Why does no one bet NBA moneylines?

[mintybetmachine]

All the posters, all the touts, all play sides and totals. Vegas works hard all day to make sure that those things hit 50% so that there aren't any noticeable trends. Moneylines you are just picking the team to win, and you don't lose money if a favorite rests its starters and has a close game. Is there some math proof behind this?

[Masu485]

many many many posters play basketball and football MLs. i tend to stay away from them though. MLs are the same deal anyway as with sides. with sides, a team has a 50% chance of winning, you are paying them having a higher % chance. with MLs, a fav has a 65% chance of winning, you are paying for a 70% chance.

i have no math or anything, but i find your angle interesting about resting starters. lakers have been known to miss covering in the last qtr after covering the entire game, just because they rest starters. they know they will win regardless.

but i would assume vegas takes this into account with their lines, perhaps upping the prices on Lakers MLs to counteract this. interesting nonetheless

[Glitch]

i think its because your win percentage has to be so much higher to break even or realize a profit from a lesser number of losses. i bet moneylines all the time if they're reasonable.

Lakers ML, Magic ML, Andy Roddick ML, NJ Devils ML pays +340 tonight

[LBJ23]

NBA is risky to bet MLs. Too many big favs (-500 or higher) can lose on any given night.

[20Four7]

I play ML dogs that I feel will win outright.... they are few and far between. I don't want to play the -900 favourite that only has a 80% chance of winning...... yes you will win a lot of the time but the one loss will kill your bankroll. Give me the -900 favourite that will win 95% I'm all over it.

[aceking]

if you bet 3 ml dogs of +200 , if you win 1 you breakeven .

if you win 2/3 , then its $$$$$

[BigdaddyQH]

I can not speak for hoops, because I do not play them, but in general, there are two times that ML's will be wagered. The first is when you think a dog of less than 2 (3 in football) can win outright, and you want to get a little more bang for your buck. The second is when the bridge jumpers take a huge favorite, thinking that they can not lose. They are called "Bridge Jumpers" because they give huge odds to win very little. It is an old horse race expression, when guys bet hundreds of thousands of dollars to win 5 cents for every dollar wagered. If the horse finishes out of the money, well, you can figure out the rest.

[Peeig]

People bet mobney linez....if they didn't, the books wouldn't bother offerring them

[Sawyer]

Picking ML for an underdoog is a good idea like Denver Nuggets last night. Picking -500 ML favourites is suicide..

[homerbush]

I love ML's for underdogs

[MrX]

Touts post spreads and totals because that's what their customers want and are familiar with. Posters largely do so for the same reason, only they are after praise and approval instead of money.

Advantage players are every bit as willing to play MLs as any other bet with value, and in fact they play many MLs.

[fresnosurf]

Crazy shit happens in the Nba

[Arilou]

People don't bet MLs because they don't understand them. Most people have no idea how to measure success or how to size bets when lines get away from the +120 to -120 range, they don't feel good about such bets and they have rules of thumb (never -160! or never +160! or both! or whatever) to keep them away. People also worry that there's a reason they're being offered an attractive ML number, even though there almost never is one that you should worry about.

[Nick6570]

The money line is usually to high and requires you to spend an absurd about to only make a little bit of money

[warriorfan707]

Who said noone bets Money Lines? A 2 or 3 team ML parlay can often be a lucrative endeavor.

[Wrecktangle]

Sharpest guys do MLs because they understand them, but the market is much smaller since the general public does not. So with a smaller market, everyone spends less time there and more in the larger, more vibrant point spread markets.

[Fishhead]

Sharpest guys do MLs because they understand them, but the market is much smaller since the general public does not. So with a smaller market, everyone spends less time there and more in the larger, more vibrant point spread markets.

We call this hitting the nail on the head in the business..........

[Raleigh77]

Moneylines are a powerful tool if used correctly, an effective weapon in a sharp players arsenal to be deployed in value situations, one of the biggest advantages of having a large roll is being able to bet on ML Dogs that provide value.

[skrtelfan]

A lot of books have crappy vig on MLs; typically most of the good NBA (or CBB for that matter) ML prices I see are at Pinnacle or Matchbook.

[Wrecktangle]

Thanks Fish, for a while there I thought you'd abandoned us pointy heads here in "the tank"

nice to see you back.

[BigdaddyQH]

The vig on ML wagers can often be misleading to the average gambler. The NBA does not get a lot of ML action because oftwo factors. First, Joe Pub can not understand it, and does not have a lot of time to figure it out. Unlike football, in hoops, the line comes out the day of the game. Second, the cost. ML's can vary from dime lines to 20 cents or more. The size of your bankroll should not determine whether you wager ML's or not. It is strictly a matter of comfort. Most people are used to giving or receiving points, so most peole go with the straight side wager.

[Igetp2s]

I think it's much easier to analyze whether a team will win or lose straight up, rather than trying to estimate how much they will win by.

With ML's, you never have to worry about back door covers and stuff like that, or even point shaving and crap like that in college (which probably happens much more than people think).

People also get scared off by bigger spreads between between the Fave ML and Dog ML the farther from PK it goes. They don't realize the hold % is roughly the same as it is for 20 cent spread lines. I get a kick out of people saying you should never bet heavy faves. It shows they have no clue what they're talking about. If the numbers make sense, it should be bet.

[HustleGetPaid]

I like playing NBA ML Dogs, maybe 2-3 a week if possible.

[tropolis]

eek

[DOMINATER]

I love playing money lines so much easier to hit .

[dkp]

nba money lines seem less reliable this year than most. seems like there are a lot of 6 to 10 point dogs winning outright this year. there are probably stats out that that refute this but it just seems that way...