I like this bet a bit.
The bet I like in it is tied first half/favorite 2nd half. You can get this at around 20-1 most times, I think the true odds in many cases are closer to 15-1. For example, I had a bet the other day that was a case in point, with the database analysis. (it lost, but still)...
In NFL, the bigger the dog the less chance they will win the game if losing the first half.
For example, Ladbrokes has the Giants/Arizona game, with the Giants as a -7 pt favorite, at +1000 for a Giants win first half/Ariz wins Game.
Or with the StL/Indy game, with the Colts -13, they have it +2000 for Colts win first half/StL wins game.
So a quick quiz for anyone who has read this far. What would be the correct odds on a game lined at -9.5 for the favorite to win the first half/Dog win game based on the above prices? 400 SBR points split amongst those who post the correct answer. :smile:
The bet I like in it is tied first half/favorite 2nd half. You can get this at around 20-1 most times, I think the true odds in many cases are closer to 15-1. For example, I had a bet the other day that was a case in point, with the database analysis. (it lost, but still)...
Cinn/So Fla double result tie 1st half/Cinn win 2nd half.
I know ABC/Jazz group have it at 20-1, I think quite a few other books do to.
Thinking behind the play:
1) I have 285 games in the database with two point homedogs.
2) 32 of these were tied at the end of the first half.
3) Road favorite won the 2nd half in 19 of these games.
So you are getting 20-1 on a 19/285 =7% chance play =14-1.
I know ABC/Jazz group have it at 20-1, I think quite a few other books do to.
Thinking behind the play:
1) I have 285 games in the database with two point homedogs.
2) 32 of these were tied at the end of the first half.
3) Road favorite won the 2nd half in 19 of these games.
So you are getting 20-1 on a 19/285 =7% chance play =14-1.
For example, Ladbrokes has the Giants/Arizona game, with the Giants as a -7 pt favorite, at +1000 for a Giants win first half/Ariz wins Game.
Or with the StL/Indy game, with the Colts -13, they have it +2000 for Colts win first half/StL wins game.
So a quick quiz for anyone who has read this far. What would be the correct odds on a game lined at -9.5 for the favorite to win the first half/Dog win game based on the above prices? 400 SBR points split amongst those who post the correct answer. :smile: