Fundamental principles to win constantly?

JimmyJet · 10-02-09, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by johnnyutah20

Well we all have our theories. My formula may be considered by some to be fairly rudimentary but I have been above 50% since the beginning of the football season 2009. I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. Maybe I'm way off, but what can I say? It's working.

My strategy is based on the principle that the opening line established by bookmakers is a number to be trusted (I know about sucker lines etc., but for the most part, the opening line represents a calculated number representing the most logical out come).

Now I use betus online. I go to the site covers.com, then go to odds, and throughout the week I watch for the largest possible difference in point spreads between the opening spread and the current spread on betus. I have noticed that a 3 point difference throughout the week is usually as high as it goes (sometimes more). The difference in the poinspread reflects the public opinion of the game (who people are betting on). I simply bet against public opinion and essentially get 3 points.

Now, I find 10 games I like (each having a spread difference from the opener of 3 or more) and bet on each of them straight up. My goal is simply to win more than I lose.

Week one I was 6 for 10, week two I was 8 for ten, and week 3 I was 8 for 10.

I never parlay, and I never tease.

Not sure if this is frowned upon or not, but I'm having a ball with it.

J

Would like to congratulate you on recognizing that there is value betting against the public and choosing to be on the linesmaker and bookies side. They stay in business because they are sharper than the average Joe and your methodology fits what I have been searching for. A method to take advantage of the ;imesmakers expertise and the publics perception framed by the talk shows and sportscasters. Great work. I am going to do the same.

johnnyutah20 · 10-02-09, 04:13 PM

Thanks for your thoughts. Like I said, not sure if it's air -tight, but it's working. First time I've ever deliberately gone against public perception. Could be what I've been missing all along.

1CEMAN · 10-05-09, 08:04 PM

Amazing

Karayilan9 · 10-06-09, 04:14 PM

It depends on your bankroll, for a large bankroll money management is very important, for anybody starting up new I wouldn't encourage them to get carried away and put in an amount they really can't afford to loose. Everything you read here you won't do in real life when your first starting, got to learn from the mistakes so keep the learning period to very low stakes. Once you've gone through rough patches, overcome them, understand the game and start winning week after week, month after month, then you'll be ready for the next step but it won't be easy so don't think its free money.

For new starters and people with very small bankrolls this won't apply, when I was in the learning phase I would deposit small amounts like $50 or $100, get a bonus free play, and double up each play. So say you go on a 4-5 game run wagering odds on average +100, 50 X 2 ---> 100 X 2 ----> 200 X 2 ---> 400 X 2, 800 X 2. 4-5 plays later you got over 1K, if you loose you loose $50 which is nothing in the grand scheme of things, go on a few 4-5 game runs and you'll soon start building up. Your not going to get anywhere using money management with a few hundred bucks but once you have a few K or few 10K then you have to be much more serious.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 10-06-09, 05:40 PM

Please remove the link to my capping formula.

SO THE SBR FORUM CAN'T DELETE POSTS??? DELETE THE POST.

Karylian, that strategy would probably lead to most of these ******s losing $50 over and over again. Because it's kind of tough to just from a standing start, take off and hit 5 games in a row. Although last year I finished the mlb season with 5 parlays in a row, but I was warmed up.

DELETE THE LINK. PLEASE. and give up on being a tout, some just don't have it.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 10-06-09, 05:42 PM

Not, you Karalyin, keep posting. I'll check your soccer picks out if you don't mind. Really don't know much about futbol.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 10-06-09, 05:49 PM

Do it bitch.

Or, bitch do it.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 10-06-09, 05:52 PM

DID JUSTIN 7 GET A MESSAGE FOR THREATING TO PRY POSTERS TOENAILS OFF, BECAUSE THEY WERE (I GUESS) COMPLAINING ABOUT SPORTSBOOK.COM??

HE DIDN'T GET BANNED FOR THAT DID HE? but you guys can all suck my dick.

Karayilan9 · 10-06-09, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

SO THE SBR FORUM CAN'T DELETE POSTS??? DELETE THE POST.

Karylian, that strategy would probably lead to most of these ******s losing $50 over and over again. Because it's kind of tough to just from a standing start, take off and hit 5 games in a row. Although last year I finished the mlb season with 5 parlays in a row, but I was warmed up.

The thing is alot of people put in $500's or $1000's end up loosing it then put in the same again loose it again and repeat this cycle until they are barreled in. Its better for people new to the game to start at the lowest of stakes, if they loose a few $50's their not gonna go broke and hopefully they'll learn from the experience or manage to go on a run.

I see it so many times, people wagering amounts they can't afford to loose and wondering how it all went wrong.

To carry out what I described above, you need to be a good capper who doesn't have access to a big bankroll, there is nothing like turning $100 into a few $1000's.

See you in the futbol thread

GELATINOUS CUBE · 10-07-09, 01:12 AM

RIGHT ON DUDE. I AGREE, AND I SPECIALIZE IN TURNING $50 OR USUALLY $200 IN TO 1000s

[

All these niggaz talk about $50,000 bankrolls, but I can tell they suck at capping, or maybe USED TO BE good. But I agree, Balooning a hundred bucks is nice.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 10-07-09, 01:15 AM

I like to play $5 bets all day, and then when I see something ..... plunk 2-300 or so on it.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 10-26-09, 03:25 AM

Thanks for the delete.
Update, you guys don't have to suck my d. I take that back, cuz i've been posting in the pz and i've only gone like 50% plus a few units.
Those are kind of ass bets though, in real life i've tripled my bank, for 300% gain, so 62-67%, about right, since posting my system (at 3 am after a winning night at the book).
Still haven't found joe dog, mr.x, or unitage's threads.
I like +170s again, i said i don't like them at 3 am.
I apologize for talking crap though, but where is joe dog and mr.x's fundamentals for winning consistently?

shantystar · 10-26-09, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by JimmyJet

Would like to congratulate you on recognizing that there is value betting against the public and choosing to be on the Linesmaker and bookies side. They stay in business because they are sharper than the average Joe and your methodology fits what I have been searching for. A method to take advantage of the ;imesmakers expertise and the publics perception framed by the talk shows and sportscasters. Great work. I am going to do the same.

interesting!

jds07v · 11-02-09, 12:42 AM

i make my own lines on sunday for college football. that way, when the lines come out sunday night, i can pounce on the ones i like. then i look for line movement the rest of the week

blix177 · 11-02-09, 01:32 AM

Be the bookie, with dumb players.

Limit max risk

skrtelfan · 11-06-09, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by SportsJuggernaut

I am the actual author of the system. I was actually very surprised to see it on this forum by browsing google for scorepage..

So you claim to be "the author" of the concept of flat betting?

Frankly, if I authored something that poorly written I wouldn't be bragging about it being my "copyrighted content."

WileOut · 11-06-09, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by johnnyutah20

Well we all have our theories. My formula may be considered by some to be fairly rudimentary but I have been above 50% since the beginning of the football season 2009. I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. Maybe I'm way off, but what can I say? It's working.

My strategy is based on the principle that the opening line established by bookmakers is a number to be trusted (I know about sucker lines etc., but for the most part, the opening line represents a calculated number representing the most logical out come).

Now I use betus online. I go to the site covers.com, then go to odds, and throughout the week I watch for the largest possible difference in point spreads between the opening spread and the current spread on betus. I have noticed that a 3 point difference throughout the week is usually as high as it goes (sometimes more). The difference in the poinspread reflects the public opinion of the game (who people are betting on). I simply bet against public opinion and essentially get 3 points.

Now, I find 10 games I like (each having a spread difference from the opener of 3 or more) and bet on each of them straight up. My goal is simply to win more than I lose.

Week one I was 6 for 10, week two I was 8 for ten, and week 3 I was 8 for 10.

I never parlay, and I never tease.

Not sure if this is frowned upon or not, but I'm having a ball with it.

J

I would like to hear opinions about this. The opening line is the line that is put out there to be shaped into what is considered a sharper line. Its a starting point to get to where the book wants to be. Thats why the books that put the openers out there limit the amount you can bet on the opening line until they get some input from their sharp bettors.

From what I have read in the past, you are getting a line that is sharpened up. You aren't getting a better line, you are getting a worse line. The better side to be on would be the opening line if it moves 3 points.

I guess it depends on the book too, but I know I would be right by saying that pinnacle's lines get sharper as the week goes on. I would think that most books get sharper as time goes by. If you use pinnacle, and bet the lines that move 3 points, you are going to lose long term.

That is why people buy those expensive line services....so they can try to get the line BEFORE it moves 3 points like in your example johnnyutah20. You are getting the bad number. Or maybe BET365 moves its lines based on square money, who knows.

Anybody else care to comment on this?