betting the sportsnews

xyz · 02-18-10, 12:22 PM

This reminds me of measuring stock sentiment based on news feeds. Although for stocks, the approach seems to be contrarian, buy when the news are consistently bad, and sell when the news are consistently good. This contrarian approach is probably not right for sports. I would like to know how successful the news feed approach is in either arena. Thanks for the info.

sharpcat · 02-18-10, 01:05 PM

Most likely no edge here, in the world of handicapping the books are the true professionals and have more resources and inside info than us and I guarantee the books know this stuff before ESPN does.

byronbb · 02-18-10, 05:00 PM

^^^there are things the pros know that ESPN will never know. Think of the information gathering and analysis that an NFL team undertakes to try and get an edge on their opponents. Reading ESPN is not a part of that so neither should it be a part of your attempts to pick a side.

I wouldn't be surprised if false "information" is fed to news outlets by sharps as well. I am still suspect of Phil Ivey's huge bet on COlts ML that came out just before the super bowl for example.

sharpcat · 02-18-10, 05:15 PM

Sports media is a great outlet for bookmakers who set the lines (the LVSC) to sway the public perception in the direction they want them to bet. Sportsbook managers are the sharpest in the community, believe me any breaking news you hear on ESPN or anyother media source is most likely to have been known by linesmakers at least a half hour before you heard the news!

Anybody who believes that they are getting some breaking news that oddsmakers have not is a fool, any line movement that results of this news is only the publics perception, if the books had not moved the lines prior to your discovery it means that they did not feel that it pu them at any disadvantage and only move the line if the squares create an imbalance in action.

phans3 · 02-18-10, 05:35 PM

all right thanks for opening my eyes

Justin7 · 02-18-10, 05:47 PM

If you can beat the move, there is an edge. You see this a lot in college sports - specialists know about an injury or illness before the market does. Market finds out that a starting PG has the flu, and the line moves 3 points. That bet before the move has a ton of value.

TheAccountant · 02-19-10, 04:17 PM

I think it is possible to find some things out before the book. For example, college students at a college may hear about injuries/possible injuries through the grapevine before it is released anywhere. A player may tell his roommate before he tells his coach, etc. etc.

benjy · 02-19-10, 04:32 PM

There's definitely value. Watching/listening to local sports news has often given me arb/middling opportunities on the NBA - most often when a prominent player misses shoot-around or some other similar news breaks.

CHUBNUT · 02-20-10, 04:55 PM

I stopped taking views on games about 4 years ago when I realised pre-empting price moves was more profitable. Sharpcat hasnt a clue in his post, no matter what the books know they never know what the impact of info will have on a price due to public perception.

The secret is timing. Assess when the majority of the Public will hear this news as this is when it has most impact. Remember, the general public has no idea what the price should be anyhow so they always feel like their stealing on news.

Ive often heard bettors saying a team has an edge because of an injury thats days old and the price long gone. Bottom line is know the original statistical line, that way any changes are obvious and calcuable

sharpcat · 02-20-10, 06:11 PM

nor do you know what the impact of info will have on a price due to public perception!

Anytime you beat a line move is a good value bet, not blindly betting everytime a star player goes down!

CHUBNUT · 02-20-10, 06:47 PM

"nor do you know what the impact of info will have on a price due to public perception!"

Ah but I do.

Its all about the timing of when info is given out. As I said earlier, the general public have no idea of what the price should be and feel they are getting value. The books as always are under pressure not to knee jerk this info leaving themselves open to real value on the other side. Once you get used to how and when prices move you can cash in on the herd mentality when the lines move.

sharpcat · 02-20-10, 07:36 PM

I cash in on line moves all of the time because I follow the lines and action very closely, so therefore I do not need to watch for sportnews!!! I bet when I know a line is on the move and have 6 books to bet with to catch slow moving books, but I will not blindly bet against the lakers just because I heard Kobe is not playing because that does not always make a valuable difference. I am sure if you have been around long enough you would know that a key player going down usually does not have much influence in a line because the books have enough of an edge to give them leeway, the question you ask as a player has to do with the fair market value and a line move does make fair market value, therefore you bet when you have value not when a player gets hurt.

blix177 · 02-21-10, 02:33 AM

This works for me right before the start of the game. Injury reports with game time decision works best. When you hear the news most book will move the lines, but there are lazy books (your local bookie), that only move with $.

mminkovski · 02-21-10, 02:58 AM

I am lucky to have a few European books that are very, very slow on line moves

whatsgood5 · 02-21-10, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

If you can beat the move, there is an edge. You see this a lot in college sports - specialists know about an injury or illness before the market does. Market finds out that a starting PG has the flu, and the line moves 3 points. That bet before the move has a ton of value.

Couldn't have said it any better myself, well put Justin.

CHUBNUT · 02-21-10, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by mminkovski

I am lucky to have a few European books that are very, very slow on line moves

Enjoy while it lasts, look forward to $25 bets in the future. If that doesnt happen then you have a problem.

Dark Horse · 02-22-10, 05:08 AM

Even a slow trigger finger can benefit from the news. I took the Suns-under Sunday because Nash was questionable (and because I know the team and had seen the injured Nash in the previous game). And I'll take the under again this Tuesday when Nash will be out. The public perceives the Suns as a running team, but doesn't realize that it's ALL Nash who keeps the tempo up. With Dragic starting on Tuesday the Suns should be much slower. There is no way the books will adjust the total by as many points as I think the difference in point guards is worth. (Plus they've been playing some very impressive D, especially in the 2H.)

skrtelfan · 02-22-10, 05:37 PM

Euro books all seem to have jelly in the belly.

sharpcat · 02-22-10, 11:26 PM

Any body jump on the Kansas line today after the news of Willie Warren not playing before the line went up?
wait a minute the line went down, even worse Kansas still did not cover.

Anybody jump on the under when the news broke before the line went down?
wait a minute the game still went over.

I am just saying a late injury does not always move the line the way you think and blindly betting on a game because you heard of an injury does not automatically give you value. Kansas was -21.5 and after the news the line went down instead of up, and the O/U was 149 and went down to 145 but the score went over and Kansas still did not cover regardless.

Point is bet when you find value not because you think you are getting the jump on a line move, hope you weren't on that one CHUBNUT!!!

Wrecktangle · 02-23-10, 06:48 AM

Knowing how to evaluate the news is the critical point. On this alone, one can build a profitable system.

This area is probably the hardest and yet the most fruitful, IMO.