Does anyone have any personal rules that they abide by when making wagers? Such as amount, types, certain teams they hate to bet on or against. Lets hear it.
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ahh i was hoping u did...
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bet when you are expecting the outcome to be worth more than the price that's being offeredComment -
I would think mine are more superstitions versus rules. When I hear someone use the world "lock" I stay awayComment -
I try to not vary my bet size too much because it's very difficult to calculate your exact edge in any given game unless you have a very strong model and years of supportable data. Don't let superstitions or your favorite teams get in the way of making some $$$. If anything, you should be more willing to bet on teams that you follow because you should have a better pulse on them day to day.Comment -
Never bet for or against your favorite teams. Leave your emotions out of it...Comment -
stick to my unit and focus on slow and steadyComment -
Always bet 1 unit on every bet. Never more or less, all of my bets are equal. Just my personal preference.
Never bet odds that are worse than -140. Again, just my personal preference. Obviously takes longer to win back your losses if you bet things that have a whole lot of juice, therefore, I gave myself a limit of no odds worse than -140.Comment -
wager at a place where you will get paidComment -
Value Is All That Matters
With all due respect, I think you're missing out on many great value plays with that rule.
Absolutely nothing wrong with laying -1.41 as long as you have a better than 58.51% chance of winning it.
It's critical not to confuse "high" prices with "whole lot of juice." No matter the price, it's all about expected value whether that price is + or - the ev.
The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.Comment -
One good rule I think is to not have any hard set rules. You always need to be open to change. You'll have to be adaptive to make it in this world.
For example, you might think flat betting is the best option now, because it's at least a decent method of money management. But you need to be open to other options, that way when you discover Kelly in a few months, you won't reject it.
Another example. In general, it's probably a bad idea to bet on a -200 line. But, if you knew for a fact that you had a 90% chance of winning such a game, it really would be silly to not play it just because of a rule.Comment -
Only one rule: +EV plays onlyComment -
I understand what you are saying, it's just my own personal preference though.
Of course you can be profitable betting -200 lines if you are betting outcomes that are +EV. I just don't like doing it personally, its a decision based on my betting mentality rather than mathematics. Fair play to anyone who bets differently.
In Baseball if I see a line that is -150 then I will wait to bet it in-play. If the team at -150 scores no runs during their half inning then the price immediately gets better for them so if I saw it at -138 after a scoreless half inning then I would bet the line at this moment instead of betting before the game. This can create a lot of +EV situations when the scores are still level or when a really good team is only losing by 1 run after a few innings. I think this is a good tip for betting baseball. Of course it doesn't work every game, for example the Dodgers were up 3-0 after the very first inning against the Cubs yesterday. However, on the same day I was able to get Tamba Bay at -105 when they were losing 3-2 to Cleveland. This was after Tampa started the game as a larger than -200 favourite (if I recall the closing line correctly).Comment -
sorry guys, whats +EV. im new to sports gambling. i usually just go with my gutComment -
I don't think that there's any fundamental disagreement between us. Although to me your rule is constraining, I can respect the personal preference. As long as their math is solid, it's good for any capper to stay within their personal psychological and financial comfort zone in terms of risk tolerance, variance, etc.
In fact, there might even be some edge in your consistenly analyzing matchups that are all within a limited range of price and expectation. Looking at only those situations (-1.40 or <) all the time, you might develop a special feel for it. For me, however, I find a significant value in some of the higher priced favorites and the cost of the inevitable upset is something I can handle and have proven I can overcome. You have to be selective but, contrary to the opinions of some, the higher prices are not all sucker bets.
I also think your in-play approach to the heavier chalks is a good one. No question you can find some inefficiencies to exploit there. Unfortunately, many winning clubs do get away from you right out of the gate as in your Dodgers example.
Good Luck in the 2nd half.Comment -
I know that some posters are not going to like this exchange because this is supposed to be a thread for handicappers - but here goes:
EV simply simply stands for Expected Valuation. It is a measure of value in taking or laying a given price on a given proposition vs the actual mathematical expectation of a given outcome.
In the short term, anything can happen. But in the long term, making positive, +EV, wagers yields a profit and making negative EV wagers loses money. The job of the handicapper is to determine which prices are which.
No matter how much a good handicapper likes a side, there is a price at which he will not take it. There is also a price at which he will actually take the other side.Comment -
is there a way to calculate this +EV?Comment -
That's where it gets dicey. It's very easy to calculate, but an accurate calculation requires that you know your exact winning percentage.
That being said, you can still calculate your estimated EV very easily.
(Amount of time you expect to win the bet TIMES return if you win) - Amount of time you expect to lose the bet TIMES amount risked)
So, if you risk $100 on a -110 line, and you expect to win 55% of the time.
.55(100/110) - (1 - .55)1 = .55(.91) - .45 = 0.0505
so, for every dollar you bet, you expect to earn a bit over 5 cents.Comment -
Get a smartphone and cruise this board and 2p2 all day during work. Worked for me so far.
As for actual discussion, the "+ev wagers only" I actually agree with thremp. There's plenty of times when I make a -ev wager on purpose. A specific example is if I see a real bad line but its a big underdog, ill bet max on it and sell some back on the favorite. For instance I saw +250 on an onernight line on the o's a few nights ago where market value was +220ish. I bet the max (1000). Since I didn't really want to have such a big bet (for me) on a large underdog, I bought up some texas at -230. I didn't do a full hedge though, I think I bet 1k total. So I basically bet like 555 to win 1500 giving me even better odds (+265ish I dunno I'm at work)
So yes, the texas bet was -ev, but overall its a good strategy. The hard part is moving money around.
And also sometimes I bet small on a game I'm gonna watch instead of my usual props so my bookie doesn't wisen up.Comment -
But u have to win the bet to win that 5cents for every dollar u bet thing right? And is 5cents a good +EV?Comment -
But u have to win the bet to win that 5cents for every dollar u bet thing right? And is 5cents a good +EV? And wow looks I have a lot to learn about gambling to even attempt at being successful. Anywhere I can go to learn some things?Comment -
Couple of things I would tell a novice:
Money Management is key
I use a standard Bet Size: 1% of bankroll. So if you got $1000 each play is $10
Never directly link any credit card or bank account to you online book/ casino
Keep track of your bets in excel or SBR spreadsheet if you can't do excel
Learn some Math, read some books and poke around this think-tankComment -
Never bet your eating money.Comment -
No. You will never have a result that yields you 5 cents. You will either win 91 cents or lost 1 dollar. However, if you make the same bet infinite times, you EXPECT that your average return will be +5 cents.
Any +EV is good +EV. You can use the Kelly Calculator to tell you how much to bet based on your confidence level.Comment -
Simple put with the -110 line bet: You risk 110 to get back 210, to calculate what % to beat for a profit longterm:
(Risk Money) / (Amount returned) = break even = 110/210 = 52,38%
A Dog at +140 is 100/240 = 41.67%Comment -
RubberKettle, i have an account on 5 dimes but havent put money in it yet. should i use ** to deposit money?Comment -
Money Management is the biggest key to winning. Never ever chase when losing, I know people who double, and triple bets to make up for loses, never do it, unless you cannot help it. This is what I do, evaluate the game, match ups injuries, weather (outdoors only lol) and then give the game a line, then check what actual line is, if you are on the money or close take the side you like, if the other side is a bigger fav then what you evaluate it as, place more money on your side, never let the so called "line is telling me something game" you will talk yourself out of making a lot of money when you walk away or choose the other side because you think someone knows something. GOOD LUCKComment -
Chase strategy actually has its place in gambling -but a chase has to be well thought out in advance - well controlled - and limited.
It's OK step your bet up in a series, let's say, if your analysis is that a team will not be swept. That is if you have decided the stake for each game ahead of time and you know you can live with the worst case scenario. But it has to stop there.
The big thing in gambling is to always be prepared for any outcome, know what your next move will be ahead of time - and never make the bet you have to win. The problem with chasing stems from making emotional decisions in real time.
GL to all.Comment -
Chasing is for donkeys. If you're chasing (even in a limited way), you probably don't understand the basics of conditional probability.
Before a series begins, my analysis may indicate that the odds are very good (X) that Team A won't get swept. But if they lose the first game, my estimate of X MUST CHANGE (it has to go down). Chasers don't understand that -- they think X is fixed and therefore implicitly assume that, since Team A in fact lost the first game, they must now have a better chance than before of winning the next game. That's WRONG, plain and simple.
In the long run (which is all that matters), chasing is a poor strategy.Comment -
Here is a Rule To Live By:
If your in a public bathroom, and there is an open urinal, you piss in it. I f'n hate when people piss in the stall and then, if I actually have to take a sh*t, I have to wipe their piss off the seat.
What, are you scared someone will see your d*ck? Just piss in the damn urinal.Comment
