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Marc Lawrence is a trend handicapper, his DB goes back to 1980, I guess that's a large enough sample size for some things but not for others. Anyway, he is spot on in football, one of the best FB cappers IMO and is crazy accurate in college football. In basketball not so. I'm sure he uses this same method in both.
I am a football capper myself, I feel it is easier to intimately keep up with as there are much fewer games & teams, pro & college. IYO, is football easier to predict, I mean trends do seem to have much more of an advantage in football, do you agree. Would this be the reason Larence is much more successful than in hoops?Comment -
to make this systems work the bets have to be ev+I disagree, there is definatly some very worthy chase systems out there. The problem is the MM.
I am running close to 10 NBA/NHL chase systems mixed in with a pretty creative MM strategy and doing very well so far. I have taken several chase losses, and still in the positive.
People focus too much on chase system losses and not enough on building a MM strategy that can absorb the losses and grind away at them without taking big risks.
egr99
you can't win longterm with a chase system if the bets made are ev-
if you think you can than why in the world would you bet sports? move on to roulette and chase the shit if the casinos cause at some point red has to come... you just have to double ur money till red hits
ezy gameComment -
Would the following be another example of -ev and -eg for the book when the player is +ev and -eg? If the book's bank roll is smaller than the player's bankroll, then accepting the player's 20% bankroll bet would be -eg for the book. Of course, it should not happen in real life due to limits.Comment -
The funny thing is .. my systems have nothing really to do with the sports themselves...NHL and MLB. They strictly work on numbers...and I don't mean that 'bet a home dog after they've lost 3 straight to sub .500 teams' bullshit. It is really mechanical. I really don't know much about either sport other than the rules...again all my plays are purely statistical...Comment -
i have to admire"YellowMan" what he says is true,as in any worthy endeavor you must Put in the WORK, your niche is only good as long as the "Public" doesn't know about. another example is Black Jack in order to have half a chance You Must Be Able To Count Cards+ or - and then and only then you have a shot at winning a modest sum. naturally you should tip out to the dealers, otherwise they really may closer attention to there "Shuffle". If you happen to win (Med) Show a random act of kindness to someone you never met,how does it feel? i'll bet it made you feel uplifting? Hail MarysbrComment -
What Mr X wrote is very true. For example, someone that has an approx 5% advantage at even money (52.6% wins) and starting with a $1,000 bankroll can expect the following growth:
Wagering 2.5% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $1,638.59
Wagering 5% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $1,964.63
Wagering 10% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $1,100.91
Wagering 15% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $ 172.11
Wagering 20% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $ 7.19
That's why I like to point out that even if you don't use Kelly, it is important to know your Kelly % to avoid overbetting your bankroll.
Joe.Comment -
1st there's Martingale, then improvised by Morrison using some criteria to end chase after 3 series of betting and released more fine tune version. I combine them all, a chase using Labouchere using picks of good Cappers and betting within bankroll 5 to 10% rule. It's all about MM.
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You said you use Labouchere, so I'm wondering what kind of progression you use. For example, in the systems explained (in a thread somewhere on this board), he mentions as an example a 1 2 3 4 5 6 progression, knocking out the 1 and 6 if you win, etc. Also, what kind of odds do you look for? I would imagine that a Labouchere doesn't work well for games at -150 odds and such.1st there's Martingale, then improvised by Morrison using some criteria to end chase after 3 series of betting and released more fine tune version. I combine them all, a chase using Labouchere using picks of good Cappers and betting within bankroll 5 to 10% rule. It's all about MM.Comment -
I second sports betting champComment -
I third sports betting champ
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SBC + MM = Profits
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Also i'd have to say that i've been impressed by sports betting professor has been very good thus far, although i get the feeling that MM could be improved on this too....Comment -
Sbc sucks cockComment -
Betting Systems
I have read a few post in here and in my opinion they all are a bit far fetched, but I use John Morrison's system and it works we took a loss the other day with the Angels but I did not bet the final game the starting pitcher was hurt but it is what it is but we had won 10 games in a row before then my Bank Roll is up by alot no need to brag on the number but it's up and another system im looking into due to the fact John doesnt bet on College Football or Basketball (to my knowledge) Worlds Greatest Sports Betting System, Ultimate Sports Betting System and The Syndicating Betting System im looking into all of these but as the 4 Major Sports goes John Morrison is the system but the most important thing is Money Management Personally I bet 40% of my bankroll and 45% on a B bet thats all you will need or you could bet 20% (A) 25% (B) 50% (C) and you will always profit but try any of them out for yourself but regardless of who or what you use manage your money and if your betting with money you cant afford to lose then stop betting and always set paramaters before you start no matter how little or big your bankroll and stick with it and you will profit. I have no idea what everybody is talking about with this unit crap I talk dollars and cents I could care less about the units I care how many Benjamins Im up. And remember GETPAID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Some of the best advice given can be found in this thread.Comment -
still, like a poker... 50% luck and 50% skills....Comment -
I have to say that from my experience using statistics and math is a big edge but I still believe that money management is the critical point in a betting system.Comment -
Everybody have their own system but the best or The Ultimate System is FADING....fading not the public but A public(find your own public and fade them like espn countdown when they interview a player from a team that's on the radar, pictures/ write-ups of nfl team they post on thursday, drunk friends, and/or family members, yourself,etc etc etc!!!) How do you think vegas and local bookies make millions off gambling??? It's a control game, odds are against the public but we fail to realize the wiseguys are also part of the public and majority of the public consist mainly more of the degenerates!!! Do this... get hammered off drugz and down a 12 pack of beer, look through da schedule, pick 3teams that you really like or love, and FADE it!!! Or vice versa...if you see teams you really hate Ride it!!! You're not going to win them all but you will win more than you lose using the Fade system!!!Comment -
-dont take too many bets
-just bet on ur most successful sports at betting
-don't leave from money management and disciplineComment -
finding a pattern in data that doesn't fail............or develop system that will generate results without crazy streaks on a large sample size.....very close to impossible to do.
however, is there any money management systems that can overcome losing streaks or bad runs....you bet there is.
you can be a 50% ats bettor and make good money with the sharp money management system over a sample size of a thousand games a year.Comment -
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Best system is to follow bettingresource dot com and fade lang and hondo. Easy 75k to 100k if you follow that system using bettingresource money management. treat lang and hondo fades as 10 unit plays flat. This is really not a system but a good way to make money. Any bettingysystems that uses blind method without updating will fail because books will adjust. handicapping is the best way to win. if you suck fade or follow certain cappers.Comment -
Anybody who follows a chase system, such as Martingale, is going to lose in the long run. That is guaranteed.
Believe what you want to. It is proven that these systems lose.
Good luck to ignorant followers.Comment
