantity? I prefer quality!

[Sawyer]

You should play all games that you have an edge. It may be 1 pick/day, sometimes 2pick/day, sometimes 3pick/week.

[Pancho sanza]

Why frame your bets around this 24 hour time frame known as a day?

No reason to limit your plays this way.

Id bet my whole bankroll in an entire day if there were enough plays there.

[hockey216]

you will have better long term success if you only play ur STRONGEST play each day. you will hit higher percentage.

[Pancho sanza]

you will have better long term success if you only play ur STRONGEST play each day. you will hit higher percentage.

Not true at all.

[gangster]

agree with hockey216. i do exactly the same and earning some heavy bucks from gambling

[MB]

I try to find the best edge on 3-5 games. Some days I'll take a 1-0 or a 2-0 depending on what's on the board. Other days it's 3-2, 4-1, 5-0. I've gone 1-4 but never 0-5, because if I'm 0-3 or 1-4, I'll call it a day. It works for me. Everybody has their own thing. Those with a huge bankroll probably will want to find those 10-20 games they have an edge on and bet.

[MadTiger]

You should play all games that you have an edge. It may be 1 pick/day, sometimes 2pick/day, sometimes 3pick/week.

True.

But be really honest and truthful with determining whether you have an edge or not.

[splash]

you will have better long term success if you only play ur STRONGEST play each day. you will hit higher percentage.

Guys, this is the math heavy forum, right? So think about this hypothetically. The above statement doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If you have one play with a 10% edge and another play with a 9% edge, are you only going to bet the higher one? You're giving up money if you do. Conversely if there are no plays for the day with an edge, and you still bet your "strongest" play, you will be making a bad bet and lose money.

It really doesn't matter when you place each bet. The next bet is the next bet, no matter when you play it. There is no reason to structure your bets around an arbitrary time frame of 24 hours.

[rise]

bet 1-5 games a day maybe more on collegebasketball spend alot of time breaking down the games

[Peregrine Stoop]

you will have better long term success if you only play ur STRONGEST play each day. you will hit higher percentage.

estimated bankroll growth pwns winning percentage
especially so when most guys around here could always be on some sort of deposit/redeposit bonus and rollover

[skilz4milz]

People use 24 hours as a timeframe because you don't have visibility to lines weeks out. You have visibilty to the line out to not even 48 hours. (Of course unless you're betting Futures or MMA or something like that). So yes, the next bet is the next bet but most people are looking at it on a day by day basis I would think.

[sandylinch]

better several than only 1
No bet is sure!!!!!!!

[wildbill044]

I've tried both ways, and since I'm not disciplined enough to to lay off games I view as marginal and not good enough to pick a high percentage- I've always lost some. I've tried capping myself and following 1-5 guys at a time and have always hit them on their down weeks or had good weeks followed by very bad weeks. I'm sure most everyone is the same. I will, however, say that if I would stick to my "locks" only or games that fit my system and bet them big, I would be ahead. However, if you look at the covers site and track the top 30-50 money makers, by the end of the year, they are the guys that throw blanket picks over all the plays and hit somewhere in the 49-57% range. Just looking at baseball, not one player in the top 30 has less than 600 selections in MLB this year. Only one in the top 50 has less than 500- and he's got 400. You know all these guys play every pick at max value. the 49%ers obviously pick a lot of dogs. My point here is the guys who always win those contests have massive amounts of picks. Whether they are able to sustain it from sport to sport is probably another thing all together.

[Dark Horse]

Manning says it best: 'take what the defense gives you.'

Instead of focusing on number of bets, focus on improving your methods. That will give you more bets.

[Peeig]

go arr-in first hand...ldo

[donjuan]

Wagering on 1 game/day sounds like AIDS.

[Cheme82]

Between Saturday and Sunday I made 292 plays and I still have 6 pending for today. Any little edge is worth taking, it all adds up.

[That Foreign Guy]

292? Very nice - that's like 2 weeks worth of bets for me (although I am starting to reduce the margin of safety on my systems now that they have a reasonable winning record.

Are you full time? Do you usually play several bets on the same match?

[Cheme82]

Including 1st. Q, 1st. H, full game, and parlays I can have as many as 10 plays on the same game. I'm not a pro, I work and go to school (will graduate in December). I'm just taking advantage of a newfound edge. The edge is newfound not because it wasn't there before but because I didn't have the knowledge to exploit it until this season. I've read a lot of stuff and asked some people I respect for their opinions on how to go about it. Some have not answered (not trying to give away any "secrets" I guess), but a few have been really helpful (won't mention them not because I don't want to give them credit but because of privacy). I'm really not eating into anybody's hustle because I'm doing my thing with a local, not online.

I'm playing anything I have an edge on regardless of how big the edge is. I mean if I see a 0.10% edge I play that shit lol. That's why I get so many plays. So far:

NFL YTD
76-55-7 +17 units

CFB YTD
205-208-5 +29.75 units

[Wrecktangle]

Manning says it best: 'take what the defense gives you.'

Instead of focusing on number of bets, focus on improving your methods. That will give you more bets.

My take also. You should be constantly reworking your methods and data sets, especially methods. Leagues change, differing methods work with different sports, better data = better picks.

[TomG]

Assuming each wager is independent, then the concept of "day" is an arbitrary distinction.

[wildbill044]

what constitutes an edge, cheme? different for different sports. one books lines vs another? just curious.

[gryfyn1]

You should play all games that you have an edge. It may be 1 pick/day, sometimes 2pick/day, sometimes 3pick/week.

I think this is where some poeple get off-track. If you are doing this but are finding you have an edge in 10,15 or 20 games every day chances are you are overestimating you edge.

[Cheme82]

Say I play with a local that deals me -105 on both sides, he has a 2.38% edge on either side I choose. Now imagine his lines are from a book that caters to the public so they have over-valued favorites on a daily basis. Now let's say that on an NFL game most books have the line at -3 but the book he gets the lines from has the game at -3.5, not because that's the true line but because they know most of the action will come on the favorite. I grab the dog +3.5 at -105 when in reality the line should be +3.5 -128.5. So I'm saving almost 25 cents in juice by getting a free half point off a key number and effectively turned his 2.38% edge to 7.18% in my favor.

This is a huge edge, even bookies that have regular 10% juice don't operate with that kind of margin (their is 4.55%). But also on smaller edges I will pull the trigger. Another NFL game with a -7 -108, +7 -102 line at pinnacle for example. The true line for -6.5 should be -121.3, now I can buy off the 7 for 10 cents and since my line is -105 to begin with I can get -6.5 -115 which saves me 6.3 cents in juice and turns the bet in my favor by 0.05%. I will make that play too. I wish I had the time to use Kelly for my bet size but I'm busy so I'm just flat betting everything right now. Started betting 1 unit (1% of the bankroll per bet, will go up to 1.5 units as of this week).

[wildbill044]

Say I play with a local that deals me -105 on both sides, he has a 2.38% edge on either side I choose. Now imagine his lines are from a book that caters to the public so they have over-valued favorites on a daily basis. Now let's say that on an NFL game most books have the line at -3 but the book he gets the lines from has the game at -3.5, not because that's the true line but because they know most of the action will come on the favorite. I grab the dog +3.5 at -105 when in reality the line should be +3.5 -128.5. So I'm saving almost 25 cents in juice by getting a free half point off a key number and effectively turned his 2.38% edge to 7.18% in my favor.

This is a huge edge, even bookies that have regular 10% juice don't operate with that kind of margin (their is 4.55%). But also on smaller edges I will pull the trigger. Another NFL game with a -7 -108, +7 -102 line at pinnacle for example. The true line for -6.5 should be -121.3, now I can buy off the 7 for 10 cents and since my line is -105 to begin with I can get -6.5 -115 which saves me 6.3 cents in juice and turns the bet in my favor by 0.05%. I will make that play too. I wish I had the time to use Kelly for my bet size but I'm busy so I'm just flat betting everything right now. Started betting 1 unit (1% of the bankroll per bet, will go up to 1.5 units as of this week).

Dude, I have an IQ in the upper 140's and you're makin my shit spin- LOL.

At my age, I would rather have guys like you put in all the hours and do all the calculations and I'll just bet what you tell me. That's some straight up 21 shit there. Do you count cards in BJ as well?

[Cheme82]

Do you know how to use this:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting+tools/half+point+calculator.aspx

That's my money-printing machine right now. I just go to Pinnacle and look at the lines, then I play anything with juice higher that -110 (at -105) or buy points depending on what would maximize my edge. I use the calculator to determine what my edge is. It's really not that complicated, it's like someone offering to sell you $1 bills for 94 cents, or 99 cents, or 92 cents, etc. You'r edge is not the same in all the bets but they all have an edge so when you bet so many games it all adds up.