I believe these kinds of bets are called straddles but correct me if I'm wrong. Anyway, I have what will probably be a simple question for many of you. My math is not very good, although I'm trying to learn, so I'd be grateful if you could help me out. I'll use the actual example that's on my mind in this case:
There is an upcoming UFC fight between Matt Hughes and Ricardo Almeida. I believe that if Hughes wins, it will most likely be by decision, and if Almeida wins it will most likely be inside the distance (and by submission). I was looking at the following two props on 5dimes:
Hughes wins by 3 round decision: +243
Almeida wins inside the distance: +245 (they are not offering an Almeida by submission prop)
Obviously if I play both and one of them hits, I will profit. Assuming I put one unit on each, I stand to profit at least 1.43 units. However, if neither hits, I will lose 2 units. So my question is, what percentage of the time would Hughes by decision or Almeida by stoppage have to hit in order to make it +EV to bet both?
Finally, once I know the EV of betting both, let's say I want to compare it to betting just one. Suppose that I think that if one of those two propositions hits, there is a 55% chance it will be Hughes by decision and a 45% chance it will be Almeida inside the distance. How can I calculate, then, whether only betting Hughes by decision is more profitable than the straddle?
Hope this makes sense. Thanks in advance for any help.
There is an upcoming UFC fight between Matt Hughes and Ricardo Almeida. I believe that if Hughes wins, it will most likely be by decision, and if Almeida wins it will most likely be inside the distance (and by submission). I was looking at the following two props on 5dimes:
Hughes wins by 3 round decision: +243
Almeida wins inside the distance: +245 (they are not offering an Almeida by submission prop)
Obviously if I play both and one of them hits, I will profit. Assuming I put one unit on each, I stand to profit at least 1.43 units. However, if neither hits, I will lose 2 units. So my question is, what percentage of the time would Hughes by decision or Almeida by stoppage have to hit in order to make it +EV to bet both?
Finally, once I know the EV of betting both, let's say I want to compare it to betting just one. Suppose that I think that if one of those two propositions hits, there is a 55% chance it will be Hughes by decision and a 45% chance it will be Almeida inside the distance. How can I calculate, then, whether only betting Hughes by decision is more profitable than the straddle?
Hope this makes sense. Thanks in advance for any help.
