I have a local book that consistently shades overs on player props, or posts odds on the same numbers that are not in line with others. Example: Last week DK, Fanduel and others had Stefon Diggs receptions at 7.5 under -125, but my book had the same number at under +125. I jumped on the under and won it. That's an easy one. A consistent pattern I see is this: Hypothetical. DK Sportsbook has Player A rush prop at 72.5 over -130, but my book will have Player A at 78.5 -115 either. Is the 6-yard difference at under-115 +EV? What would be the threshold for attacking or laying off? Any advise, links, etc. is much appreciated!
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i would generally think about betting both sides of a prop like this and trying to middle it. Instinctively I would think at these odds being somewhat heavy commission it might not be +EV. My calculation would be you are giving either $7.50 commission or $15 commission to win $100 (two $50 bets over 72.5 and under 78.5) Therefore one pays about 10-1 and the other 7.5-1. You have 3 numbers 73,74,75 and 76,77,78 to hit either bet. I correlate that with 3X10+30 and 3X7.5+21.5 number of yards on either side of the middle. Therefore total yards would need to be expected to be between 102.5 and 57.5 a huge percentage of the time to make this plus EV. I might consider playing a this 6 point spread on rushing yards if lines were -110 on each side. Of course the lower the total the more profitable a spread like this might be. I would jump on a spread of rushing yards of 27.5-33.5 at -110 but a receiving yards of 94.5-100.5 would not be profitable.Comment -
We can start with the assumption that the higher volume, lower vig sportsbook is closer to true odds. Let's say that sportsbook has the line on a RB rushing yards over 72.5 -130 and under +110. That means a roughly 54% chance he gets 73 yards or more, and 45% chance he gets 72 or fewer. (If those estimates are wrong, then just bet those numbers). To decide if under 78.5 is a good bet, we have to estimate the chance he rushes for 73 to 78 yards. If you are paying -115, that means there needs to be an 8% chance he gets between 73 and 78 yards for to overcome the house edge, and I would say at least 9% for it to be a good bet. At those numbers, I would skip it. But I would now know that there is a place that is offering off-market player props and keep an eye on it.Comment -
I appreciate your thought-out responses. Thanks for taking the time. Currently, DK has Josh Allen at 302.5 under -150 and my book has it at 290.5 -115. With a 12-yard difference at -115, would you lay off passing props like this, or go over?Comment
