What are HALFS worth on RUNS-HITS-ERROR props?

[Fishhead]

Thanks in advance

Obviously a little more the lower the line

Anyone with any data or theories on this would be greatly appreciated.

[mathdotcom]

Not worth that much. At -115, you usually need the line to be at least 1.5 points off for the bet to be +EV (so a ballpark figure is maybe 6-7 cents). I've been pounding the Over 22.5's at jazette books for games leaning on the over at a total of 7.

[Fishhead]

Not worth that much. At -115, you usually need the line to be at least 1.5 points off for the bet to be +EV (so a ballpark figure is maybe 6-7 cents). I've been pounding the Over 22.5's at jazette books for games leaning on the over at a total of 7.

OV 29.0 -115
UN 30.5 -110

Not a win longterm, correct?

[durito]

Try and do some work yourself for a change.

[Fishhead]

Give me the answer Durito

How many cents is half worth on a line between 28 and 30?

[mathdotcom]

So the total on the Brewers game is 9.5, and the RHE at CRIS currently at 29.5 -115.

Unfortunately my database is in a mess right now, so can only tell you about 104 games this year that had a total of 9.5.

56.7% went over 26.5
53.8% went over 27.5
51.9% went over 28.5
47.1% went over 29.5

2.88% landed on 27
1.92% landed on 28
4.80% landed on 29
0% landed on 30
5.77% landed on 31

Since the database is small these numbers aren't very precise estimates of half point values. But, this data suggests getting a half point off 29 is worth about 10 cents. If you take the average of those %'s, to get a figure of 3.074%, this suggests the half point is worth about 6 cents.

[Fishhead]

So can we say that with a total of 29.5 or less, that a half point is worth about 8 cents????

[mathdotcom]

That's a reasonable ballpark figure. If you look at historical RHEs you will quickly see that there is a lot of variance, ie. if the RHEs are wild and are really spread out, then the value of the half point is low because the probability of landing exactly on a specific number is low. This is in contrast to totals where games with a total of 7 land on that number about 15% of the time, which is why the half point off 7 is worth ~ 31cents.

[chaka]

thanks math learned something new to watch for and track

[Fishhead]

RED SOX r/h/e landed on the number this evening..........(I was thrilled).


Thanks for the opinions Matty

[PRC]

I love it when mathdotcom is helpful and not being an arrogant ass. one of the best guys here.

[Dr.Gonzo]

I love it when mathdotcom is helpful and not being an arrogant ass. one of the best guys here.

If by being an arrogant ass you mean making 9-5 stiffs question their existence you are correct.

He is doing you all a big favor here. If you are miserable why not face reality and try to do something about it? A shrink would be charging you $200 an hour.

[mathdotcom]

FH

I realize you're in a lot of different books, but it is rare for me to see a 2 point difference on RHEs between some of my usual books: CRIS, BetOnline, Jazette, Greek, SBG. I wouldn't even consider middling unless I had at least a 2 point difference, and it's possible one of the sides is at -120 or -125 because they realize their number is a bit off-market (Greek deals these types of lines, though BetOnline is always -115/-115, and I believe SBG and CRIS usually are too). What you need FH is a database to tell you which of the two lines is off and then just bet the better number, and not pay the extra juice trying to hit the middle.

On another note, I am not convinced that the games with low totals will have significantly less variance than high total games in the RHE outcome because a lower total increases the chance of extra innings. While the total itself should consider the probability of extra innings, it probably does not adjust a lot because given you're in extra innings you expect just one more run to be scored. But the game can easily go several innings past the 9th and this can lead to many more hits despite only one more run being scored. This is exactly what happened in the Cubs game last night, at a total of 6.5.

So my point is, while I'd prefer a middle of Over 22/Under 24 to a middle of Over 28/Under 30, I wouldn't be that excited about the difference.

[Fishhead]

Thanks again Matty