So basically I was wondering about what people thought when it comes to laying points in a spread situation at 3 or under and when it is right to moneyline. In terms of betting the favorite I am more apt to just lay the points. On the other side, I like taking moneyline value from 3 points or less but am curious what other bettors think.
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Get acquainted with your new buddy:Comment -
There are lots of money line bets that are plus EV. You just have to be prepared to lose a lot before you win. ANytime I think I dog can win AKA denver, I will take the money line if it's offering value. You have to determine if it's offering value. If a team is offering you +400 and it's a 30% chance to win is it offering you value? You have to know.
BTW if your answer is no I want to be your bookie.Comment -
In the NFL sports books tend to set the payout at the true odds for the underdog and take all the vig on the favorite. For example a 3 point road underdog wins outright about 40% of the time/+150. Most casinos will have the moneyline for a 3 point spread at about +150/-170.
In short usually it's better to bet the moneyline on the underdog and the spread on the favorite.Comment -
^ I agree, especially when you're dealing with spreads of under 3.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
It is a risk to reward ratio. If 40% of the teams wo are +3 win outright, and you get 3/2 (+150) on the ML, that equates to 50%. That could be a good risk to reward situation. Most "high rollers" and "wiseguys" that I know will always take the ML is they are going to back the dogs and the line is less than 3. 3 seems to be the dividing line. I also know that we have "middled" lines by taking favorites minus very low points or a pick and then grabbing the dog at the ML. You will ot win a lot, but you can manipulate yourself into a "can't lose" situation. This is especially true if the line is going to swing from, say team A to team B. We did it once this year. Grabbed Oregon on a future at +1 vs UCLA, and then took UCLA ML when Oregon balloned to -6.Comment -
A lot of bad advice in this thread. If it offers value, you bet it. Pretty simple. Every team has a chance to win.Comment -
Exactly Monkey. If a team has a 20% chance to win and they are +2000 then that bet offers value. The team with the 80% chance at -3000 offers nothing.Originally posted by MonkeyF0ckerComment -
Or the opposite of this.Originally posted by Desert TortoiseComment -
I was thinking lay the juice and take the points so you got 2 ways to win..... NE wins outright but fails to cover the 4 points.Originally posted by RickySteveComment -
Why? I actually agree with him if the spread is 2.5 or less. I NEVER play the ML Favorite if the line is -2.5 or less because those games don't land on 1 or 2 often enough to compensate for the extra vig.Originally posted by RickySteve
Also, HOME NFL Dogs of +2.5 or less are actually over .500 STRAIGHT UP since 1985. I don't agree with him with games that are right on 3 though.Comment -
I parlay moneylines alot especially in tennis when I dont want to lay a ton of cash down.Comment -
Remember that when an NFL spread is +2.5 the ML is usually around +120. If it was +2.5 +100 then I might consider the points. But notice the difference is usually between laying -110 on +2.5 and taking +120 on the ML. That's a huge 30c difference (also remember cents are not linear so you're getting 30c where they are most valuable). You instead are receiving odds instead of laying. That's huge over the long term. It also works in NBA for small dogs as well since fouling at the end of the game usually makes the difference between the ML and spread negligible.Comment -
Theres no way to estimate what percentage a team has of winning like what one of the posters in this thread is saying.
If they are +400 and have a 30% chance of winning does it make it a good value bet? No!
Its a losing bet. The value doesn't mean crap if you torched your money.Comment -
Yes.Originally posted by warriorfan707[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
In NHl, I usually throw on the dogs the day after favorites all cover.Comment -
OF COURSE it does, assuming the 30% is accurate. How are you torching you money if you go 30-70, +50 units every 100 plays?Originally posted by warriorfan707Comment
