Another Math/Betting Strategy Question for Ganchrow, et al

[TLD]

Let’s say that using some Kelly type criteria, I determine that a straight bet on A is worth a $100 play, a straight bet on B is worth a $100 play, and a straight bet on C is worth a $100 play.

If I combine them into a 3 team parlay, is the equivalent to bet approximately $100 on it, or to bet approximately $300 on it? (I say “approximately” because I’m trying not to get bogged down in the small adjustments having to do with whether the parlay is paying marginally better or worse than “true” odds, the way a parlay slightly “compounds” whatever advantage or disadvantage the bets would have had as straight bets, and whatever other complications. What I’m asking is, aside from the various minor adjustments like that, should I be betting on the parlay roughly what I was going to bet on each straight bet, or what I was going to bet cumulatively on all of them?)

And then, the analogous question for teasers.

(Years ago, when I was just screwing around with the math at a very rudimentary level, plugging in different numbers according to different scenarios and such, I came to the tentative conclusion to treat them differently. Since then I’ve treated a $100 3-team parlay as roughly equivalent to three $100 straight bets, and a $300 3-team teaser as roughly equivalent to three $100 straight bets. But I wouldn’t mind knowing the “right” answer.)

[Doug]

definetely not $300, as you'll lose the parlay probably around 85% of the time. A lot of factors in this, like if you get +600, or the rare +650, if the plays correlate at all.

I'd probably be at 50-100 on it, Ganchrow will have the answer.

[Ganchrow]

Let’s say that using some Kelly type criteria, I determine that a straight bet on A is worth a $100 play, a straight bet on B is worth a $100 play, and a straight bet on C is worth a $100 play.

If I combine them into a 3 team parlay, is the equivalent to bet approximately $100 on it, or to bet approximately $300 on it? (I say “approximately” because I’m trying not to get bogged down in the small adjustments having to do with whether the parlay is paying marginally better or worse than “true” odds, the way a parlay slightly “compounds” whatever advantage or disadvantage the bets would have had as straight bets, and whatever other complications. What I’m asking is, aside from the various minor adjustments like that, should I be betting on the parlay roughly what I was going to bet on each straight bet, or what I was going to bet cumulatively on all of them?)

If you were concurrently betting $100 on each of the three bets at even odds, the bet on the 3-team parlay by itself would be about $48.25.

(Years ago, when I was just screwing around with the math at a very rudimentary level, plugging in different numbers according to different scenarios and such, I came to the tentative conclusion to treat them differently. Since then I’ve treated a $100 3-team parlay as roughly equivalent to three $100 straight bets, and a $300 3-team teaser as roughly equivalent to three $100 straight bets. But I wouldn’t mind knowing the “right” answer.)

Just think of a teaser as a parlay of bets on which you buy points.

[TLD]

Wow. I’ve been significantly overbetting parlays and wildly overbetting teasers if that’s the case.

Related question:

Say I have a book offering +700 on 3-team parlays. No juice, in other words. I find five games in which Pinnacle is offering –113/+105 on straight bets. This sets up what might be called a “pseudo-scalp” situation. It’s not a scalp in the sense of it being impossible to lose, but it’s scalp-like in that you are getting the equivalent of even money on one side and +105 on the other.

I bet $100 each on all possible 3-team parlays at the no juice book (round robin). I believe that would be ten combinations, with each of the five sides occurring in six of the ten combinations.

In order to create something closest to a traditional scalp, what should I bet on each of the five Pinnacle straight bets on the other sides? (Or, if this is a different question, what is the optimum amount to put on each of the five Pinnacle straight bets on the other sides of these games to maximize my bankroll growth?)

I would say (or at least would have said prior to your answer in this thread) that this would call for five straight bets of about $600 each on the Pinnacle side, since each game has six $100 parlay legs on the other side.

[raiders72002]

If you win 55% of your games then parlays are better then straight bets. If you hit 45%, you'll get murdered.

[raiders72002]

The ROI if you hit 55% on 3 teamers at 6-1 is 16.46 %.

[Doug]

Books that pay 7-1 on three teamers have a nasty habit of going out of business

BOS
BCN

You can play straight bets with that at +100, if you play 4 of the 8 possible parlays,also.

[raiders72002]

You can play straight bets with that at +100, if you play 4 of the 8 possible parlays,also.

You can also put the odds in your favor if you are good at predicting line moves. I had some great luck at BHB when they offered 7-1.

[TLD]

Bump to see if Ganchrow has any thoughts on my follow-up question.

[Ganchrow]

Bump to see if Ganchrow has any thoughts on my follow-up question.

At the request of several SBR posters I'm staying away from public discussion of this particular topic.

[TLD]

Oops, didn’t realize we were getting into sensitive areas.

[DrSlamm]

if you are hitting 55 percent of your plays you are still better off just betting more on your straight bets than you are parlaying

[Ganchrow]

if you are hitting 55 percent of your plays you are still better off just betting more on your straight bets than you are parlaying

That may or may not be true based upon the individual bettor's limits and risk preferences. In terms of pure expected value, it's decidedly untrue.

A Kelly bettor, unconstrained by betting limits, will find that his optimal betting strategy will consist of a combinations of both straight bets and parlays.

[TLD]

So my question is not only so sensitive that it can’t be answered, but my post asking it even has to be deleted? OK, never mind.

[DrSlamm]

is it simple to explain a situation in which there are no betting limits that betting a parlay can overcome with throwing away ev of an 8t1 bet and getting paid 6to1?

[Ganchrow]

is it simple to explain a situation in which there are no betting limits that betting a parlay can overcome with throwing away ev of an 8t1 bet and getting paid 6to1?

First off, fair mathematical odds on the 3-team parlay would be 7-1, not 8-1. But anyway, let's assume your pick rate is 55% and that you're playing at -110:

Playing 3 singles at -110, your EV would be 55%*300/330 - 45% = 5%

Playing the 3-team parlay at +595.79, your EV would be 55%³ * 595.79/100 - (1-55%³) ≈ 15.76%

[raiders72002]

100 games $100 each

Perc Winners.. Wins Str.. Losses.. Wins Parl.. Losses
45% 45.. 55.. 9.1100.. 90.8900
50% 50.. 50.. 12.5000.. 87.5000
55% 55.. 45.. 16.6375.. 83.3625
60% 60.. 40.. 21.6000.. 78.4000

Straight -110 Wins Losses Profit/Loss ROI
45% $4,090.95 -$5,500.00 -$1,409.05 -14.09%
50% $4,545.50 -$5,000.00 -$454.50 -4.55%
55% $5,000.05 -$4,500.00 $500.05 5.00%
60% $5,454.60 -$4,000.00 $1,454.60 14.55%


Straight -105 Wins Losses Profit/Loss ROI
45% $4,285.90 -$5,500.00 -$1,214.10 -12.14%
50% $4,762.00 -$5,000.00 -$238.00 -2.38%
55% $5,238.20 -$4,500.00 $738.20 7.38%
60% $5,714.40 -$4,000.00 $1,714.40 17.14%


Parlay 6-1 Wins Losses Profit/Loss ROI
45% $5,466.00 -$9,089.00 -$3,623.00 -36.23%
50% $7,500.00 -$8,750.00 -$1,250.00 -12.50%
55% $9,982.50 -$8,336.25 $1,646.25 16.46%
60% $12,960.00 -$7,840.00 $5,120.00 51.20%


Parlay 6.5-1 Wins Losses Profit/Loss ROI
45% $5,921.50 -$9,089.00 -$3,167.50 -31.68%
50% $8,125.00 -$8,750.00 -$625.00 -6.25%
55% $10,814.38 -$8,336.25 $2,478.13 24.78%
60% $14,040.00 -$7,840.00 $6,200.00 62.00%

[raiders72002]

http://www.geocities.com/raiders72001/ROI5.doc

In Word Format. Much easier to read.

[DrSlamm]

your post assumes (unfairly) that you are straight betting a game for the same amount you are parlaying

[raiders72002]

At the request of several SBR posters I'm staying away from public discussion of this particular topic.

Ganch- Don't listen to them. Your posts are valuable tools to all here.

I really find it funny when guys say don't post because you are giving away trade secrets.

I sure hope it's not the case here because this thread only contains betting strategy and the math behind it.

[Ganchrow]

your post assumes (unfairly) that you are straight betting a game for the same amount you are parlaying

No. We're just looking at EV%.

With no betting limits, whether you assume you bet 1,000 times more on the parlay as on the straight or 1,000,000 times less, the percentage EV is going to be identical.

For every dollar you were to wager on some linear combination of the 3 singles, you expect to make $0.05.

For every dollar you were to wager on the 3-team parlay you expect to make $0.157625, or 315% more.

[tacomax]

Ganch- Don't listen to them. Your posts are valuable tools to all here.

I really find it funny when guys say don't post because you are giving away trade secrets.

I sure hope it's not the case here because this thread only contains betting strategy and the math behind it.

If I agree with raiders, does that mean I'm wrong?

In any case, keep doing your stuff, Ganch.

[DrSlamm]

well i guess that makes sense because as the limit approaches 100 percent you might as well get paid 6 to 1 on every dollar you bet vs 1 to 1

[raiders72002]

With my example I just bet $100 each play whether it's straight or a parlay.