Okay so I've tracked a certain sports service for the past 3 years in MLB and they truly do win. I have even been subscribing this year and I always got better lines than them, but I was also betting reduced juice. But if I were to bet normal lines I would pretty much get exactly the same lines as them(baseball...remember). They bet 1-4 units so there's no funny business going on there. But when I track their plays against closing lines they get crushed. Not only do they almost never beat the no vig closer, but they more often then not go in the opposite direction. MY QUESTION IS "HOW DO THEY WIN GIVEN THAT THIS IS TRUE?"
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there's more than one way to beat the market. Not beating the closing line consistently does not automatically mean you're not winning; merely that you aren't getting the best possible lines.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
How many games have they bet over this time span?Comment -
If the picture you paint is accurate, I wouldn't trust it. Either you exaggerate by saying they almost never beat the closing line, which is something a coin-flipping monkey could still do 50% of the time, or the numbers are skewed. Just my opinion.Comment -
beating the closing line does not predict a winner, the closer is just considered to represent the most accurate win probability per side. Just because a side only has a 30% chance of winning does not mean they will not win. Win probabilities will not show any significance until there is a large sample to test them against so it is possible for somebody to have a winning record without ever beating the closer, but is more likely to not.
Also you mention that they bet 1-4 units per play which would require you to compare bet sizes in 4 categories against the closer since they may be beating a lot of closers on 4 unit bets and not so many on 1 unit bets.
Or like most touts they may just be running hot.Comment -
They bet over 300 games per season and the average line they bet is -107 and they win 58%. It's a significant sample considering it's 3 years that I looked at. Plus they've won for many years prior to that.Comment -
When you did your testing, did you calculate the percentage of the time they beat the closing line, and/or the number of cents on average the line moved for or against their pick? Would just be curious to see.Comment -
Let's first talk about what beating the closing line means. Beating the closing line means that you're getting a better number than what the marketplace thinks the line is. And the market place is usually correct by the game time after all bets have been placed, as money talks. However, the fact is, the marketplace is not right all of the time. Let's say, for instance, that the marketplace is right 90% of the time, which is probably higher than what it is in actuality. So that leaves at least 10% of the games that the marketplace is wrong on what the closing line is. Thus, if you are betting most of your games within the 10% of the games where the closing line is not accurate, you can ultimately still win by not beating the closing line if it's not what the theoretical line actually is.
Now, that's not to say that trying to make a living betting the 10% of games where the closing line may not be accurate is the way to go. It's not always easy identifying those games and it's also very difficult to identify the right side in those games. Games where the closing line is not accurate generally consistent of additional variables that other games don't always have (ie. the revenge factor or an injury, etc.). As a result, they are harder to evaluate and lead to a strong difference of opinion on the true line. However, I do believe that there are a certain percentage of bettors who can weed through those variables and properly identify the right side. And this can explain why the service is winning irrespective of where the closing line is.Comment -
good luckComment -
The closing line represents the cumulative opinion of the market, but despite what some old school economists will tell you, the opinion of the market doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot. To give a sports betting relevant example, lots of times fan money on a popular team comes in late, moving the line shortly before game time. If a capper is finding value from fading overvalued popular teams, they could very well beat the opening line, but still be able to get an even more favorable line if they waited until fan money had bet.Comment -
Coming from betting the greyhounds for 30 years, I was always looking to find value, wheather a favorite who I thoght should be a bigger favorite or a 10-1 shot who I thought COULD win and thought the odds were higher than they should be. The favorite in a dog or horse race always looks like the one who should win but you have to always look at the others who could win if the favorite doesn't.
Sports betting is pretty similar. The favorite in a contest usually looks like the winner but the bettor has to decide if the odds on the favorite should be more than listed(play on the favorite) or if they are overpriced and the odds on the dog are worth a play because the underdog COULD win.
It's all about value. I used to be a line shopper and betting at a slow moving book figuring I would automatically win because I was getting a good price but that didn't mean I had the RIGHT SIDE. So sportsbetting is similar to racetrack capping, look at the lines and trying to find the ones who offer value.Comment -
Thanks, John! That's kind of you.
It means taking the closing line and removing the vig from it to reflect a single "true line". If you want to know how to compute no vig lines, here's a handy thread:
[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
ok, thanks. also got this from the other thread:
"Quickest way- use the arb calculator bet #1 enter $100
line# 1 enter underdog line
line# 2 enter favotite
bet 2 will give you the no vig line "
so in other words a -110 pick-em game has a no-vig line of +100. ok, that's kind of obvious. but betting the closing line i can't get +100 so how do i use this info to make money? since for the most part, you can't bet into a "no-vig-line," how is it useful?Comment -
You can beat the no vig line if you play at a sportsbook that is slow moving their lines when they change at Pinny. When the line changes at Pinny use the arb calc to figure the no vig line and then play the game if the line hasn't changed at your sportsbook yet.
There are people who swear that you will make money longterm with this strategy and they are probably right but I have tried this with bases this year(very short term so take this with a grain of salt) and haven't much luck.
My personal opinion is this type of approach works great if the sport you bet on has key numbers as in football where if you can bet -2 1/2 or +3 1/2 when the line moves off the 3.Comment -
Omg, btcl, diagf.Comment -
Ok, just kidding. Look, BTCL is an obsession for grinders. You understand? Guys who aren't handicapping, they're just betting numbers. Steam chasing, mostly. And for them BTCL is the fair measure. And books worry about it, too, because players who BTCL are often syndicate boys or steam chasers piling on, and that's problematic for them.
But if you aren't a grinder, you should instead be studying when to bet. For example I know I need to bet CFB and CBB totals very early. That means that, yes, I BTCL. But that's coincidental, not causal. I don't care what the market does after I'm done betting. And I personally have no problem fading the market in many circumstances. Sometimes the market is retarded.Comment -
I was about to give them to someone else but pokerjoe swooped in with the best answer IMO. Thank you all.Comment
