How efficient has the prop market become compared to the past 3-5 years? I understand props have low limits, so it usually isn't worth it for the books to spend a lot of time to analyze a specific prop, but has the prop market become more efficient than in years past?
watch the line moves - i am guessing that is a good indicator
if the lines are efficient that means no one is betting one side more then the other (usually, it could also mean both sides are being bet heavily at the same time, but i guess that still would also indicate an efficient line, if by efficient you mean the closing line is very close to the opening line)
if lines move a lot from the openers then i would guess the lines ar enot efficient, or they would not have moved that much - now that is assuming that the person(s) moving the line is better at developing a true line then the bokk who released the line - it could also just mean someone dumped a lot of money on one side of a line but they are not the "smartest" bettor so to say...
IMHO props odds aren't efficient at all. Few months ago I found a tipster site and decided to start tracking plays of cappers with best records. So far I have gathered 383 plays, mostly things like tennis challengers or props. I virtually bet to win 1U on all plays and I got the following result: ROIT=-0.345%, ROI=4.597%. ROIT is theoretical ROI based on no-vig closing odds.
Low limits
Lots of line movement on specific props on individual sites
Not efficient at all IMO.
I find lots of mis-priced props over the course of the year.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Prop market efficiency
Reply With Quote