help me then, answer my questions and help me.
I think openers come from models that use power rankings adjusted for injury, weather and a small tiny dash of sentiment on certain scenarios
here are my NBA power rankings currently
My
PR column is my power rankings and they are what I use to model games! you can add roughly 3 for home team and you will see how close my rankings are!
here are my totals rankings its a plus minus system which honestly right now has been working rough but historically has done real well
to use my totals its pretty easy just take scoring average and adjust for the scoring avg example
Rockets 1.11
Heat -5.45
so league total avg is 220.6 subtract -4.34 and you get 216.26 and then you round so 216.5 and then adjust for injuries and as you can see Heat have lots of key injuries so it will drop accordingly, I aim to be within 3 points of the total and 2 points on the sides
I average on the season 2.49 off on totals and 1.37 on sides
I also dont just use power rankings to get a line, I adjust using a comparable analysis of the past 4 opponents for each team in the game and add that to the power ranking numbers to get a line