Just curious if it is profitable to sell points on sports totals that are high such as football and especially basketball long term to get much better +odds.. If not, which I assume, why?
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Depends on your long term edge (measured in action points). Hard to find books that offer this.Comment -
Not sure if this will help but in the NBA it looks like both the mean error and standard deviation are higher as the total gets higher._I would think that this means that each half point is worth less with the higher totals possibly making it profitable to sell points.
Total_______<=191___191.5=<___210=<
Count________3152_____3136_____401
Mean Error 13.48937_14.22433_15.45885
St Dev____10.56983_11.16109_13.47401Comment -
If you gain an edge by doing so than it can be profitable, if you do not know how to estimate your edge accurately and you are just blindly selling points than I can guarantee that it will not be profitable.Comment -
I'd think it'd be profitable in basketball, depending on what a book gives you for a half point.
Of course, none of the books I use allow this. They're eager to sell points themselves for ten cents a pop. Rip off.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
It's profitable if you have a better idea of what the half point is worth than the book does.
One would expect that book's software would pay you less for half a point as the total got higher and pay you more as the total got lower. That said, if books were all operating efficiently we wouldn't be here.Comment -
It's not profitable over the long run because you can't calculate the exact value of that half point, and the books won't be giving you the full value that its worth, so you'll be losing money.Comment
