nfl databases

**Justin7** · 01-08-10, 04:50 PM

NFL is brutal. The markets are so efficient, I don't think you can win with just stats. You need to find out who's playing, who's out, and bet before the line move.

**Dunder** · 01-08-10, 05:08 PM

If you are hitting 60% on spreads and/or totals then I don´t think that any ´enhancements´ to your method are gong to improve your results. Just stick with what you are doing.

I don´t know of anyone that is able to hit at that rate with any consistency.

**20Four7** · 01-08-10, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

NFL is brutal. The markets are so efficient, I don't think you can win with just stats. You need to find out who's playing, who's out, and bet before the line move.

IN the NFL just fade justins model and all is good. But as he said NFL is probably the most efficient sports betting out there because everyone and their brother bets it. You have to hit the market early and beat the line moves. If the line moves against you your probably done. I love NFL betting but it takes patience and discipline to beat it.

**marcoforte** · 01-09-10, 07:44 PM

Read mathletics, football section and look at the bibliography notes for ideas.

**dem_redbirds** · 01-10-10, 04:12 AM

look at your data graphically

**AliceCooper** · 01-10-10, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by pistolero

For the NFL and college football, I use an excel sheet where I paste stats I copy from several websites. then make comparison between teams,, always do visit offense vs home defense, then the other way around. that gives me in %'s what team is better in each statistic I use,,then I compare offense vs offense and defense vs defense. my primary value is defense, defense win games.
I would like to ask the people here what are the best statistic to compare in order to make my system more effective... such as .. running yards, passing yards,,etc. I might be using the wrong ones,, cause my personal records shows me I am on 60% or little more,, of course that means I am winning but I think I can improve myself once I have the best statistic to compare,,,
but as stated, that's my personal way to work with this. I read that much people use trends, and I think that's good, but teams change players,,and not always the result will be the same,,, so, I'd like to put in play all resources available,, stats, trends, or some other info that could make my system a little bit better,,,

on the other hand, I have seen some other people that post their picks, and they say "these are the plays that fit into the system" and they post 3 or 4 picks,,, and usually they win,,, so I think it must be some system around that already is working with a lot of success, but where to go? where do I look for? like yellow man sys,,, if they are working,,, they will never let you know.. who knows

if anyone can drop some info here it will be highly appreciated

thanks in advance

nobody hits 60%. you should have a multi million dollar home by now

**statnerds** · 01-12-10, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by AliceCooper

nobody hits 60%. you should have a multi million dollar home by now

i hit 60% on my NFL over November and December. of course that was preceeded by hitting around 44% in Sept and Oct. so 60% is possible, but definitely not long term.

55% is world class, but doesn't put asses in the seats, does it? and until avg bettors understand this, marketing will rule the pro handicapping world.

NFL is only brutal on favs and overs. if you like either of those, better hit them on Sunday night or Monday morning. if you like the dog and under, just hold tight and that number will move, in all likelihood, as we still see the public enjoys backing the fav and over in most NFL contests.

as for hitting 60%, you are either mistaken, or should be preparing yourself for one hell of a correction.

GL

**arwar** · 01-14-10, 11:48 PM

i think, as posted in other thread, that correlated parlays are more myth than fact. Pinny started a rumor in one of their Pinny Pulse releases, that correlated parlays are the """"holy grail"""" for gamblers. Just because a book won't accept a fav/ov or dog/un play DOES NOT necessarily mean there is an advantage to the player. There just might be some BS hype involved. show me some hard numbers.... 60%=wishful

**Justin7** · 01-15-10, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by arwar

i think, as posted in other thread, that correlated parlays are more myth than fact. Pinny started a rumor in one of their Pinny Pulse releases, that correlated parlays are the """"holy grail"""" for gamblers. Just because a book won't accept a fav/ov or dog/un play DOES NOT necessarily mean there is an advantage to the player. There just might be some BS hype involved. show me some hard numbers.... 60%=wishful

You know who wrote the Pinnacle Pulse, right?

**Pancho sanza** · 01-15-10, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by arwar

Just because a book won't accept a fav/ov or dog/un play DOES NOT necessarily mean there is an advantage to the player.

That is exactly the reason they don't offer them.

**durito** · 01-15-10, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by arwar

show me some hard numbers....

This data is easily available.

Let me know when you open a book.

**durito** · 01-15-10, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

That is exactly the reason they don't offer them.

It should be said that many books in fact disallow some parlays that they should take since they offer no advantage, such as most puck line to total parlays.

**arwar** · 01-16-10, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by durito

It should be said that many books in fact disallow some parlays that they should take since they offer no advantage, such as most puck line to total parlays.

exactly my point

**arwar** · 01-16-10, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by durito

This data is easily available.

Let me know when you open a book.

i have all sorts of easily available data - but none of it shows 60% win rate

**arwar** · 01-16-10, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

You know who wrote the Pinnacle Pulse, right?

from wiki:
In 2005, Pinnacle Sports introduced Pinnacle Pulse, a series of articles published online. The articles were intended to give gamblers details into key games and spread movement, while offering some less experienced gamblers insight into the theory behind successful gambling. The series was discontinued for sometime in 2007, but relaunched by Pinnacle on July 20, 2007 with Pinnacle claiming that the series was new and improved.....

I believe the original article I was looking at was credited to Simon Noble.

Was he the guy that started Telebet back around 1990?

**pistolero** · 02-22-10, 08:11 AM

the data I am trying to find is by teams in a whole table, like nfl.com, with stats on defense,then offense,, can you drop some links where I can go and check?
thanks in advance

**SparJMU** · 02-22-10, 08:47 AM

Pistolero, the efforts you are making are a great start, but it will never be as simple as comparing 4 or 5 stat categories and hitting 60%. I would say keep doing what you are doing, and add more detailed stat categories like RY (offense and defense), OY (offense and defense), strength of schedule, etc. Use these numbers as a starting point, but don't count on these stats alone to make your decision.

**LT Profits** · 02-22-10, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by arwar

from wiki:
In 2005, Pinnacle Sports introduced Pinnacle Pulse, a series of articles published online. The articles were intended to give gamblers details into key games and spread movement, while offering some less experienced gamblers insight into the theory behind successful gambling. The series was discontinued for sometime in 2007, but relaunched by Pinnacle on July 20, 2007 with Pinnacle claiming that the series was new and improved.....

I believe the original article I was looking at was credited to Simon Noble.

Was he the guy that started Telebet back around 1990?

Simon Noble = Justin7 (for a time anyway)