Questions on what constitutes a "sharp bet" and creates a line move

**Thremp** · 01-16-10, 04:30 PM

Its almost exclusively about the money. How else would a "respected capper" let you know?

**JohnAnthony** · 01-16-10, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

Its almost exclusively about the money. How else would a "respected capper" let you know?

I've heard that sharps can move the line without having to bet as big as the squares. Books like Pinnacle "flags" them and the system adjusts accordingly. Only what I've read here though..

**Reload** · 01-16-10, 06:42 PM

There are different factors. Not only who makes a bet, and how much is already on each side - but also how risk-tolerant the book wants to be. If they agree that the side with more money or gets hit with a big play is the right one, they move the line. But if they want to be opinionated and take a risk with the vig in their favor, sometimes they won't move it.

Every game and situation is different. Some books move by just watching the screen, or have such low maximums it really doesn't matter to them if they have their line a little different.

**skrtelfan** · 01-16-10, 07:09 PM

Yes, a limit bet from a respected bettor on Pinnacle moves the line more than a limit bet from an unknown player.

**pats3peat** · 01-16-10, 08:39 PM

what about other books, they go by "limit" bets? and lets say they move the line 2 points, why would other books follow if it its only about money (wouldnt they have to know why the other book is moving it)

**Patrick McIrish** · 01-17-10, 12:36 AM

Originally posted by Thremp

Its almost exclusively about the money....

Lot of "whales" out there who are completely clueless.

**Grux** · 01-17-10, 10:05 AM

RAS (Edward) moves lines on almost all of his plays. The question I would like answered is "How do you know when a book is giving us a head fake"?

**BigdaddyQH** · 01-17-10, 10:50 AM

You will rarely see much difference in lines, especially at off shore boooks. We know that Bomutt likes to give the digs an extra 1/2 point or so, but that is about it. I'venoticed that 5 Dimes is the only eception, going with Minny -1.5 and San Deigo -8.5, which leads me to believe that their customers have gone heavy on Dallas and San Diego. Remember, off shore books, as a single entity, have a much smaller clientell than Vegas books do.

As far as line movement is concerned, for the sake of this discussion, it is strictly about the money. And it has nothing to do with "sharps" or "squares". It simply has to do with where the money is going. Begas could care less where the money is coming from. The sharps lost yesterday on the Ravens game, because the few that wagered it took the Rvens and the ML, driving it down from +250 to +210. Sharps do not win all the time. All the book wants to do is get an equal amount of money on both teams. They could care less where that money comes from.

**Thremp** · 01-17-10, 11:42 AM

RAS doesn't move anything sans on air. No one would care what he released if people weren't tailing. The reason people (books) care is because of the money moved.

**TomG** · 01-17-10, 02:46 PM

Lines move on money (excluding breaking news due to injuries, suspensions, etc). Big line movements are caused by big money. Sharps wager big money because they have large gambling bankrolls because... well, they are sharp. Therefore big line movements are caused by sharps. And the Taiwanese.

**pats3peat** · 01-17-10, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by Grux

RAS (Edward) moves lines on almost all of his plays. The question I would like answered is "How do you know when a book is giving us a head fake"?

Originally posted by Thremp

RAS doesn't move anything sans on air. No one would care what he released if people weren't tailing. The reason people (books) care is because of the money moved.

Alright but one person mentioned sometimes books care exclusively about the money, sometimes they take a side.

Good discussion all.

My main question is if they cared only about the money, why would other books follow them if one books lines move due to big money? or is it likely if one book got large wagers, another did?

I have to believe that one person betting a limit could not have too much effect, because someone could create a team of people who do this and get a middle, easy manipulating the line.

Originally posted by TomG

Lines move on money (excluding breaking news due to injuries, suspensions, etc). Big line movements are caused by big money. Sharps wager big money because they have large gambling bankrolls because... well, they are sharp. Therefore big line movements are caused by sharps. And the Taiwanese.

Tom or anyone have a good source on this?

Then, we have reload's thoughts - books having like the "Pinnacle theory" and Bodog theory of taking sides on games.

**Peeig** · 01-17-10, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by TomG

And the Taiwanese.

very steamy bettors

**mintybetmachine** · 01-17-10, 10:57 PM

Line moves can only be one of two things, and I know this from talking to people in the business.

1) Casino has no opinion on game=casino moves line based on money to satisfy VIG
1a. When is this used?
All the time except 5-10 times per sport per week. On those games...

2) The casino has an opinion on the game=casino offers weak lines to get action on losing side.
This only happens 5-10 times per sport per week. In sports that
2a) Have many games (NBA, NHL, NCAAB, ect): The casino picks off certain games that they feel strongly about. They won't do all the games because there are too many games to cap, similarly to how most successful people bet around 10-20 games a week. A good chunk of these games are the nationally televised games because they will get lots of action, so researching those games is more efficient.
2b) In sports with few games (Fighting, Football, ect): With so much time to prepare, virtually all of these games will have a casino opinion.

Simple. Good luck to everyone.

**DeluxeLiner** · 01-18-10, 05:53 AM

I always thought that line movement had everything to do with the money. That is why reverse line movement happens. Thought the books just want to take their juice and run and not have a position on a game.

**uva3021** · 01-18-10, 08:04 AM

a winning play is a sharp play

**durito** · 01-18-10, 09:41 AM

When bigdaddies syndicate bets in vegas everybook in the world
moves. Just like when rickas posts plays

**Peeig** · 01-18-10, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by durito

When bigdaddies syndicate bets in vegas everybook in the world
moves. Just like when rickas posts plays

lol

I am starting to think that Brent Musburger and Al Michaels are part taiwanese

**TomG** · 01-18-10, 11:28 AM

Look, there are a few things at play here...

First, different books have different risk profiles. Some books (i.e., most Vegas shops) goal is to achieve close to balanced action on both sides. More aggressive bookmakers (offshore shops) are willing to hold a line and take unbalanced action if they feel they have the best of it.

Second, people have the misconception that books are omniscious and know the correct line for a game (e.g., "Vegas knows something", "traps game", etc). They don't. They might have a better idea than most bettors, but really they don't know precisely what line will achieve a positive theoretical hold for the house on both sides.

Now, when money pours in in a lopsided fashion, a book is going to be highly motivated to move the line. Why? Books who want balanced action are going to move to try to attract action on the other side. Books who don't mind fading big bets may get nervous. What if the betting line is off and they're bleeding EV on one side? So they move just to be safe. There's really no downside to moving the line since people who still want to bet that side have to pay a little more and people who want the other side will help balance.

**raiders72002** · 01-18-10, 12:08 PM

Lines move in three different ways. Faces, air and action.

Faces - Respected syndicate such as Billy Walters or Billy Baxter.

Air - Depending upon the sport. Books will follow another book. For instance, the Greek or CRIS may move it's line and others follow.

Action - This type of book wants 50/50 action so they'll move the line to even off the wagers to guarantee a profit.

Not all books want even action. Say Pinnacle wants to gamble on a game. They will set a line that will give them a position. Thus they are gambling getting vig instead of giving.

**pats3peat** · 01-19-10, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by raiders72002

Lines move in three different ways. Faces, air and action.

Faces - Respected syndicate such as Billy Walters or Billy Baxter.

Air - Depending upon the sport. Books will follow another book. For instance, the Greek or CRIS may move it's line and others follow.

Action - This type of book wants 50/50 action so they'll move the line to even off the wagers to guarantee a profit.

Not all books want even action. Say Pinnacle wants to gamble on a game. They will set a line that will give them a position. Thus they are gambling getting vig instead of giving.

I want to learn more about the syndicates, do they sometimes bet under different peoples names though?

It seems like you know a lot about all the types of line movement - even including the theory that books gamble. Do you agree they gamble on 5-10 games a week or something, and most likely big TV games or something so "research is more efficient" as one person posted?

**Wrecktangle** · 01-19-10, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by pats3peat

It seems like you know a lot about all the types of line movement - even including the theory that books gamble. Do you agree they gamble on 5-10 games a week or something, and most likely big TV games or something so "research is more efficient" as one person posted?

Not a theory. Spiro (The Greek) is in the NBA market daily, for example.

**pats3peat** · 01-19-10, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by Wrecktangle

Not a theory. Spiro (The Greek) is in the NBA market daily, for example.

How many games does he gamble on and is there any trend that you think he uses to pick these, like big games

**raiders72002** · 01-19-10, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by pats3peat

I want to learn more about the syndicates, do they sometimes bet under different peoples names though?

It seems like you know a lot about all the types of line movement - even including the theory that books gamble. Do you agree they gamble on 5-10 games a week or something, and most likely big TV games or something so "research is more efficient" as one person posted?

yes, known as beards

Billy Walters Loses Millions On Chargers Game

written January 19, 2010 by Kenneth Weitzner

Greed Kills. We all know that as sports bettors. Even the best can sometimes "get a bugaboo" up their derriere and wager much more than normal on a particular sporting event. Such was the case this past Sunday.

Wise guys like Billy Walters are the most feared gamblers in our industry. No one commands as much respect as this icon. He came to Las Vegas penniless, but has risen to the top of the sports betting chain. Very few bookmakers will take bets directly from this man. I have seen BW put many operators out of business firsthand when I worked for him.

Sunday was no ordinary day for this exceptionally gifted man. I believe he had accomplished what he had set up to do all week long. With a plethora of people assisting him, Billy Walters worked hard to make sure the Chargers were only a 7 point favorite over the Jets on Saturday. The line had opened 9 in some spots.

Then, his beards were ordered to "pound" the Chargers. It works something like this in order to get down the most money possible.

First, you bet them on parlays. Normally, bookmakers will not move a line on a parlay because the result is dependent on two or more different outcomes. So which of the them would you move? The answer for most is none of them.

Personally, I used to be involved betting round robin parlays for Mr. Walters. I would actually parlay 3 games in order to get down more money for him. I would parlay team "A" with Team "B", then team "B" with team "C," and finally team "A" with team "C." None of the lines would ever move.

After parlaying the Chargers, the next sequence that is used to get maximum volume before the line moves is to bet "teasers." There are numerous types offered, but the most common one used by BW and other wise guys is the two team 6 pointer. For those who may not be familiar with this, bookmakers allow you to add or subtract 6 points on two different games. You lay the customary 11-10 juice, but you must win both bets in order to collect. Sometimes a tie on one game along with a win will count as a push.

In this case, Billy had his army of beards wager 6 point teasers with the Chargers being brought down to 1 with a variety of other NFL Playoff games. For example, I believe he took the Saints down to 1 (they were 7 point favorites over the Cardinals), along with the Chargers minus 1.

Everything looked fine for BW after the Saints throttled Arizona on Saturday. His teasers were still alive and the line on the San Diego game was still at 7, even though he probably already had millions of dollars placed on them.

The next sequence of events used by wise guys to get more volume down without altering the pointspread is to bet your team on the money line.

Billy Walters did exactly that. He ordered an all out blitz (pun intended) on the Chargers and laid as much as 4:1 in some places before the assault was haulted.

Lastly, unless you live in a vacuum, you would have observed that the line on the San Diego Chargers was at 7 on Saturday and even early Sunday before it closed at 9 just before kick off late Sunday afternoon.

In order to move an NFL playoff game a full two points off of 7 on the day of the game takes an extraordinary amount of money. Since BW knew the public would also be betting on the Chargers, I believe he ordered his beards to wager "all they could" early Sunday morning. I suspect he laid 7 and he also laid 7 minus 20 before the bookmakers had finished drinking their first cup of coffee.

The public followed soon after and laid the worst of it as is often the case (8 and even 9).

When the Jets were only down by 7 at halftime, I wonder if Billy knew he was on the wrong side. As a casual observer, I felt the Jets were fortunate to be down by only a touchdown. And we all know what often happens when a big favorite allows an underdog to hang around long enough.

The Jets were the "right" side in the second half, and I can only imagine what Billy Walters felt like knowing he was about to lose one of his biggest wagers ever.

Was BW showing discipline or was he being greedy with his methodology of getting down so much volume on an NFL playoff game?

I believe only Mr. Walters knows that answer

**raiders72002** · 01-19-10, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by pats3peat

I want to learn more about the syndicates, do they sometimes bet under different peoples names though?

It seems like you know a lot about all the types of line movement - even including the theory that books gamble. Do you agree they gamble on 5-10 games a week or something, and most likely big TV games or something so "research is more efficient" as one person posted?

They bet lots of games. May have 25 bets or more on a day.

**Grux** · 01-19-10, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

RAS doesn't move anything sans on air. No one would care what he released if people weren't tailing. The reason people (books) care is because of the money moved.

If the books didn't respect his plays, then why do they move the line?

**Busterflywheel** · 01-19-10, 09:35 PM

Money moves lines....

**pats3peat** · 01-20-10, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by raiders72002

They bet lots of games. May have 25 bets or more on a day.

Why are lines so similar across books if they have up to so many bets in one day? Have they proven that they can win at like a 55% clip? If they did, would want to know because it would make me lean toward/away from a bet sometimes.

Are Most of their bets on totals or like NCAAB? Because like Pinnacle doesnt seem to be off on many games for like the NBA.

**Joe Dogs** · 01-20-10, 10:27 PM

I want to learn more about the syndicates, do they sometimes bet under different peoples names though?

Get a copy of a book called Smart Money written by Michael Konik
In the book the author becomes a runner for a big Gambling outfit
The Leader of the outfit is called Big Daddy Mathews aka Billy Walters

**Busterflywheel** · 01-21-10, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by uva3021

a winning play is a sharp play

There you go...Although some Books have registered accounts that seem to be on the rigt soften way more often than not and their accts are tagged..Maybe these folks are who books etc refer to as sharp bets..

**blix177** · 01-21-10, 05:25 PM

Money move the lines. I am no sharp, but I notice the line move after I drop $3k on a total.

**icsky3** · 01-21-10, 06:26 PM

Good question here, I'll look into it. Give me a couple days

**THE PROFIT** · 02-16-10, 05:13 AM

I notice when bookmaker puts their lines out at 5:00pm ET they move rapidly within the first 30 seconds from the guys who are laying money on the virgin line. They have a rather small limit, I think $500, so it's not necessarily the money moving it, its the man moving it. That much money can't be placed in 10-15 seconds to move a total 3-4 points, but if it stays there for 5 minutes it can be and they know it.

**LT Profits** · 02-16-10, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by uva3021

a winning play is a sharp play

Not necessarily. Winning with a -165 favorite that should be -145 or even a +375 underdog that should be +450 is NOT a sharp play.

**LT Profits** · 02-16-10, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by Grux

If the books didn't respect his plays, then why do they move the line?

Because they have large client bases, so the books know they will get heavy volume on their plays. John Morrison is a scalper's wet dream in baseball because the guy is an idiot but the books are forced to move lines on his plays because he has such a large following.