Parlays - Good or Bad

[Rich Boy]

What exactly are you trying to say Justin?

[LT Profits]

Correct Justin, forgot about that. But as we know, must books wont allow correlated parlays.

Also, if you are a 54% handicapper, then making single wagers would yield the highest expected growth (unless your plays are correlated).

So unless your plays are correlated, your better off straight betting (if your betting Kelly)

Actually, you are best off using a combination of straight bets and parlays, although the percent of BR on the parlays is tiny. For example, if you have a $10,000 roll and are playing two 54% plays at -110 at Full Kelly, the optimal play is $328 straight on each and a $12 parlay.

[Justin7]

What exactly are you trying to say Justin?

Correlated parlays are everywhere. Books are begging to give you money - you just have to think a little bit, then bend over and pick up the piles of money.

[Rich Boy]

Actually, you are best off using a combination of straight bets and parlays, although the percent of BR on the parlays is tiny. For example, if you have a $10,000 roll and are playing two 54% plays at -110 at Full Kelly, the optimal play is $328 straight on each and a $12 parlay.

I stand corrected, thank you LT.

[Rich Boy]

Correlated parlays are everywhere. Books are begging to give you money - you just have to think a little bit, then bend over and pick up the piles of money.

Any tips your willing to share Justin?

[BigdaddyQH]

Actually, despite what the math geniuses in here may say, no one can name me one successful gambler that plays, or suggests playing parlays. I have yet to see a consistant parlay winner in here, but I have seen plenty of losers. Until someone can proveto me that a big named successful gambler plays parlays and advises others to do, I will stick with the mathematical certainly. Parlays, teasers, reverse plays, if wagers and prop plays are ALL sucker wagers. Vegas makes more on these plays than on any straight wager. The odds are way in the books favor. So you can listen to the wanna-be's in here who think they know what they are talking about, or you can listen to the proven players in here with a proven track record, and every successful gambler in Vegas. Your choice.

[Pancho sanza]

Actually, despite what the math geniuses in here may say, no one can name me one successful gambler that plays, or suggests playing parlays. I have yet to see a consistant parlay winner in here, but I have seen plenty of losers. Until someone can proveto me that a big named successful gambler plays parlays and advises others to do, I will stick with the mathematical certainly. Parlays, teasers, reverse plays, if wagers and prop plays are ALL sucker wagers. Vegas makes more on these plays than on any straight wager. The odds are way in the books favor. So you can listen to the wanna-be's in here who think they know what they are talking about, or you can listen to the proven players in here with a proven track record, and every successful gambler in Vegas. Your choice.

Teaser players did well this weekend in the NFL, and will do even better if Wash covers the teasers tonight.

Seriously though, stop the nonsense.

[LT Profits]

Actually, despite what the math geniuses in here may say, no one can name me one successful gambler that plays, or suggests playing parlays. I have yet to see a consistant parlay winner in here, but I have seen plenty of losers. Until someone can proveto me that a big named successful gambler plays parlays and advises others to do, I will stick with the mathematical certainly. Parlays, teasers, reverse plays, if wagers and prop plays are ALL sucker wagers. Vegas makes more on these plays than on any straight wager. The odds are way in the books favor. So you can listen to the wanna-be's in here who think they know what they are talking about, or you can listen to the proven players in here with a proven track record, and every successful gambler in Vegas. Your choice.

And I say betting a small pct of BR on parlays is fine.

And for the third time, if you have nothing to add and keep ignoring facts when they are presented to you, please stay out of the think tank.

And finally, Las Vegas has become irrelevant, offshore is where it's at right now as you can bet on many +EV opportunities that Vegas does not offer.

[Justin7]

Any tips your willing to share Justin?

Yes. If you find a type of correlated parlay that a reliable book takes, don't say what/where in a public forum.

[Justin7]

Actually, despite what the math geniuses in here may say, no one can name me one successful gambler that plays, or suggests playing parlays.

I don't know a single pro player that doesn't use them.

I play them. I guess I don't really suggest it though - if you aren't already playing them, you're not a big player.

[TigerPawsSC]

Ineresting takes.

[pacesetter picks]

Well thats the facts. Parlay bets are fun period its for trying to win with small money. If people are winning parlays and are that good sould of course be betting the sides as well , get up fast that way but in reality bet more on the side and play em seperate ..Parlay have good odds are good because you loose ...

[IrishTim]

Justin's here to set the record straight. This could get interesting.

[olddirtyfighter]

Actually, you are best off using a combination of straight bets and parlays, although the percent of BR on the parlays is tiny. For example, if you have a $10,000 roll and are playing two 54% plays at -110 at Full Kelly, the optimal play is $328 straight on each and a $12 parlay.

Would you be so kind and reveal the math behind this or post a link which explains it?
I use single plays with Kelly and till now I thought that parlays should be played only when correlated.

[Pancho sanza]

Would you be so kind and reveal the math behind this or post a link which explains it?
I use single plays with Kelly and till now I thought that parlays should be played only when correlated.

His answer is correct.

Solver will figure this out for you, what you want to do is maximize the expected value of the logarithm of your ending bankroll.

Take all the hypothetical ending bankrolls based on all the possible outcomes of the bets, have solver fill in the bet sizes.

[olddirtyfighter]

Thank you Pancho

[LT Profits]

Would you be so kind and reveal the math behind this or post a link which explains it?
I use single plays with Kelly and till now I thought that parlays should be played only when correlated.

Just play with Ganchrow's Kelly tool right here at the site:

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Kelly+Calculator.aspx

[olddirtyfighter]

Will do. I am using it but I obviously missed that part. Thank you.

[louis.ana]

Parlays vs. Straight Bets @-110 considering 2 bets:

Parlays:
0-2: -1 unit
1-1: -1 unit
2-0: +2.6 units
note: twice as likely to lose 1 unit, 1/3 likely to win 2.6 units net

Straight bets:
0-2: -2 units
1-1: -0.1 units
2-0: +1.8 units
note: 1/3 likely to lose 2 units, 1/3 like to almost break even, 1/3 likely to to make +1.8 units.

If you consider 2-0 parlay to 2-0 straight bets the difference is 0.8 units.
In the long term, playing straight bets is in your best interest, reducing the cost of loss when you go 1-1.
If you are consistenly going 0-2 you should not be gambling.

[LT Profits]

Parlays vs. Straight Bets @-110 considering 2 bets:

Parlays:
0-2: -1 unit
1-1: -1 unit
2-0: +2.6 units
note: twice as likely to lose 1 unit, 1/3 likely to win 2.6 units net

Straight bets:
0-2: -2 units
1-1: -0.1 units
2-0: +1.8 units
note: 1/3 likely to lose 2 units, 1/3 like to almost break even, 1/3 likely to to make +1.8 units.

If you consider 2-0 parlay to 2-0 straight bets the difference is 0.8 units.
In the long term, playing straight bets is in your best interest, reducing the cost of loss when you go 1-1.
If you are consistenly going 0-2 you should not be gambling.

These numbers assume a 50/50 gambler. If you are in the 53-54% range, parlays perform better. That said, they should be played for a tiny percent of your BR compared to straight bets, although parlays should not be ignored entirely.

[Marginalis]

bad

[Fishhead]

bad

[texassoljaz]

parlay has alots of juice. the more team/total you add the more juice. but the down fall, your chances of 50% is gone. unless you are forsure i wouldnt parlay. i learned my lesson the hard way

[losturmarbles]

2 threads started by ganchrow on parlays:

Parlays

Correlated Parlays

[DOMINATER]

really great if your hot

[losturmarbles]

bad links

2 threads started by ganchrow on parlays:

Parlays

Correlated Parlays

Parlays

Correlated Parlays

Fixed vs. True Parlay Odds

Parlaying Large ML Favorites

[pats3peat]

And I guess you consider yourself a sharp, right? Well, there are a few things you should learn. First, the term is used to describe the amount of money wagered, not necessairily the winning percentage. Second, the big winners in Vegas NEVER play parlays or teasers. I dare you to find me one who ever said that they did, and won on a consistant basis. I know many of them personally. Next, the number of people who win 53% or more in this site are very few and far between. You could not do it. You claim to have lost for the first time in 14 years on baseball. While I seriously have problems believing this, because no one has ever heard of you, the fact is that you have lost. You also stopped making wagers on your spread sheet, telling me that you doid not win in the football season. The amount that you wager indicates that you are not a sharp. Therefore your information is simply not valid. Ou are plaing a guessing game, and like all people who do this, you will eventually lose.

hahha this guy is mad

[IrishTim]

If you're expected ROI is 5% on straight bets, it would be 8.9% on 2 team parlays, and 16.3% on 3-teamers but with more variance. Parlays have plenty of other uses as well, such as circumventing limits and/or getting money down without moving the line.