Where is the value, you think?

**JohnAnthony** · 11-19-09, 10:22 AM

wtf? which team do you think is going to win? take the best price, go home.

**the_fredrik** · 11-19-09, 10:44 AM

I dont have an opinion, I am wondering if people believe in the "pinnacle-lean" hard enough so that there is value in betting against it.

**dimon** · 11-19-09, 10:55 AM

well seems like team "B" is a value based on the Pinnacle sharpness of their lines

**Mr. Peepers** · 11-19-09, 01:31 PM

There is no value in picking a loser

**durito** · 11-19-09, 02:06 PM

-180 Probably has value, but not much. What sport?

The rest of you need to stay out of the think tank.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 11-19-09, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by durito

-180 Probably has value, but not much. What sport?

The rest of you need to stay out of the think tank.

+1

**Rich Boy** · 11-20-09, 12:00 AM

If thats a closing number on NBA/NFL/NCAAF/MLB/NHL I would guarantee value on B at "other books"

**IrishTim** · 11-20-09, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by JohnAnthony

wtf? which team do you think is going to win? take the best price, go home.

Spoken like a losing gambler. Ever heard of expected value? It's worth it to bet on a line that's set at +280 if you think/calculate it to be +225, even if you don't think it's going to win on this particular night.

**JohnAnthony** · 11-20-09, 02:03 AM

Originally posted by IrishTim

Spoken like a losing gambler. Ever heard of expected value? It's worth it to bet on a line that's set at +280 if you think/calculate it to be +225, even if you don't think it's going to win on this particular night.

Thank you IrishTim.

I figured the only way you veterans could come here and explain is by having someone to bash at. Really, an answer like durito's might be right but not compelling to a gambler like me, so I figured it's better off throwing it like this.

Anyway, I'm learning more and more about EV, line movement and shopping as I ask more and more stupid questions and make more losing gambler statements.

Thanks again!

**the_fredrik** · 11-20-09, 05:21 AM

The sport was NFL Miami-Carolina last night, and no it is not the closing line (then it is useless, you don't have any time to bet!) but it was around 12 hours before game start. The interesting thing is, at that point, is -180 a good bet???

As a side note, around 10 hours before game start the pinnacle line for Miami dropped to +173, which shows one of the "risks"...

**BubbleBobble** · 11-20-09, 05:45 AM

Hard to find value in NFL lines with no public team involved, and neither Carolina or Miama is one.
+180 on the Pinny side means prolly just that they had some more action on the Panthers.
They didn't offer a scalp number, imo -180 had no value here.

Don't forget that Pinny's website is automated, they have a weak number themselves often enough because of that.
You have to watch places like Matchbook also.

**LLXC** · 11-20-09, 07:04 AM

Haven't they already debunked the Pinnacle edge theory?

**Arilou** · 11-20-09, 12:12 PM

LLXC, it is essentially impossible to prove or disprove such a theory as it is statistical, the edge either way is relatively small and no two people agree on when and where the lean actually shows up. However, I do find it interesting that option C, that +180 is value, is not even on the list of choices, and it seems unlikely that the price here is EXACTLY -180 on the favorite! That would be an awfully big coincidence.

Best advice is that you've being given a chance to bet for free, since +180 and -180 are both on the table, so you can feel free to bet on either team if you have a good reason. One good reason would be that this is on a ML, so if the spreads agree across books you can decide what you think the fair ML for this game should be.

**IrishTim** · 11-20-09, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by JohnAnthony

Thank you IrishTim.

I figured the only way you veterans could come here and explain is by having someone to bash at. Really, an answer like durito's might be right but not compelling to a gambler like me, so I figured it's better off throwing it like this.

Anyway, I'm learning more and more about EV, line movement and shopping as I ask more and more stupid questions and make more losing gambler statements.

Thanks again!

First of all, I apologize for bashing, that wasn't my intention. Second, I'm not a veteran by any means. There are only a handful of veterans here, but they are certainly worth listening to if you are serious about making money.

Your statement that essentially said "just pick who you think is going to win" is a pretty unsophisticated approach to sports betting. That kind of thinking is for the guys who bet more for the entertainment value it provides than actually making money--which is perfectly fine, people pay for entertainment in all different forms and in my opinion, there are certainly worse ones that sports betting as long as it is controlled.

For instance you can have TEAM A at -450 and TEAM B at +390. I might think TEAM A is going to win, but bet on TEAM B because that's where I have calculated the value to be.

We're all here to learn and hopefully contribute. Best of luck this weekend

**TPowell** · 11-20-09, 10:19 PM

bet the team you think will win, simple concept guys, right Durito???

**IrishTim** · 11-21-09, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

bet the team you think will win, simple concept guys, right Durito???

...with no regard for line movement? I hope that's sarcastic.

**mihaita666** · 11-21-09, 12:17 PM

dude, for your plays you look for certain odds ? cuz im looking for the team i think will win, then i look at the odd.if team b has that odd, that's because generally, people bet on something, most of them bet on over, let's say

**xyz** · 11-21-09, 12:27 PM

With this market snapshot, it is very likely that you will find odds for TEAM A to be better than +180 on Matchbook, which will give you a small profit by arbing at Matchbook and one of the small books. Slight chance that Matchbook may have better than -180 on TEAM B at that time. If it did, it would not last 2 to 3 seconds max for a NFL game. The big boys on Matchbook would snag that up quick.

Originally posted by the_fredrik

Right now, there are the following odds on a major game ML available:

...............PINNACLE.......BOOKMAKER. ....LOTS OF SMALL BOOKS
TEAM A.....+180.............+160............. ..+160
TEAM B.....-200.............-190................-180

What conclusions can you draw based on this?

a) nothing
b) TEAM B at -180 is probably a value bet

What do you think?

**TPowell** · 11-21-09, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by IrishTim

...with no regard for line movement? I hope that's sarcastic.

keep throwing money on something you have no idea on and see what happens. You can't predict line movements when you dont know the game

**Rich Boy** · 11-21-09, 11:16 PM

everyone here is an idiot

**Rich Boy** · 11-21-09, 11:17 PM

including me

**the_fredrik** · 11-23-09, 01:13 PM

Thanks for your comments. I agree Arilou, option C should be an option too for completeness sake (although I do not believe in it)

I agree that Matchbook should also be checked. My odds snapshot was early on game day, so the Matchbook market was still small and wide (+177 / -197 or something like that, from memory..)

I have arrived at the thinking that the best guess at "correct" odds is probably around +180/-180, but there is no clear value on either side (so no bet for me!)

**filter15** · 11-23-09, 11:51 PM

nba