1. #36
    swordlord
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    St.Louis Blues - Edmonton Oilers 64-16-20

  2. #37
    swordlord
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    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    0 0 8 9 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
    1 1 23 24 27 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2 12 30 53 36 17 10 0 0 0 0 0
    3 5 49 65 58 23 6 1 0 0 0 0
    4 15 42 50 51 27 6 1 0 0 0 0
    5 8 37 54 33 12 1 0 0 0 0 0
    6 6 17 38 31 8 4 1 0 0 0 0
    7 3 12 13 8 11 1 0 0 0 0 0
    8 1 0 8 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
    9 0 2 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
    10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Last edited by swordlord; 12-05-18 at 05:00 AM.

  3. #38
    oilcountry99
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    Quote Originally Posted by swordlord View Post
    Hello, i have done simulating models for predicting icehockey, football etc based on monte carlo in excel. Its pretty simple procedure. with this you can calculate 1X2, under/over, Spread etc.
    Are you still interested? Just let me know.

    First you need to calculate mean and standard deviation for both teams.
    Then use box-muller method https://www.statisticshowto.datascie...le-definition/ for generate randomized goals. Remove all negative numbers (if occurs) because goals are positive integers. I usually generate 10000 numbers.
    Now you can do your calculations in spreadsheet. Transform your numbers first into integers. Positive Goal-difference means home win and negative goal-difference means guest win. you can also delete all goal values from both teams over 7 because they are so rare.
    Yes I'm still interested, thanks for posting

  4. #39
    swordlord
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    Always calculate these also: Most important is area between percentile 25% to percentile 75%. You should use those values only when calculating odds for NBA or some other form of sports which has high number of points.

    • =AVERAGE
    • =STDEV
    • =MIN
    • =PERCENTILE.EXC(25 %)
    • =MEDIAN
    • =PERCENTILE.EXC(75 %)
    • =MAX
    • =COUNT

  5. #40
    oilcountry99
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    I have no idea what your above posts mean. box-muller method? What is that table you show? Looks like a poisson chart. Sorry for my ignorance and lack of math knowledge. I am most likely light years away from your level. LOL. I do appreciate your sharing and interest, but this is over my head. I'm interested just not quite sure where to begin with this.

  6. #41
    swordlord
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    Instead of generating randomized numbers with box-muller method you can do it just use randbetween (min-max) or rather use numbers between percentile25% to percentile75%

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