Over/Under

[Zubi]

While I 'm at it I would like some suggestions to Handicapping Over & Under scores. Articles or experience. Thx guys for taking the time to help.

[Patrick McIrish]

A good start is understanding how totals are set. For example in the NFL the basic formula used to set totals has been around for many years. Predict how many yards of total offense there will be in a game, subtract 325 and then divide by 7.5 - that will give you roughly where the books are going to put the total. For instance if they expect 650 yards total offense in the game, they would probably make an opener of 43 or so. There are other factors as they get around key numbers, matchups etc... to consider but this is a good start in undersanding where the totals come from in the NFL.

[Zubi]

Thx again Patrick.

[Ruifgalmeida]

read the older Threads, you have good stuff there, could you be more specific about the sport you are interrest???

[Patrick McIrish]

Thx again Patrick.

Anytime sir.

[Zubi]

One other question. Whats really happening when the line moves and the public is not on it. Like Team A -4 then it moves to like Team A -6 but the majority of the people are betting Team B?

[man3645]

Justin7 does pretty well with over unders in baseball during the beggining of the season

[Joe Dogs]

One other question. Whats really happening when the line moves and the public is not on it. Like Team A -4 then it moves to like Team A -6 but the majority of the people are betting Team B?

Although the majority of public betting team B......More money coming in on team A.....Therefore line moves from team A -4 to team A-6.

[Justin7]

A good start is understanding how totals are set. For example in the NFL the basic formula used to set totals has been around for many years. Predict how many yards of total offense there will be in a game, subtract 325 and then divide by 7.5 - that will give you roughly where the books are going to put the total. For instance if they expect 650 yards total offense in the game, they would probably make an opener of 43 or so. There are other factors as they get around key numbers, matchups etc... to consider but this is a good start in undersanding where the totals come from in the NFL.

Heh. You know who wrote that, don't you?

[IrishTim]

No, but let me guess...."Simon Noble".

Anyway, you still think it's accurate?

[Patrick McIrish]

Heh. You know who wrote that, don't you?

I do not but it's been around a while, at least something very close to that. Last time I saw this exact formula posted was in that Pinnacle Pulse thing a few years back. Who do you think came up with it?

[Formulawiz]

Heh. You know who wrote that, don't you?

I know exactly where this system came from and I have been playing with this system for over 20 years. As a matter of fact 325 is the value suggested, but 348 for NFL and 371 for COL was more accurate for this year. Obviously these 2 values change as the season progresses and is dependent on the total yards/team. There were some good years but predominantly it is a losing system. If you followed it this year in the NFL and COL you would have got buried.

As part of this system there is also a method to calculate Line Values for home teams and is based on Points, T/O, PEN YDS and TOP which is a dud as well.

[Zubi]

Joe Dogs thx for the info. Never thought of it like that. Just beginning to understand that books %'s are bets not total money.

[Justin7]

I do not but it's been around a while, at least something very close to that. Last time I saw this exact formula posted was in that Pinnacle Pulse thing a few years back. Who do you think came up with it?

I did, when I was the content writer for the Pulse.

[Joe Dogs]

No Problem Zubi.

[skrtelfan]

I did, when I was the content writer for the Pulse.

What's the point of posting under 4 or 5 different "pen names" when you're so quick to boast about what "you" actually wrote? Why not just stick to one name?

[Patrick McIrish]

I certainly wasn't aware of that Jason, props.