Hi all,

another thing I am trying to figure out is how to calculate the chance each team has to reach x (x =10, or X=15, etc) first. So, there are 3 possibilities: Or team A, or Team B or neither, if time runs out without any of the teams gets there in time.

So, using the info we have for each match, Spread and Totals, we get the expected points per each team, and from there get the expected average number of points per minute.

Assuming one team has 1,9 pts/m and the other 2,2 pts/m, means that the team giving spread will be the favorite for the races, and more favorite as the target number goes up. So, team B can get to 10 pts within 4,54 m (10/2,2). In that time, A is just expected to score 8,63pts (4,54 * 1,9).
I guess this mean that for the race to 10 B has and advantage of 10-8,63 = 1,36 pts per each 10. How can I get probabilities from here?

thanks