Regression To The Mean

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • FreeFall
    SBR MVP
    • 02-20-08
    • 3365

    #1
    Regression To The Mean
    This is a creative idea I had the other day and was curious what you guys thought. Say I tracked a bunch of diff random variables. Like all NBA tots, Soccer tots, and MLB tots (notice these are all "50/50" lines). Then say we make bets only when they are 0-9. Is this a foolish idea? Is there any advantage to betting on something only because it is far from the mean?
  • bztips
    SBR Sharp
    • 06-03-10
    • 283

    #2
    Yes, a very foolish idea.
    They're independent events, the point total in a given NBA game has nothing to do with what the point total in a prior NBA game was (there's no "memory", just like we always say to those who think they should bet a certain lottery number because it's "due").
    Comment
    • FreeFall
      SBR MVP
      • 02-20-08
      • 3365

      #3
      Originally posted by bztips
      Yes, a very foolish idea.
      They're independent events, the point total in a given NBA game has nothing to do with what the point total in a prior NBA game was (there's no "memory", just like we always say to those who think they should bet a certain lottery number because it's "due").
      I'm not disagreeing with you, but not agreeing either. Say for example you found a edge of 2% over 1000 games. you are 0-990. That means there is no reason to bet more on the last ten games of the set? I think I'm miss some underlying concepts.
      Comment
      • bztips
        SBR Sharp
        • 06-03-10
        • 283

        #4
        Well, first of all I'd seriously reconsider if my .02 EV was really any good if it just lost 990 times in a row. But ignoring that, YES there is no reason to bet more on the last ten games just because you've gone through a losing streak. Now there may be OTHER reasons to change your bet size (a la Kelly), but they have nothing to do with the question that you asked.
        Comment
        • Hybris
          SBR MVP
          • 07-22-09
          • 1023

          #5
          Comment
          • Wrecktangle
            SBR MVP
            • 03-01-09
            • 1524

            #6
            Take an infinite amount of monkeys typing on an infinite amount of typewriters, sooner or later a monkey will write Hamlet. Somewhat like going 0-9, or 9-0.

            Now, would you want to hire that monkey to write Romeo and Juliet for you?
            Comment
            SBR Contests
            Collapse
            Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
            Collapse
            Working...