SIA lean?

**Tomato** · 12-06-09, 06:28 PM

Thank you. Tomato actually has been tracking line histories and testing this system. Much easier for moneyline sports than spread sports in calculating +EV wagers.

**roasthawg** · 12-06-09, 06:36 PM

One thing I'll add... it most certainly is possible to beat the closing number consistently. Following the plays of a sharp book that gambles is still VERY risky though in that you have no way of knowing where they sit on a play... are they trying to balance funds or are they gambling? I think this will be a 50% winner long term.

**Tomato** · 12-06-09, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by roasthawg

One thing I'll add... it most certainly is possible to beat the closing number consistently. Following the plays of a sharp book that gambles is still VERY risky though in that you have no way of knowing where they sit on a play... are they trying to balance funds or are they gambling? I think this will be a 50% winner long term.

Tomato can assure you over the past 10 months he's been pulling data that it's nowhere near 50%.

**roasthawg** · 12-06-09, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by Tomato

Tomato can assure you over the past 10 months he's been pulling data that it's nowhere near 50%.

You could be on to something then... I'm not saying you're not at all, just that it sounds risky. A book acting as a gambler to get better lines is not an original concept at all... many people have tried to pass pinny off as that (although they definitely are not that... at least anymore). In essence you're tailing a sharp here... a sharp who publishes all of his bets.

**Thremp** · 12-07-09, 07:51 AM

roast,

You're not really talking sense. This strategem is tried and true for all nubs.

**Fishhead** · 12-07-09, 09:19 AM

I have almost exhausted my 30,000 win amount at SIA...........will be hitting the road soon.

**durito** · 12-07-09, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

I have almost exhausted my 30,000 win amount at SIA...........will be hitting the road soon.

lol

**Fishhead** · 12-07-09, 09:36 AM

Originally posted by durito

lol

I will miss the place............

**bleedblue** · 12-07-09, 04:35 PM

I've been sorta wondering this looking at my last few 2nd half bets. I am trying not to get fooled by randomness, so I guess the sharp side is just running good.

Tenn-Hou u24 -105
NYK +8 vs. Phoenix
Cavs -7 vs. Chi
Nebraska/Texas u23 -120
Nebraska +7.5
SD/KC u21 ev
arz/min u24 ev

These were all good lines, but only about 3-10 cents better than matchbook. Bets are 6-1 and the winners were so dominant that i am finding it a little hard to believe that these were only slightly better than 50/50.

**Fishhead** · 12-07-09, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by bleedblue

I've been sorta wondering this looking at my last few 2nd half bets. I am trying not to get fooled by randomness, so I guess the sharp side is just running good.

Tenn-Hou u24 -105
NYK +8 vs. Phoenix
Cavs -7 vs. Chi
Nebraska/Texas u23 -120
Nebraska +7.5
SD/KC u21 ev
arz/min u24 ev

These were all good lines, but only about 3-10 cents better than matchbook. Bets are 6-1 and the winners were so dominant that i am finding it a little hard to believe that these were only slightly better than 50/50.

Slightly meaning not over 54%, believe that is what they are stating.

By the way, NICE JOB!

**bleedblue** · 12-08-09, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

By the way, NICE JOB!

Thanks, lucky run.

Originally posted by Fishhead

Slightly meaning not over 54%, believe that is what they are stating.

I'm not sure what you mean. Who is they?

If we look at my previously posted bets, the lines I got averaged to ~-107.4; according to matchbook close my expected win% was ~53.4%. Am I being shortsighted and results oriented to think that the actual expected win% was greater than that? I am sure there was plenty of square money willing to play the overs and favorites, but I don't know if it's enough to keep the line from moving to the "true" line.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 12-08-09, 03:49 AM

Originally posted by bleedblue

If we look at my previously posted bets, the lines I got averaged to ~-107.4; according to matchbook close my expected win% was ~53.4%. Am I being shortsighted and results oriented to think that the actual expected win% was greater than that?

Of course you are. You have a 7 game sample.

**byronbb** · 12-08-09, 03:08 PM

I was wondering the same thing tomato just the other day. Was wondering what I was going to do once SIA banned me.

What about a matchbook lean? Tonight's NYI vs PHI game:

**Grux** · 12-08-09, 04:10 PM

I would be careful how much info you guys post in this thread. I would think PM would work just fine.

**Tomato** · 12-09-09, 06:25 PM

Tomato will start testing this theory now that he is banned from SIA.

**Grux** · 12-09-09, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by Tomato

Tomato will start testing this theory now that he is banned from SIA.

How much did they let you win? Did you get paid?

**20Four7** · 12-09-09, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

I have almost exhausted my 30,000 win amount at SIA...........will be hitting the road soon.

Sorry fish, no one I've ever known has gotten close to 30K. Most barely make it to 10K before being shown the door.

**donjuan** · 12-09-09, 10:56 PM

Sorry fish, no one I've ever known has gotten close to 30K. Most barely make it to 10K before being shown the door.

It used to be ~25k.

**smitch124** · 12-09-09, 11:11 PM

Tomato got banned after 2.5k

**benjy** · 12-10-09, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by smitch124

Tomato got banned after 2.5k

Seriously?

Two and a half to 1 year ago it used to be 14K (3 cases). Last winter 8K (1 case). I've never heard of anyone being bounced so quickly.

**Tomato** · 12-10-09, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by benjy

Seriously?

Two and a half to 1 year ago it used to be 14K (3 cases). Last winter 8K (1 case). I've never heard of anyone being bounced so quickly.

When Tomato goes on runs like this one, books want no part of him!

**blackbart** · 12-10-09, 07:32 PM

i think sia is smarter than most give them credit for

**LT Profits** · 12-10-09, 07:49 PM

Nobody says SIA is not smart, it is just that they intentionally cater to squares. So in that sense, they are geniuses in the sense that they continually induce their clients to bet into bad lines. And if they come across anyone smart enough to bet the favorable line consistently, they get the heave-ho.

**Grux** · 12-10-09, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Nobody says SIA is not smart, it is just that they intentionally cater to squares. So in that sense, they are geniuses in the sense that they continually induce their clients to bet into bad lines. And if they come across anyone smart enough to bet the favorable line consistently, they get the heave-ho.

This pretty much sums up SIA.

**betbetter** · 12-10-09, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by Tomato

When Tomato goes on runs like this one, books want no part of him!

Betbetter finds this thread comical.

**durito** · 12-10-09, 11:14 PM

george likes spicy chicken

**pats3peat** · 12-11-09, 12:17 AM

pats3peat agrees with your unsureness

**pats3peat** · 12-11-09, 12:18 AM

tomato i noticd u have all underdogs.

**roasthawg** · 12-11-09, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by durito

george likes spicy chicken

Seinfeld... the "Jimmy" episode. What do I win?

**LT Profits** · 12-11-09, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by pats3peat

tomato i noticd u have all underdogs.

LT thinks tomato knows value.

Hence, the boot.

**yisman** · 12-11-09, 12:38 PM

Bodog does this more often than any other book, from my experience.

**pats3peat** · 12-12-09, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

LT thinks tomato knows value.

Hence, the boot.

yeah but i dont know anyone whod oes this, i want to hear more form him rofl

**poker_dummy101** · 12-13-09, 12:28 AM

why do people share stuff on a message board?

**bodio** · 02-02-10, 01:18 PM

very interesting...

**Tomato** · 09-05-10, 10:24 PM