Ex. An NHL player averages 1 goal per game.
What would be the fair price for this prop
Player Over 0.5 goals
Player Under 0.5 goals
What would be the fair price for this prop
Player Over 0.5 goals
Player Under 0.5 goals
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Assuming the expectation of 1 goal is accurate:
OVER 0.5 goals (-172)
UNDER 0.5 goals (+172)Comment -
Any math to back this up?Comment -
No I just took a stab in the dark
Read up on Poisson Distribution. The hard part is coming up with accurate predictions (i.e. your estimate of 1 goal). Pricing them with Poisson is easy (assuming the Poisson distribution is applicable to whatever you are looking at; I learned this lesson the hard way).Comment