Reading Line Movement Help

[mdemps9190]

Ok so I've started working on reading line movement a bit, but I have some questions, this might get confusing but here we go. Start time for game 7 PM:
So Team 1's ML increases to -237 from -231 at 6:48 PM Spread is -4 -111 now

Team 1's ML increases to -238 spread is now -4.5 +100 (6:52 PM)

Team 1 ML decreases to -236 spread is now -4.5 +101 (6:54 PM)

Team 2's ML decreases about 2 points (whatever the inverse of team 1's ML is) and their spread is +4.5 -106

I know this is a bad example, I had screen shots and such. But initially due to the movement you think team 1, but towards the end team 2 starts getting more action (or so it seems) I guess I'm jsut trying to ask how to read late line movements in the final say 20 minutes of a line till gametime. Any help would be appreciated.

[sharpcat]

You also need to pay attention to what % of action is on which side.

If 60% action is on team 1 than the books are simply just balancing out the action.

[Rig]

I wish I could help
good luck with the reading

BTW which team won?

[suicidekings]

Ok so I've started working on reading line movement a bit, but I have some questions, this might get confusing but here we go. Start time for game 7 PM:
So Team 1's ML increases to -237 from -231 at 6:48 PM Spread is -4 -111 now

Team 1's ML increases to -238 spread is now -4.5 +100 (6:52 PM)

Team 1 ML decreases to -236 spread is now -4.5 +101 (6:54 PM)

Team 2's ML decreases about 2 points (whatever the inverse of team 1's ML is) and their spread is +4.5 -106

I know this is a bad example, I had screen shots and such. But initially due to the movement you think team 1, but towards the end team 2 starts getting more action (or so it seems) I guess I'm jsut trying to ask how to read late line movements in the final say 20 minutes of a line till gametime. Any help would be appreciated.

You're best off converting the lines to an equivalent price (use the half point calculator if needed). If you express the four time intervals all on a base spread of -4 with an equivalent price, you'll have a better idea of what's happening.

4 data points over the last 10 minutes of betting aren't really enough to give you a good appreciation for how the line is closing, and not every game has a clear winning and losing closer.

[IrishTim]

Another thing to consider is that the late line movements are often the syndicate plays. Perhaps someone more familiar with this can expand on it, but from what I understand they wait until late to get all their ducks lined up (and when limits are at their highest) before pulling the trigger. A line move 15 minutes before the game takes a lot more money than one 20 minutes after the openers are posted.

[mdemps9190]

yeah thats why I am watching the major line moves in the final 15 minutes. I think I'm going to limit my plays to clear cut movements. Last night for example lots of line movement shifted the bucks from -106 or something to -111 in a matter of 30 seconds, i took the bucks and they covered. But same thing happened with bobcats, then it shifted back maybe to -109 or something and they didn't so I dont know. I guess the sharps aren't 100% either though.

[suicidekings]

yeah thats why I am watching the major line moves in the final 15 minutes. I think I'm going to limit my plays to clear cut movements. Last night for example lots of line movement shifted the bucks from -106 or something to -111 in a matter of 30 seconds, i took the bucks and they covered. But same thing happened with bobcats, then it shifted back maybe to -109 or something and they didn't so I dont know. I guess the sharps aren't 100% either though.

Words of wisdom. You really need to have capped a game first and then let the line movement reinforce your pick (or make you withdraw it). Following line movement is a solid element to wagering, but not enough to entirely base your selections on.

[mdemps9190]

appreciate the suggestions guys. any other info about reading line movements?

[IrishTim]

yeah thats why I am watching the major line moves in the final 15 minutes. I think I'm going to limit my plays to clear cut movements. Last night for example lots of line movement shifted the bucks from -106 or something to -111 in a matter of 30 seconds, i took the bucks and they covered. But same thing happened with bobcats, then it shifted back maybe to -109 or something and they didn't so I dont know. I guess the sharps aren't 100% either though.

Well the idea is to beat the line movement, not follow it. If you see the Bucks go from -106 to -111, taking them at -111 isn't necessarily +EV. What you should then do is see if you can get them maybe -105 at another shop. It might not seem important, but there's a big difference between beating the closing # by 5 cents and betting into the closing line which is usually a losing proposition.

[mdemps9190]

But if its 6 cents but the same spread then it still could be a winning proposition right?

[sharpcat]

But if its 6 cents but the same spread then it still could be a winning proposition right?

same spread, less EV

[suicidekings]

But if its 6 cents but the same spread then it still could be a winning proposition right?

One game at a time, your chances of winning a particular bet don't change, but we're talking about long term success here. Over time, those pennies add up.

Take 100 bets @ 55% winning rate:

avg price = -111: +5.05u
avg price = -106: +7.30u

Which amount of profit would you rather have?

[mdemps9190]

thats a good point, i guess I'm just working on reading the movement for now...its hella frustrating when I thought I had them all last night, and then providence and louisville tank...You guys think we could post the plays in hoops where we see movement and see if it matches up with mine? Also what do you guys use? I've been watching lines at pinny and the greek then betting at 5Dimes and bodog. I use the sportsinsights free and sbrodds for percentages.

[mdemps9190]

Also i hear people refer to RAS, what does this stand for?

[Flying Dutchman]

Also i hear people refer to RAS, what does this stand for?

Righteous Angel Sports

[Aubsdad]

Also i hear people refer to RAS, what does this stand for?

Right Angle Sports located in California (his name is Edward). The "ultimate" tout service. $10,000 per package. When he releases his selections, lines can move 1-2 points He is supposed to be the absolute authority on college totals.

And I am with you on watching late line moves....I use Pinny for NBA and Cris for college hoops. A very sharp pro told me to do so. All other sports, it's Pinny.

I personally do not knock myself out on handicapping games. Crunch numbers, stats, injuries, b2b's, road dog records, etc., etc. all you want. The oddsmakers have done all of that for you when they set the line. They are quite good at it and have more and better information than we do. The trick is to figure out how "Joe Public" perceives the game/number, wagers on it, and how the books make adjustments, if needed, for those wagers.

Some will disagree, but it's my opinion that there are very few folks out here that can make a better line than the oddsmakers. With the advent of computers and the info available, the old "it's a bad line" days are long gone.

And for sure, "smart money" isn't always right....just more often than not.
Just my $.02 worth. Good luck

[mdemps9190]

i dont know where you see 10k per package, but it looks like I can get his picks for college hoops for 79 bucks for a week...thoughts?

[BigdaddyQH]

Guys, if you have to depend on someone else's opinions, there are hundreds in here. Why pay for them? Ofcourse the easiest way to win is to know what you are doing to begin with. If you do not, you are at the mercy of someone elses judgement. I prefer to trust myself.

[Johnny 55]

Or you could have payed the very reasonable rates RAS charges and be up over 52 units in college hoop this year.

[mdemps9190]

yeah I think I might split a one week package with my friend for 79

[Joe Dogs]

yeah I think I might split a one week package with my friend for 79

Be prepared to move very quickly on his totals.....As soon as they are posted
his totals have been known to move the market....After release its a race to
get his numbers.GL

[mdemps9190]

its legit though right? I never have paid for picks in my life and hadn't ever thought I would.