MLB Modelers: Do you increase your September MLB action or lay off?

[mathdotcom]

With all the September callups and garbage games, do you increase your action due to more off lines, or avoid most games on the board?

How sharp are September lines on garbage games?

Do you trust the Pinnacle line to be sharp on garbage games when pricing derivatives?

- mathy

[PowerMovePicks]

Historically I have significantly decreased after the trade deadline when a lot of the current history is no longer relevant for some teams. Once the September callups and people fall out of the race I nearly lay off completely till the postseason. I will add, that I am probably much too conservative for most. This is just off my rather simple system though. I trust Pinnacle, but my methodology doesn't really translate to this time of year

[luegofuego]

even if pinny's line should be far from efficient, shouldn't it always be the best guess available, and therefore +EV to chase steam on, anyway?

[Odessa]

With all the September callups and garbage games, do you increase your action due to more off lines, or avoid most games on the board?

How sharp are September lines on garbage games?

Do you trust the Pinnacle line to be sharp on garbage games when pricing derivatives?

- mathy

Mathy, I'm impressed with your insight! Do you live in Toronto?

I can write a book discussing this questions. In nutshell, I double my action on MLB, and it includes both garbage games and pennant race games. And the main reason as you mention is Pinnacle pricing flactuations. I follow only few games, and if you see action like last night was on Cle-LAA and than late game SF-LAD. This is a tell!

[jgilmartin]

My action definitely decreases some; the call ups make it tougher to predict a starting lineup (for the purpose of betting early lines) when a manager is doing a lot of tweaking in the month of September. If I feel like I can't make a decent guess of what team a manager will field, I pass, as my model's fair line probably isn't any good.

[mathdotcom]

Pinny line might still be the best guess, but:

a) the guess might not be as good as it is halfway through the season because liquidity is down
b) risk has increased

The model depends on variables (such as players), but there is limited data on some of these variables. Hence estimates have larger standard errors, which means more risk.

[PowerMovePicks]

I agree with point (a) 100% and that is what deters me.

[luegofuego]

still, if the EV on your steam chase fluctuates wildly around the true line, it should only affect variance and not EV. i chase steam when i know pinny is clueless all the time, because everyone is even more clueless.

[Sawyer]

My baseball action is reduced in september. Many games are coin flip in this month..but you can find very nice underdog opportunities..

[MonkeyF0cker]

Pinny line might still be the best guess, but:

a) the guess might not be as good as it is halfway through the season because liquidity is down
b) risk has increased

The model depends on variables (such as players), but there is limited data on some of these variables. Hence estimates have larger standard errors, which means more risk.

It's no less limited than pitchers/players rehabbing or called up throughout the season. There are ways, Danielson.

[mathdotcom]

I assume you don't buy into any of the "motivational" factors?

[MonkeyF0cker]

I assume you don't buy into any of the "motivational" factors?

Not really. I think players have other incentives to concern themselves with (i.e. free agency, performance bonuses, roster positions, etc.). You could honestly call many games that teams like the Pirates played since May garbage games. There are plenty of teams that have never been close to contending for the post season. I don't see teams laying down. I think their mentality becomes about trying to improve for next season.

[mathdotcom]

Monkey word on the street is you play for the 51s. Is this true??

[Waz]

Unless you are doing this full-time, I would drastically cut down your bet size in September or consider stopping until the playoffs altogether. There are so many factors to consider (most of which have been mentioned already) that it takes MUCH longer capping the games. If you still insist on playing and don't have as much time to invest, I would just focus on the games where both teams are vying for a playoff spot.

[Inspirited]

I've learned too late that this month is brutal for favorites, or at least I can't pick them for anything anymore. Underdogs is a different story, but too late for me...