Lines from "inferior" books

[Grind-It-Out]

A few months ago I read about a strategy to bet any team where the lines for that team were better at the "square" books (Bodog, SIA, BookMaker, etc) than at Pinnacle.

Example: Pinny has Mets U7 +108. Bodog has it U7 +110 and BM has it U7.5 -125. The play would be the Under since the square books have more favorable numbers (this thread is not meant to debate whether U7.5 -125 or U7 +108 is better).

I doubt strictly playing these games would be +EV, but maybe it would make a good filter.

Does anybody have any numbers related to this strategy?

[sharpcat]

I would recommend focusing on beating the no-vig line.

[Grind-It-Out]

I would recommend focusing on beating the no-vig line.

My question isn't about whether you can make a small profit by getting better lines than Pinny, it's about whether those better lines are an indication of a better side.

[thebayareabeast]

I would pay the juice and focus on getting the extra half-run

[Grind-It-Out]

I would pay the juice and focus on getting the extra half-run

That has absolutely nothing to do with the question. Thanks.

[bztips]

Might possibly make sense if you see large differences (to me, a "large" difference might be 5 cents or more). But AFAIC the 2 cent difference in your example is just chum that comes out in the wash.

I know, I know, people are going to pound me now, claiming that 2 cents can make all the difference in the world between winning and losing -- that may be true, but is irrelevant to the question of whether observed 2-cent differences are meaningful for making picks.

[sharpcat]

My question isn't about whether you can make a small profit by getting better lines than Pinny, it's about whether those better lines are an indication of a better side.

It does not represent a better side pinnacle is offering a .10 cent line whereas other books are offering a .20 cent line, therefore the books with the .20 cent line have a much larger profit margin in which they can move the vig any direction they want. The example you gave +110 is not beating the no-vig line, and you are only reducing the juice that you are paying but are still in a -EV situation.

The point of getting a better number than pinnacle is to beat the no-vig line so that you are taking away the edge that the book has and hopefully giving yourself an edge. It is also important to know if pinnacle recently moved the line which could be the reason you are getting a better number, the important thing would be to beat their closing no-vig number.

[Grind-It-Out]

It does not represent a better side pinnacle is offering a .10 cent line whereas other books are offering a .20 cent line, therefore the books with the .20 cent line have a much larger profit margin in which they can move the vig any direction they want. The example you gave +110 is not beating the no-vig line, and you are only reducing the juice that you are paying but are still in a -EV situation.

The point of getting a better number than pinnacle is to beat the no-vig line so that you are taking away the edge that the book has and hopefully giving yourself an edge. It is also important to know if pinnacle recently moved the line which could be the reason you are getting a better number, the important thing would be to beat their closing no-vig number.

You are misinterpreting my question.

The point of getting a better number than pinnacle, in my question, is NOT to beat the no-vig line, but rather to see if these situations have a winning record (in terms of profit not percentage) in the long run.

To make it more clear, I should note that this question is akin to asking what the UNDER hit rate is when games have a total of 6, for example.

[Grind-It-Out]

Might possibly make sense if you see large differences (to me, a "large" difference might be 5 cents or more). But AFAIC the 2 cent difference in your example is just chum that comes out in the wash.

I know, I know, people are going to pound me now, claiming that 2 cents can make all the difference in the world between winning and losing -- that may be true, but is irrelevant to the question of whether observed 2-cent differences are meaningful for making picks.

The question stems from the fact that Pinny will almost always beat the "square" books by 5 cents or more. So when the square books beat Pinny, even by 1 cent, it raises the question "Why?"

It would make sense, though, that 5 cents would be a lot better than 2 cents.

[goblue12]

Does anybody have any numbers related to this strategy?

When a book has a better number than Matchbook's .01 hockey line (Tracked Start Oct 09 - End Nov 09)

Not my data found in another forum

Book W L Profit % # % of plays % of profit
SIA 69 44 $ 3,445 61% 113 21% 30%
Wager Street 62 55 $ 1,513 53% 117 21% 13%
WSEX 26 12 $ 1,315 68% 38 7% 12%
Bodog 17 9 $ 1,090 65% 26 5% 10%
BetOnline 26 22 $ 955 54% 48 9% 8%
BetUS 11 4 $ 765 73% 15 3% 7%
Pinnacle 13 8 $ 715 62% 21 4% 6%
Sportbet 8 2 $ 635 80% 10 2% 6%
Bet365 8 5 $ 470 62% 13 2% 4%
Bookmaker 6 3 $ 395 67% 9 2% 3%
Intertops 4 1 $ 316 80% 5 1% 3%
BetPhoenix 13 10 $ 251 57% 23 4% 2%
RebateWager 14 11 $ 135 56% 25 5% 1%
5Dimes 5 6 $ 119 45% 11 2% 1%
Canbet 2 1 $ 37 67% 3 1% 0%
Legends 2 3 $ 15 40% 5 1% 0%
BetJamaica 5 5 $ 8 50% 10 2% 0%
Justbet 1 1 $ (65) 50% 2 0% -1%
ABC Islands 10 11 $ (85) 48% 21 4% -1%
The Greek 10 9 $ (95) 53% 19 3% -1%
Diamond 5 9 $ (530) 36% 14 3% -5%

Total 317-231 +$11,404 58% 548

[Grind-It-Out]

Very interesting goblue. Thanks!

[sharpcat]

When a book has a better number than Matchbook's .01 hockey line (Tracked Start Oct 09 - End Nov 09)

It is important to know whether this person took into consideration that matchbooks .01 cent lines are not truly .01 cent lines due to commissions add roughly .02 cents to each side of the line. If they did not than they wasted a lot of time pulling that data.

[Grind-It-Out]

It is important to know whether this person took into consideration that matchbooks .01 cent lines are not truly .01 cent lines due to commissions add roughly .02 cents to each side of the line. If they did not than they wasted a lot of time pulling that data.

So you're saying that "Total 317-231 +$11,404 58% 548" is a waste of time?

[betbetter]

The question stems from the fact that Pinny will almost always beat the "square" books by 5 cents or more. So when the square books beat Pinny, even by 1 cent, it raises the question "Why?"

Sharp money has balanced the book for them.

[sharpcat]

You are misinterpreting my question.

The point of getting a better number than pinnacle, in my question, is NOT to beat the no-vig line, but rather to see if these situations have a winning record (in terms of profit not percentage) in the long run.

To make it more clear, I should note that this question is akin to asking what the UNDER hit rate is when games have a total of 6, for example.

I do understand what you are asking here but my point is that a book with a .20 cent line can very easily let an off number hang as long as it is higher than the no-vig line because juice is what feeds the books. It could be possible that the book is taking a side on a game due to sharp action or it could be that the linesman is sleeping behind the wheel. I have no data to confirm this but my lean would be to say if you are paying juice and not taking any factors involving the teams playing into consideration that you are playing a 50/50 game and the house still has the edge and the juice will eat you up long term whether it is 2% or 10% only will decide how long it takes before you go bankrupt.

If you are interested in testing this I would suggest you start building a database tracking line moves and final scores across several books and see if you can find a correlation.

[sharpcat]

So you're saying that "Total 317-231 +$11,404 58% 548" is a waste of time?

very likely

If the person in question went off of books beating a line of -105/+104 than yes they wasted their time because after commission this line would be more like -107/+102 which is not a .01 cent line. If this was the case than many of his games in the database likely would not have beat matchbooks true line and therefore would have resulted in a biased sample used to construct his database.

[Johnny 55]

If you follow a simple off-market chart with Pinny as the baseline you could do quite well betting the only off-market prices at patheticly run books, most people probably just slant arbs to them or just straight up bet them, depending on if you are rolling over a bonus. I would say 5-7 cents for baseball and somewhere between a half point and a point for football and basketball, depending on the key numbers.

[bztips]

ok, now I think I finally understand what you're saying. I would tend to agree with sharp, though, that the square books can play with their vig on either side of a bet, so them having a better line than Pinny could be due to that instead of a true indicator of betting sentiment.

[durito]

Ah, bookmaker is not square.

[Tomato]

very likely

If the person in question went off of books beating a line of -105/+104 than yes they wasted their time because after commission this line would be more like -107/+102 which is not a .01 cent line. If this was the case than many of his games in the database likely would not have beat matchbooks true line and therefore would have resulted in a biased sample used to construct his database.

Guy posts the golden goose in terms of beatable books and how one should bet and you call it a waste of time.

Might be the dumbest thing Tomato has read in the forum. At least when BigDaddyQH posts idiotic advice he's hilarious.

[Hybris]

hybris agrees with tomato

[Wrecktangle]

Tomato, I agree with you. But you assume these guys read this stuff, and then take action on it.

[Grind-It-Out]

Guy posts the golden goose in terms of beatable books and how one should bet and you call it a waste of time.

Might be the dumbest thing Tomato has read in the forum. At least when BigDaddyQH posts idiotic advice he's hilarious.

Glad to see somebody understands!

[sharpcat]

Tomato not so good at reading I will attempt to help tomato catch up

A few months ago I read about a strategy to bet any team where the lines for that team were better at the "square" books (Bodog, SIA, BookMaker, etc) than at Pinnacle.

Example: Pinny has Mets U7 +108. Bodog has it U7 +110 and BM has it U7.5 -125. The play would be the Under since the square books have more favorable numbers (this thread is not meant to debate whether U7.5 -125 or U7 +108 is better).

I doubt strictly playing these games would be +EV, but maybe it would make a good filter.

Does anybody have any numbers related to this strategy?

I would recommend focusing on beating the no-vig line.

My question isn't about whether you can make a small profit by getting better lines than Pinny, it's about whether those better lines are an indication of a better side.

You are misinterpreting my question.

The point of getting a better number than pinnacle, in my question, is NOT to beat the no-vig line, but rather to see if these situations have a winning record (in terms of profit not percentage) in the long run.

To make it more clear, I should note that this question is akin to asking what the UNDER hit rate is when games have a total of 6, for example.

So tomato now sees that the OP has said that he is not talking about beating the no-vig line but is talking about betting on a lean

[sharpcat]

When a book has a better number than Matchbook's .01 hockey line (Tracked Start Oct 09 - End Nov 09)

Not my data found in another forum

Book W L Profit % # % of plays % of profit
SIA 69 44 $ 3,445 61% 113 21% 30%
Wager Street 62 55 $ 1,513 53% 117 21% 13%
WSEX 26 12 $ 1,315 68% 38 7% 12%
Bodog 17 9 $ 1,090 65% 26 5% 10%
BetOnline 26 22 $ 955 54% 48 9% 8%
BetUS 11 4 $ 765 73% 15 3% 7%
Pinnacle 13 8 $ 715 62% 21 4% 6%
Sportbet 8 2 $ 635 80% 10 2% 6%
Bet365 8 5 $ 470 62% 13 2% 4%
Bookmaker 6 3 $ 395 67% 9 2% 3%
Intertops 4 1 $ 316 80% 5 1% 3%
BetPhoenix 13 10 $ 251 57% 23 4% 2%
RebateWager 14 11 $ 135 56% 25 5% 1%
5Dimes 5 6 $ 119 45% 11 2% 1%
Canbet 2 1 $ 37 67% 3 1% 0%
Legends 2 3 $ 15 40% 5 1% 0%
BetJamaica 5 5 $ 8 50% 10 2% 0%
Justbet 1 1 $ (65) 50% 2 0% -1%
ABC Islands 10 11 $ (85) 48% 21 4% -1%
The Greek 10 9 $ (95) 53% 19 3% -1%
Diamond 5 9 $ (530) 36% 14 3% -5%

Total 317-231 +$11,404 58% 548

Tomato now should notice the part that says "not my data, found it in another forum" and that the data set does not mention at what point of time the sample was taken. This data also does not indicate whether it is taking favorites or dogs. Therefore as sharpcat stated this "DATA" is worthless!!!!!

As observed in post#2 of the thread sharpcat never once said that beating the no-vig closing number (comparable to matchbooks closing #) was not profitable, in fact he recommend that the OP focus on beating this number. He simply only stated that the data observed was no good.

[LT Profits]

LT likes tomatoes on his hamburgers, but sharpcat is right.

THAT SAID, even if there is slight drop-off in the results posted after tossing the games that should not be included, the results are still encouraging.

[Raleigh77]

Interesting thread, kind of the basis of sports insights supposed betting systems.

[mathdotcom]

Tomato's reading skills are renowned on the forum... not to mention his inability to tell time.

There are so few plays at some of those books as it is (4-1 at intertops??), not to mention how many would not have made the cut without commission factored in. There are quite a few bets in at Wagerstreet and SIA, but no one needs any stats to know that these books are as square as they come.

[wrongturn]

Don't understand why people argue the data is no good, or why some picks need to be dropped due to commission. The sample is small, but still interesting.

[Tomato]

LT likes tomatoes on his hamburgers, but sharpcat is right.

THAT SAID, even if there is slight drop-off in the results posted after tossing the games that should not be included, the results are still encouraging.

The Matchbook line is nothing more than the no vig line at Pinnacle. Do you people not get it?

The only people posting offers there are calculating their offers based on the EV off of Pinnacle's line. Anytime Pinnacle moves, bots at Matchbook eat up the +EV offers and bet the steam.

And how dare you cut my people up and eat them. Tomato should file suit against you.

[sharpcat]

Don't understand why people argue the data is no good, or why some picks need to be dropped due to commission. The sample is small, but still interesting.

-no indication of what the line was
-no indication of if it was a favorite or a dog
-no indication of how much the closing number was beaten by
-no indication of how heavy the favorite was or how heavy the dog was
-no indication of what point of time the lines were recorded (opener, midday, closing) or even if they were recorded at the same time
-no indication of whether or not commissions were included
-no idea of who did the study and what his/her statistical background is
-small sample size
-548 samples where a books closing number beats the no-vig line in one sport in 2 months for an $11,000 profit draws suspicion

Not saying that it is not interesting just saying that it is inconclusive with so many important factors not included it is a very biased sampling. As I suggested before if one was really interested they should take the time to build a complete database.

As I told the OP earlier if you are betting on a lean but not beating the closing no-vig line you are still making a -EV wager unless this lean truly indicates a winning side which I doubt is the case when comparing to books with .20 cent lines because they have so much room for error and do not have to move lines near as frequently or as accurately as a book like Pinnacle.

If the OP is referring to whether or not it is valuable to beat the no-vig closer, than the answer is yes and though not useable for drawing an accurate conclusion I would lean toward the data provided above as being somewhat accurate dependent on how much you beat the closer by.

[goblue12]

-no indication of what point of time the lines were recorded (opener, midday, closing) or even if they were recorded at the same time

Sorry, should have been clearer. The numbers he recorded were the no-vig closer at Matchbook.

The poster's name is letsgohoosiers at the RX.

[Hybris]

And how dare you cut my people up and eat them. Tomato should file suit against you.

[Pokerjoe]

I spent a month once betting all SIA CBB sides that were 1 pt or more off the Pinny sides. I got killed. IOW, SIA, for that month of CBB, was sharper than Pinny. Much.

Now, of course they weren't sharper, it was just a short term variance. But the point is that, imo, the Pinny lean is a myth. It probably is a bit more accurate, but not enough to cover the juice.

There is no holy grail.

[Pokerjoe]

And LOL at the idea of using someone random poster's data, and a small set at that.