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Using closing line value to determine if a handicapper wins....
I posted this in the service play thread but it did not garner any discussion. It appears that many here already understand and/or use this concept and maybe can add more insight to the topic.
Closing Line Value
This is determined by taking the difference between a line on a bet/pick when it is made and comparing it to what the line is when the game starts.
Example: Right Angle Sports (RAS) released North Texas/Ball State Under 59.5 Wednesday 9/2/09 at 1:40pm PST. The closing line for this game was 54. Closing line value +5.50.
This "closing line" is considered to be the most accurate line, since all available information, opinions, and money bet have been factored in to it. In general bettors with the most past success and best resources are going to bet the most, and win the most, therefore influencing the line the most. If you are consistently getting a better line than what the closing line is, you are very likely to be a long term winner, simply based on the math value of what each point is worth.
This is one method used by sportsbooks to identify "sharp" action. It is also used by professional gamblers to measure prospects of a handicapper. This is a great tool that the general public does not utilize enough when choosing a handicapper or service to follow, in contrast to short term records, misleading hype, use of inflated unit totals, fraudulent win rates, and other deceptive marketing tactics that seem to garner so much attention and put money in the pockets of undesirable services.
Comparing 50 plays from any handicapper against the closing line will tell you a lot more about the handicapper than wins and losses from the same group of plays. When looking at small sample sizes it is difficult to determine if the record was a result of luck, variance, or skill.
Over the past 12 months, RAS has produced closing line values rarely seen by handicappers available to the public:
In 2008, RAS college football picks beat the closing line by an average of 2.65 points per pick. Sides by 1.18 points per pick, and totals by 3.39 points per pick.
In 2008-09 RAS college basketball picks beat the closing line by an average of 1.63 points per pick. Sides by 0.50 points per pick, and totals by 2.54 points per pick.
One might say that this line movement caused solely due to us releasing the play and our followers betting it. This is true to a degree, but moving the line is one thing, holding the movement until game time is another. If the line movement created a soft line in the view of the market, opposite action would come on the other side to correct it before game time, and it sometimes does.
Pros and Cons of Line Movement
Pros: If you place a bet in the morning at pick'em then check back later in the day and see it is at -2.5, not only are you very likely to be sitting on a +EV (expected value) play, but you now have the option of hedging a portion of your bet to go for a middle (bets at pk and +2.5 would both win if the game lands on 1 or 2). This added value will actually improve the odds (lower the juice) on your original bet and require a lower win rate to show profit
Example: If you place a wager on Team A (pick'em -110) $1100 to win $1000 early in the day, then later you are able to bet Team B (pick'em +120) at $500 to win $600, you would now be risking $500 to win $500 on team A and essentially erasing the juice. Bets like this would move your break even point from 52.5% (at standard -110 juice) to a much easier 50%.
Cons: The obvious con of such line movement is that you have to place bets quickly and you may not be able to bet as much as you would like to.
I know many will see this as a plug for RAS (and it is) but I hope that many will learn about the concept of closing line value and utilize it when deciding on which handicappers to follow.
Questions and comments are welcomed.
Edward
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Originally Posted by InTheHole
