ML Favorites of -800 or higher

**gman2114** · 03-18-10, 08:26 AM

you can make money betting big favs so that is why they hide it. otherwise why would so many books not list ml odds on all games.

**will2survive** · 03-18-10, 08:39 AM

I had a 8 team parlay and lost with Roger Federer -1000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!-----ml's can lose!

**maxdalury** · 03-18-10, 09:09 AM

you could begin to look at favorites greater than -10 and see how they did. In addition you could use the half-point calculator to get a rough estimate of what the ML should be based on the spread.

**BigdaddyQH** · 03-18-10, 09:56 AM

Here are some of today's more interesting lines. NCAA Hoops: Georgetown -1500. Kansas State -3500. Villanova -5000. Kentucky -9000. While all of these games should be absolute locks, you can see what happens if you should suffer one loss. It would take forever to catch up.

**LT Profits** · 03-18-10, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Here are some of today's more interesting lines. NCAA Hoops: Georgetown -1500. Kansas State -3500. Villanova -5000. Kentucky -9000. While all of these games should be absolute locks, you can see what happens if you should suffer one loss. It would take forever to catch up.

Kansas -15000. Send it in!

**Ruifgalmeida** · 03-18-10, 10:00 AM

betting heavy favourites on the ML never work well for me, in the short run 1 out of 5 favourite will lose.

**thebestthereis** · 03-18-10, 10:35 AM

you must be extremely selective. the only time i ever do it is in college hoops where the home court advantage is greater than any other major sport.

**Justin7** · 03-18-10, 10:43 AM

Will Kentucky win the NCAA tourney? No -750

I took some of that. Not quite -800, but close

**BigdaddyQH** · 03-18-10, 11:18 AM

Giving 15/2 is not my kind of wager, especially when we are talking a #1 seed whose only real challenge in their bracket will be West Virginia. If they get to the Final 4, they should be able to handle whoever comes out of the South Bracket, which is the weakest of the 4.

**Ruifgalmeida** · 03-19-10, 10:35 AM

How much do you bet on such line justin? Flat or calculating your edge???

**Justin7** · 03-19-10, 10:44 AM

I played Syracuse at -2500.

**Ruifgalmeida** · 03-19-10, 10:48 AM

When you make that plays how much do you bet, because when i play this huge favorites with flat bet i looks so much low profit and a lose will set you back huge.

**Z_Wipf** · 03-19-10, 11:24 AM

Im looking at teams around -8 points and hoping I can get a good ML on it. I would never bet something above -1000. Ive been betting all my points on money lines and money line parlays and have yet to lose. I know eventually I will but id be interested in seeing the records of heavy favorites. If im confident in magic covering -8 and i get them at -300 Id feel a lot more comfortable taking little risk to win less money than to do a coin flip night after night.

**Justin7** · 03-19-10, 12:32 PM

I use Kelly as an estimator. If I think I have a 1.5% edge, the risk amount skyrockets based on the moneyline.

**IrishTim** · 03-19-10, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

I played Syracuse at -2500.

That Syracuse/Vermont ML was strange. Someone said it was +3000 yesterday at the Cal Neva joints in Nevada and I saw -3000 at Pinnacle at the same time.

**Z_Wipf** · 03-19-10, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Will Kentucky win the NCAA tourney? No -750

I took some of that. Not quite -800, but close

Thats a good bet, they are too immature to win it all

**Art Vandeleigh** · 03-20-10, 03:44 AM

In addition to the games you'll actually lose, don't forget there will be plenty of others that will be excrutiatingly close to losing where you will be pulling your hair out at the end of these games wondering why you were crazy enough to risk 8 or 10 or 15 to make 1. Have fun with these!

**killawookie** · 03-20-10, 07:05 AM

Originally posted by Art Vandeleigh

In addition to the games you'll actually lose, don't forget there will be plenty of others that will be excrutiatingly close to losing where you will be pulling your hair out at the end of these games wondering why you were crazy enough to risk 8 or 10 or 15 to make 1. Have fun with these!

It seems EVERY ML bet i place on the Cavs or Lakers ... I should have just played the +10-+15 pts instead of the ML...

**Bootylicious** · 03-20-10, 08:50 AM

Since it seems like such a bad idea to bet heavy favs how is it not a perfect money maker to fade these massive favs?

**Z_Wipf** · 03-20-10, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by Art Vandeleigh

In addition to the games you'll actually lose, don't forget there will be plenty of others that will be excrutiatingly close to losing where you will be pulling your hair out at the end of these games wondering why you were crazy enough to risk 8 or 10 or 15 to make 1. Have fun with these!

There are also games where you blow the other team out and you can just lay back and enjoy the win

**JoeVig** · 03-20-10, 07:08 PM

Ask Kansas @ -950

**Z_Wipf** · 03-20-10, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by JoeVig

Ask Kansas @ -950

Believe it or not i was very critical of Kansas in this tournament. I thought Collins was the main reason they were good, now i see Kentucky losing to West Virginia

I understand that it happens I just wonder if it's profitable to bet all heavy favorites. Im gonna start a moneyline thread I think and see what I can do with it

**Rich Boy** · 03-21-10, 06:39 PM

If USC can lose as -30000 ML favorites, anything can happen.

**Justin7** · 03-21-10, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by Art Vandeleigh

In addition to the games you'll actually lose, don't forget there will be plenty of others that will be excrutiatingly close to losing where you will be pulling your hair out at the end of these games wondering why you were crazy enough to risk 8 or 10 or 15 to make 1. Have fun with these!

Does anyone actually watch these games?

**LT Profits** · 03-22-10, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Does anyone actually watch these games?

HUH?

March Madness is one of the few sporting events that I watch even when I have no action on the games, and I'd imagine that the TV ratings are pretty good.

That said, your personal emotions really should not come into play when deciding to make a wager or not, you have to be mechanical in your decisions whether or not to make a bet or not.

**Art Vandeleigh** · 03-22-10, 02:07 PM

Also the Super Bowl when the Pats lost to the Giants, I think a few think tankers were on the Pats ML that fateful day.

But I know what you mean Justin, +EV is what it is and needs to be played regardless of the odds or whatever your heart condition may be (should you choose to watch).

**LT Profits** · 03-22-10, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by Art Vandeleigh

Also the Super Bowl when the Pats lost to the Giants, I think a few think tankers were on the Pats ML that fateful day.

But I know what you mean Justin, +EV is what it is and needs to be played regardless of the odds or whatever your heart condition may be (should you choose to watch).

You phrased it a lot better than I did in my last ramble.

**accuscoresucks** · 03-22-10, 10:19 PM

being very very selective using top choice only
only works for college hoops,and college football