Football free half points - value depending on day of the week?

**durito** · 07-19-10, 11:16 AM

You would be wrong.

**Reload** · 07-19-10, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by durito

You would be wrong.

Wrong in that it's the same value all week or wrong that a half-point on gameday is worth more than the rest of the week? Any way to price this numerically? That's what I am looking for.

**Reload** · 07-19-10, 12:47 PM

A few other points on this:

- Come gameday, I feel you can generally line shop for an extra half point on non-key numbers anyway. Sides and totals. Getting a free half-point might prevent me from putting $500 on the game at another shop, but a half-point difference should be out there somewhere - especially at a recreational-limit book.

- On totals, I'd rather bet something like an "Under 42" earlier in the week knowing it will going down. If I get a free half-point then, I could be sitting at 42 1/2 but on gameday, the total by then drops to 40 and value is gone even with the free-half point. Sure you might still "beat the closing line" by a half-point, but you could have beaten it by more earlier. Same thing applies to sides although they might move less quick than totals.

**durito** · 07-19-10, 04:24 PM

can you not post in here?

**Reload** · 07-19-10, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by durito

can you not post in here?

**mathdotcom** · 07-19-10, 09:59 PM

durito be nice

**Reload** · 07-19-10, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

durito be nice

This is nice for him. Wait until the season starts.

**Justin7** · 07-20-10, 01:08 AM

If you are a good handicapper, the half-point is more valuable earlier in the week, because it compounds with your handicapping advantage. If you aren't a good handicapper, it is better later in the week.

Consider an NFL game opening at +3 which closes at +4. You're a good handicapper, and believe it will close higher than +3. You bet the fave at -2.5, versus the closer of +/-4.

If you are not a good handicapper, the 1/2 point is always good on game day. Betting it earlier though tends to move your win/loss rate towards 50/50. Any unpredictable movement in a game will move a player's win/loss record towards 50%. This will diminish your free half-point more if you used it early in the week, than later in the week against a painted line.

**Data** · 07-20-10, 01:38 AM

Originally posted by Reload

This week, there was a thread in Players Talk here on free football half points offered by WagerChief asking what day of the week would be best for it:

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbooks-industry/572901-wagerchief-free-half-point-promo.html?slf=2

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

The consensus so far is wanting them on the Sundays (the day of the game). So it's made me wonder, does a free half point earlier in the week have more theoretical value than one offered on the day of the game?

I have not read that thread but their conclusion is correct. To illustrate, let's make it a few points instead. Imagine the Bell curve representing the game outcomes. The lines on Sunday are going to be closer to apex. If you can increase you edge by grabbing a few points closer to apex you will be increasing it more comparing to grabbing points anywhere else because push probabilities for those points are higher. So, since the lines are getting sharper, the closer to game time the closer the lines will point you to the most valuable (half)points to grab.

**Reload** · 07-20-10, 07:47 AM

Thanks guys - some good feedback there!

**Fishhead** · 07-20-10, 09:43 AM

The worst day on average for free half point is on thursdays.................