[TPowell]

Figured I'd share how to know WITHIN 1 point of what the opening line will be. Here's how it's done

1. Look at common opponents and add up the differential in the spreads

Example: Team A was a 5 point fave against Team C and Team B was a 2 point dog against Team C. The net would be 7 points. Do this for every common opponent that the two teams have played. Add all of the differentials up and divide them to get the average. THIS IS YOUR BASE

2. Look at both teams ATS records on the year and if one team has perfomed better than the other, you should reward that team by moving the line another point for them

Example: Team A is 9-14 ATS on the year and Team B is 14-9 ATS on the year. The line you came up with was Team A -5.5. I would drop it at least 1 point for Team B. Your new line will be Team A -4.5.

3. Look hard at injury reports because they can be very deceiving in a sport like college basketball. I tend to stay away from any game when a player averaging over 4 points per game won't be playing, AS LONG as they havent been out for over 2-3 weeks.

Example 1: Team A player averaging 5 PPG goes down last week and is out/questionable to play tonight. Game is a wash, dont even try to cap it

Example 2: Team A player averaging 6 PPG went down last month and is out/questionable for the game tonight. Cap the game as normal.

4. Look at what happened in the last 10 matchups the two teams faced each other (mostly for conference play). Some coaches tend to have other coaches numbers for whatever reason. DO NOT make a play based on trends alone however. I would consider moving the line a half point either way if I liked the trends I saw.

Example: Team A is 7-3 ATS against Team B in the last 10 meetings. I would adjust the line a half-point for the past performances against Team B. I wouldn't do so for anything worse than 7-3 though.

[gmcarroll33]

Fkn brilliant

[TPowell]

I understand this isn't new but just thought it'd be good to throw out there since I havent seen it on here before

[Trucker George]

Any changes to your method in the first games of the season?

[TPowell]

I typically freelance early in the year, betting little and on very few games.

[mdemps9190]

great thread. where do you post your plays tpowell

[TPowell]

I try to post my plays in the NCAA basketball subforum

[phans3]

nice post
do you go about capping nba games the same way?

if not why? are the lines in the nba to sharp for this system?

thanks

[Foals]

Thanks for sharing, cheers.

[bozeman]

Tpowell, so if Team A resulted in -5 spread according to this system, and the actual line is -2,5 given by the bookie, do I get that right you bet Team A where you system leans? Or do you go with the bookie for team B?

[mdemps9190]

I think you would bet team A because if you're anticipating team A to win by 5 or more, then you wouldn't want team B to have to lose by 2 or less.